why aren't all 235 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Ballmer: US Air Force was Microsoft's first big Windows customer
“Our first big Windows customer, at least as I remember it, was the US Air Force, and they were buying single copies of Windows.”
Disclosure
Ballmer: Microsoft entered search in 2003 with zero native capability
“And we jumped in in 2003, I think we pushed. Now, you'd say five years is a lot, or you could say five years isn't that much. You could say we had no birthright. I mean, it's just a completely separate thing. We had no capability. We had nobody who'd grown up …”
Insight
Gilbert: Web applications enabled continuous shipping over multi-year software release cycles
“For the first time in history, you actually could. All these companies with big climbing, Microsoft would ship every three years with a service pack once a year. It's a whole new era where all you have to do is, you know, upload some new PHP code to the FTP se…”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Microsoft offered around $1M to acquire Zuckerberg's high school software Synapse
“Yeah, and I think Microsoft was one of them, too. It was for, like, a million-dollar acquisition offer or something like that.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Facebook revenue reached $48 million in 2006
“In 2006, with this Microsoft partnership, that jumps to forty eight million dollars in revenue.”
Assertion Partly supported
Rosenthal: Facebook had $150M revenue and broke even during 2007 Microsoft deal
“Facebook at this point in time is basically break even and doing one hundred and fifty million in revenue, most of which is Microsoft itself.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Facebook reached $153 million in revenue in 2007
“And then the next year in 2007, again, I think almost all of this is Microsoft, that goes to a hundred and fifty three million dollars in revenue.”
Assertion Partly supported
Facebook Handled No Native Ad Targeting When Sheryl Sandberg Joined
“And when she comes on board, like you referenced this earlier, Ben, there's Basically no ad targeting that's happening natively on Facebook. Like there probably is targeting that's happening through the third party Microsoft advertising network, but none of th…”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Microsoft pursued Facebook in 2007 after missing search to Google
“Microsoft, perhaps obvious now in retrospect to everybody, really just wants to buy the company. But Mark's, of course, not gonna do that after the whole Yahoo experience, etc. Microsoft is also happy, though, to just keep the partnership going and expand it, …”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: LinkedIn generates over $16B in annual revenue
“Sixteen billion plus in revenue today.”
Assertion Partly supported
Microsoft's Entertainment & Devices lost $1.4B on $4B revenue in 2006
“If you look at the E&D reporting over time, let's start back in 2006. They generated four billion dollars in revenue, lost 1.4 billion dollars operating loss.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Windows 95 lacked an internet browser at launch
“There was one thing. That was missing from Windows 95 at launch. That if you were a consumer user of technology, of software, of products, of operating systems, maybe you kind of wanted to have. And that was an internet browser.”
Assertion Partly supported
Gilbert: Microsoft grew annual revenue from $6B to $80B between 1995 and 2014
“From 1995, where we start our story, To 2014, where we will end this episode, Microsoft grew their annual revenue from six billion to eighty billion.”
Assertion Supported
Microsoft's Enterprise Business Has Never Had a Down Year Except 2008
“The enterprise motion of Microsoft has basically never had a down year. I mean, 2008 in the Great Recession. But other than that, like, chug, chug, chug, chug, chug, even through the bad Windows releases.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: J Allard's 1994 memo coined Microsoft's 'embrace, extend, innovate' strategy
“In January, 1994, when a young Windows networking engineer named James Allard, or J as he goes by, writes a memo to Bill Gates and to the senior leadership At Microsoft entitled Windows, the next killer application for the internet. And in this memo, he points…”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Ballmer declared Microsoft 'all in' on cloud at UW in 2010
“In 2010, Ray Ozzie actually leaves the company, but as he's doing, he and Steve roll Red Dog, by this point in time renamed Azure, back into the server and tools business, and the two of them go to the University of Washington, and Steve gives a speech at the …”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: FTC deadlocked 2-2 on Microsoft antitrust penalties in 1993
“So in July, 1993, the FTC commissioners vote on whether Microsoft is a monopoly that deserves further action and penalties, and they deadlock at two to two, which means essentially a win for Microsoft. No action would be taken against the company.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Microsoft invested $240M in Facebook at $15B valuation in 2007
“So the terms of the deal are, in October, 2007, Microsoft invests two hundred and forty million dollars for 1.6% of Facebook. So for those trying to do the math at home, that is a fifteen billion dollar valuation on the deal. Microsoft will get the exclusive r…”
Assertion Partly supported
Rosenthal: Dave Cutler built Azure's original hypervisor from scratch
“Cutler builds a new hypervisor that Azure runs on from scratch without using open source like himself.”
Assertion Partly supported
Rosenthal: Appellate court permitted Microsoft to bundle IE into Windows in 1998
“Microsoft appeals Judge Jackson's order, and in early May, 1998, the appellate court rules that Microsoft can continue shipping Windows with IE bundled into it, and also continue to bundle any other features that they want as part of Windows, as long as it ben…”
Assertion Partly supported
Gilbert: Windows and Office franchises generate more revenue today than ever
“Windows and Office have proven to be these ridiculously durable franchises generating more revenue today than ever.”
