why aren't all 38 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
What-if
Lockheed Would Have Failed Without Its Missiles and Space Division
“And really, as we'll see, this division, you know, not Skunk Works, this division kept Lockheed alive. Lockheed would have absolutely died without this division.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gilbert: Future breakthrough defense innovation won't come from Lockheed's Skunk Works
“It's very likely that the Skunk Works mentality ends up solving more problems for our country, but probably not from the Skunk Works division of Lockheed Martin.”
What-if
Silicon Valley Wouldn't Exist Without Cold War Defense Competition
“All the things we just talked about, Silicon Valley itself, for God's sakes, wouldn't have existed without this.”
Opinion
Lockheed Missiles and Space Had a Bigger Impact Than Skunk Works
“What LMSC, Lockheed Missiles and Space Company, did, I honestly think, like, it is bigger impact to the country, to the world, and certainly on business to Lockheed and to Silicon Valley than Skunk Works.”
Insight
The Five Major Defense Primes Acknowledge Stasis and Rotate Contracts
“All these contracts kind of go to all of the contractors. They just rotate around who's the prime on it, and the prime makes the most money, and then it has the most sort of sway, and you don't want to be with a subcontractor, you'd rather be the prime contrac…”
Assertion Supported
The Pentagon Ordered Defense Prime Contractors to Consolidate in 1993
“The then Deputy Defense Secretary William Perry calls the CEOs of all the major prime defense contractors to a dinner in Washington. At which he explicitly tells them defense spending is going to shrink massively. Duh, you know that. And he instructs the CEOs …”
What-if
Without Lockheed in Silicon Valley, Apple Would Not Exist
“No Lockheed, no Woz in Silicon Valley, no Apple.”
Insight
Defense Manufacturing Distributes Across States to Incentivize Congressional Funding
“And the reason that it's in 46 states is because That way, basically, every member of Congress is incented to vote for it.”
Opinion
Gilbert: Anduril and Palantir Win Top Defense Software Talent Over Primes
“I think the reputation in the industry is, if you're a fantastic software engineer, you're probably gonna go to a more interesting modern company, and that's why you see the Andurils of the world and the Palantirs of the world kind of sucking up top talent tha…”
Assertion Supported
Lockheed Martin Receives $50 Billion Annually from the US Government
“About half of the defense budget is spent on contractors, like Lockheed Martin, and of that 400 that's spent on contractors, fifty billion goes to Lockheed. They are the single largest recipient of federal spending as a contractor, full stop.”
Assertion Supported
Lockheed Bribery Scandals Toppled Japan's Prime Minister in the 1970s
“In the Netherlands, in Japan, and in Saudi Arabia, it comes to light that Lockheed employees and contractors are paying bribes to political officials to win contracts. This actually brings down the Japanese Prime Minister at the time.”
Assertion Supported
Lockheed Required a Congressional $250M Government Loan Guarantee to Survive
“So the government has to guarantee a two hundred and fifty million dollar loan to Lockheed to keep them afloat, mostly because of the L-Ten-Eleven disaster. It requires a vote of Congress to do this.”
Assertion Supported
LMSC Generated 128% of Lockheed's Total Profits Between 1960 and 1972
“During the 12 year period from 1960 when Corona first launched to 1972. Lockheed as a whole did twenty six billion in revenue over that 12 year period, and just two hundred and fifty five million in total profit. Not a high margin company during that period. L…”
Assertion Partly supported
Gilbert: F-22 program delivered 187 planes for $62 billion total cost
“The final, down from seven 50 to three 39, is 187 planes delivered. They kept the sixty two billion dollar total program cost fixed.”
Assertion Supported
Virtually No Aircraft Manufacturers Make Their Own Engines Today
“That's interesting that the value chain evolved this way, where basically no aircraft manufacturers to this day make their own engines. In commercial, you've got Rolls-Royce, GE, but every single one of these Lockheed planes, the engines are made by someone el…”
Assertion Supported
John Northrop Helped Found Three of Five Prime Defense Contractors
“So this one dude was responsible for founding or playing a major role in three of the remaining five defense prime contractors today.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Fighter jet contracts rarely go to the same prime consecutively
“Fighter jets are typically not made by the same company two generations in a row, although Lockheed Martin has sort of shown with the F-Twenty-two and the F-thirty-five that they have won that.”
Assertion Partly supported
Skunk Works Delivered the U-2 Spy Plane in 18 Months for $3.5M
“So Skunk Works completes and delivers the plane by July, 1955. So like a year and a half and for a total project cost of three and a half million dollars.”
