why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chang: Tim Cook told me in 2011 that Intel cannot run a foundry
“And anyway, he told me there's nothing to worry about because Intel just does not know how to be a Foundry.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chang: None of Taiwan's PC makers liked dealing with Intel
“Before this Apple thing, Apple and we, before Apple became our customer, I knew a lot of Intel's customers in Taiwan. You know, all the PC makers are Intel's customers. I mean, they, none of them liked Intel. None of them.”
Disclosure
Chang: TSMC matched Intel in technology and beat it in manufacturing in 2011
“Technology. At that time, we thought we were almost at par with Intel. Almost. In fact, I thought we were, I think I thought we were at par with Intel at that time. Manufacturing. I thought we were better than Intel. And customer trust. We thought that our cus…”
Opinion
Bathgate: TSMC surpassed Intel because vertical integration forced impossible multi-front technological battles
“Intel has to fight TSMC on process technology, which, like, in itself is one of the hardest things, you know, any technology companies had to do over the last 20 years, and that's why Intel has been surpassed by TSMC, right?”
What-if
Rosenthal: Without ARM, Intel probably would make all iPhone chips
“Like, if ARM hadn't become such a viable CPU architecture platform, and Apple hadn't standardized, you know, their Apple Silicon on ARM, Probably Intel would be making all of the chips that go into your iPhone, all the leading edge chips that go into your iPho…”
What-if
Johns: Intel should have adopted ARM's IP licensing model for mobile chips
“They came down, they came out with a cheaper version of it, but in reality, that's not what they should have done. They should have, you know, actually embraced a totally different business model like arm dead. We're just, they were just selling IP and enablin…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chang: Apple was not actively considering Intel foundry in 2010
“No, Apple Was not actively considering intel. That came later.”
Assertion Supported
Chang: TSMC led foundries at 28nm, but trailed Intel
“At 28 nanometers, we were very definitely the leader among foundries. Yeah. And maybe among a few other companies such as Texas Instruments and so on, but not Intel.”
Assertion Supported
Intel invested over $4 billion into EUV technology in 2012 before stalling
“Intel actually saw extreme UV lithography, EUV first. So Intel was the biggest early investor in EUV, committing more than four billion to it in 2012.”
Opinion
Taiwan implicitly mandated Morris Chang to build an Intel, not a foundry
“And I do think the implication was go start an Intel, or go start an IBM. It wasn't go start the very first pure play foundry.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: IBM PC's x86 standardization shifted computing leadership to Intel
“Well, then the architecture standardizes on x 86 and boom, there goes the whole next generation of computing away from TI over to Intel.”
Opinion
Rosenthal: Intel's 1999 Dedicated GPUs Were Historic Failures
“They come out with their own external cards right around this time, like, 1999 to directly compete. And like, they suck. Like, these are like some of the worst reviewed graphics cards in history.”
Opinion
Bathgate: Cadence is taking digital EDA market share from Synopsys
“We do think they're taking market share, especially in digital markets, like where they would be selling to an Intel or an Apple or an Nvidia. We think they're the share gainer, but both companies, it's like an extremely high quality duopoly.”
Assertion Partly supported
Bathgate: Intel, TSMC, and Samsung bought 25% of ASML to fund EUV
“Intel and TSMC and Samsung partnered and actually bought 25% of ASML to inject capital into ASML to develop EUV systems.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Intel Upgrades Old Fabs Rather Than Keeping Legacy Capacity
“Intel It is constantly taking their existing fab footprint and repurposing it and upgrading it for the leading edge, which, you know, on the one hand is great. It's utilizing their assets, you know, for the most valuable, highest valuable products. On the othe…”
Assertion Partly supported
Gilbert: Intel controls 80% of computer processors and more in servers
“They still control 80% of the computer processor market, and they have an even bigger share in servers.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Apple Silicon traces from ARM and DEC through Intel and P.A. Semi
“Lineage of all of Apple Silicon, probably the most valuable, defensible part of Apple today in terms of technology, was Armandec to Intel to PA Semi to Apple.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2024
MITS negotiated Intel's 8080 chip price down from $360 to $75
“The list price from Intel for the 8080 chip was 360 dollars... He managed to negotiate a volume deal with Intel to get eighty-eighty chips at 75 bucks a pop.”
Assertion Supported
Nvidia spent five years building platforms to replace Intel's x86 data centers
“NVIDIA has literally just spent the past five years working insanely hard to build a new computing platform for The data center, a GPU accelerated computing platform to, in their minds, replace the old CPU led Intel dominated x-eighty six architecture in the d…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gilbert: Acquired's COVID adaptation episodes were their least-listened to
“It was like our three least listened to episodes covering a pretty amazing stories, but we just branded it wrong. Like Canlis is like the most interesting restaurant story you could ever hear about. And like, we did Intel. That's the only time we've ever done …”
Assertion Partly supported
Intel Divested From Funding ASML's EUV Development, Doubting Its Ultimate Viability
“In the early 2000, even Intel, I think, funded ASML's development, a big industry consortium, including Intel, of the EUV, and then thought the technology was gonna die, and so I think three or four years in, divested.”