Assertion Supported
Judge Jackson Ordered Microsoft Broken Up Into Two Companies in June 2000
“On June seventh, 2000, Judge Jackson issues the final judgment in the case, and he rules that Microsoft did indeed abuse its monopoly power, and as a remedy for having done so, he orders that Microsoft be broken up. Into at least two separate companies. Separa…”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: TVI provided Microsoft's only outside capital before its IPO
“The only outside capital into the company before IPO from TVI, and then Dave went on to co-found August Capital, where he's a partner emeritus these days.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Xbox Live achieved 40 million subscribers by 2012
“This is a group of people that went and created Xbox Live that by 20 12 had forty million subscribers.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jul 2024
Gilbert: US PC Household Penetration Grew From 10% in 1986 to 62% in 2003
“The US household penetration of personal computers, again, flashing back pre-IPO, was only eight percent. So that whole doubling year over year over year, By Microsoft's IPO, they still only got to around 10% of penetrating the U.S. By 1997, 13 years later, it…”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Releasing Office for iPad was among Nadella's first CEO moves
“The year later, we did ship it actually right after Satya became CEO. That was one of the first things he did.”
Assertion Partly supported
Gilbert: Microsoft revenue grew 3.5x to $84B during Ballmer's CEO tenure
“Revenue went from twenty three billion to eighty four billion. That's a three and a half X over 14 years. Operating income went from twelve billion to thirty billion. So almost a three X.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Microsoft held over 90% share of PC operating system sales
“The fact is that they had over 90% of PC operating system sales.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Three-Quarters of Corporate PCs Still Ran XP in 2009
“Even as late as 2009, so three and a half years after launch, something like that, three quarters of corporate PCs are still running XP and had never upgraded to Vista.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Microsoft Extended XP OEM Sales Two Years Post-Vista
“Microsoft OEMs were so unhappy because consumers didn't want to buy Vista machines. Microsoft had to extend the ability for their OEM partners to keep selling XP machines to consumers for another two years after this.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Microsoft Intelligent Cloud generated $88B in fiscal 2023 revenue
“In fiscal, twenty-twenty-three, Intelligent Cloud did eighty-eight billion dollars in revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Ray Ozzie began recruiting for Project Red Dog in January 2006
“And so in January, 2006, Ray with Steve Bomber's full blessing goes and starts recruiting for a secret project within Microsoft incubated outside any of the existing divisions.”
Assertion Partly supported
Rosenthal: Single-year enterprise agreements drove 15% of Microsoft's 2007 revenue
“40% of all dollars were flowing from multi-year EAs, and then another 15% of all dollars that Microsoft was earning as revenue were flowing from single-year EAs.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Microsoft offered $24B to acquire Facebook in 2007
“Microsoft puts an offer on the table. It's a very complex deal structure, but effectively what it does is it lets Facebook shareholders cash out over a long period of time as the company's value grew. So you're not taking all your money off the table today. An…”
Assertion Partly supported
Rosenthal: Multi-year enterprise agreements were 40% of Microsoft's 2007 revenue
“By 2007, analysts estimated that 40%, four zero, of all of Microsoft's revenue, which I think was about fifty one billion dollars that year. So 40% of fifty one billion dollars Came from multi-year enterprise agreements.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Windows Phone's Metro UI Design Originated from Microsoft Zune
“We're defining a really breakthrough new user interface called Metro that actually came from the Zune, which is funny that that's its lineage.”
Assertion Supported
AOL bought browser maker Booklink for $30M during Microsoft licensing talks
“They start negotiating. They're talking about a, call it, two million dollar license deal. And all of a sudden, AOL comes in and buys the whole company of Booklink for thirty million dollars.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gilbert: Microsoft resisted open source until around 2014 to 2015
“They never at all wanted to be a part of anything that open source developers were doing until a couple of years into Azure. Not until, 20, 1415.”
Assertion Partly supported
Microsoft Market Cap Dropped 55% in 12 Months Following Antitrust Findings
“From late 19 99, when the findings of Fact came out, over the next 12 months, Microsoft's market cap dropped from six hundred billion to two hundred and seventy billion. Which was a 55% drop.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Ballmer's famous 2000 stage dance occurred during breakup threat
“The crazy dancing on stage. I love this company. That was in September of 2000. When they thought they were gonna get broken up.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Internet Explorer held roughly 90% market share in November 2001
“At this moment in time, Internet Explorer has right around 90% market share.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
The early Windows OEM go-to-market team was only about 20 people
“I think the Microsoft OEM team for Windows was like 20 people or something. Before the enterprise, in this era that we're talking about, the group of people responsible for go-to-market for Windows was really small.”
Assertion Supported
Half of Microsoft's revenue came from Japan by 1979
“And by the next year, in 1979, half of Microsoft's revenue is coming from Japan, which is wild.”
Assertion Supported
A team of only 65 people shipped Microsoft Windows 3.1
“I mean, it was 65 people that shipped Windows 3.1.”
Assertion Partly supported
IBM and Microsoft officially dissolved their OS/2 partnership by late 1990
“By the end of 1990, the Microsoft IBM divorce is official. IBM takes full control of OS two development back from Microsoft. Microsoft ceases involvement.”
Assertion Supported
Apple licensing Microsoft BASIC in 1977 was their first commercial deal
“And that's the first deal that happens between the companies. I mean, there's so many deals done both directions, commercial deals, equity deals, legal disputes in both directions. And this is the very first time that they do something together.”
Assertion Supported
The first version of Microsoft Excel was built for the Macintosh
“Far and away, the first thing to point out is the first version of Microsoft Excel was for the Mac.”
Assertion Partly supported
Microsoft IPO'd at a $750M market cap with $200M in revenue
“When Microsoft itself would go public a few years later in 1986, they actually go public the same week that they moved to the big campus in Redmond, where they are to this day. Their market cap at IPO is only seven hundred and fifty million dollars, despite ha…”