Assertion Supported
US Sourced Soviet Titanium Through Dummy Corporations for the SR-71
“So the government and Lockheed set up a bunch of dummy corporations. In Europe, like European incorporated dummy corporations. Yes. And they source a large amount of the titanium that goes into the Blackbirds, the A-Twelfs and then the Blackbirds, out of the S…”
Assertion Supported
The F-35 Is the Largest Defense Equipment Purchase in History
“Lockheed Martin, this is an enormous win to win this program, and it is among us and our allies the largest ever purchase anyone has ever made for any piece of defense equipment.”
Assertion Contradicted
The US Government Saved Lockheed from Bankruptcy for the Kennen Satellite
“The government didn't let Lockheed go out of business in the 19 seventies. This was right as the Kennen satellite project was getting going. We could not let Lockheed go out of business because we needed that.”
Assertion Supported
Sega Co-Developed 3D Arcade Graphics Hardware with Lockheed Martin
“Sega co-developed those boards with Lockheed Martin.”
Assertion Supported
Lockheed Was an Early Stanford Industrial Park Tenant and Major Employer
“One of the very first tenants of Stanford Industrial Park. Ben, you were talking about customers. Customer who would go on to become the single largest employer in the area in proto-Silicon Valley by a huge margin. Was a new secret division of Lockheed.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Lockheed lost $2.5 billion on the L-1011 commercial airliner
“All told, we won't go into the whole history here, but the L-Ten-Eleven airliner project loses Lockheed. Two and a half billion dollars.”
Opinion
The U-2 Program Delivered Louisiana Purchase Levels of Government Value
“I think you could make an analogy to, like, the Louisiana Purchase in terms of, like, best deals that the United States government ever got relative to, like, the benefit to America.”
Assertion Supported
Peak Skunk Works Had Just 50 Engineers and 100 Machinists
“And at its most productive, Skunk Works I think was about maybe 50 designers and engineers and maybe a hundred machinists and shop people.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Lockheed Martin continues selling F-16 fighter jets today
“And it is still, they call it out in their earnings like today. They're still selling F-sixteens today.”
Assertion Supported
Malcolm Loughead Invented the Modern Automotive Hydraulic Brake System
“He invented the modern hydraulic brake system for automobiles, so every time you press the brake in your cars, you're using Malcolm Lockheed's technology.”
Assertion Partly supported
Lockheed Built the First US Jet Fighter Prototype in 143 Days
“In this circus tent in a parking lot, Kelly and this super elite team from Lockheed build the first prototype U.S. Fighter jet named the Lulu Bell in 143 days start to finish.”
Assertion Open · timeframe May 2023
Gilbert: F-35 generates 20% of Lockheed Martin's total net sales
“The F-thirty-five, I believe, is the largest program, generating 20% of all net sales across all segments.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: US Air Force bought 59 F-117s for $2.5B
“The Air Force starts taking delivery in 1983 of the stealth fighter from Skunk Works. They ultimately buy 59 of them, of the F-one-seventeen-A Nighthawks, at forty-three million dollars each. So that is two and a half billion dollars in revenue for Lockheed.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: LMSC generated 46% of revenue and 72% of Lockheed's profit from 1983 to 1992
“And then during the early post-Cold War period from 1983 to 1992, LMSC accounted for 46% of revenue, so growing percentage of revenue, and 72% of profits during that ten-year period.”
Assertion Supported
Robert Gross Bought Lockheed Out of Bankruptcy for Just $40,000
“And the craziest thing, this price that he bought it for, 40,000 dollars, was so low that Alan Lockheed actually considered bidding to buy his company back when they had it on the auction block, and his considered bid was 50,000 dollars, but he thought, that i…”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: F-35 initial order book was ~3,000 aircraft worth $200B
“The initial order book is approximately 3000 airplanes worth a potential two hundred billion dollars for the total program cost.”
Assertion Supported
$50 Billion of Lockheed's $66 Billion Annual Revenue Comes from US
“Sixty-six billion dollars was Lockheed's total revenue last year, of which fifty billion came from the U.S. Federal government.”
Assertion Supported
Lockheed's Skunk Works Created Area 51 to Test the U-2
“This is Area-Fifty-One. Skunk Works creates Area-fifty-one.”
Assertion Supported
Britain's RAF Was Lockheed's Biggest Customer Before US Entered WWII
“Lockheed's big customer in World War II before the U.S. Enters was Britain's Royal Air Force. They were a way bigger customer than the U.S. Was for many, many years.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Over 10,000 P-38 Lightnings were produced during World War II
“They made over 10,000 of them during the war, and all of the top aces in the U.S. Army Air Corps flew them.”