why aren't all 98 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Facebook Acquired Onavo to Track Competitor Network Traffic and App Usage
“Well, in 2013, Facebook acquired a small Israeli company called Onavo, and Onavo was exactly what you just said, Ben. A VPN, actually, I think it initially started as, like, a data compression tool, so if you were worried about your data plan, which was Really…”
Assertion Supported
UK probe found Facebook told Cambridge Analytica to delete data in 2015
“The conclusion was that the quiz was taken by 320,000 people. Since those people had access to friends, the total surface area was the public profile data of eighty-seven million Facebook users. They also found that Facebook had requested that Cambridge Analyt…”
Assertion Contradicted
Turning Off Meta Ads Actually Reduces User Engagement in Some Markets
“There are markets in the world today where I think Meta has run this test, where if you turn off ads, In the, you know, meta family of apps products, engagement in those products actually goes down, which is just, like, freaking wild.”
Assertion Partly supported
Zuckerberg: Facebook board tried to fire him after rejecting Yahoo's $1B offer
“In 2006, Yahoo wanted to buy the company for a billion dollars, and everyone on our management team wanted to sell it, and the board tried to fire me, and everyone, and basically in the next year, everyone else on the management team left because they, I hadn'…”
Assertion Supported
Google Owns Eight Distinct Products With Over One Billion Users
“It is wild that this one company has eight products with over a billion users and started this era with just one search that didn't even have a billion users yet, but search, Android, Chrome, YouTube, Gmail, Maps, Drive, Photos, and then if you count the Play …”
Assertion Supported
Facebook Avoided First-Day IPO Crash Only Due to Underwriting Bank Intervention
“Facebook shares end the day at 38 dollars and 23 cents, up 23 cents from the IPO price, but only because all of the underwriting banks in the IPO stepped in to buy shares and support the price, which was totally crashing throughout the day.”
Assertion Contradicted
Facebook Became Consistently Profitable Roughly 18 Months After Founding
“They lost money and not that much money for like a year and a half, and then from that point on, they were just profitable.”
Assertion Contradicted
Rosenthal: Facebook's Newsfeed was the invention of the web feed
“They didn't exist. This was the first one. This was the invention of the feed.”
Assertion Supported
Mark Zuckerberg Turned Down a $24 Billion Acquisition Offer From Microsoft
“Less than two years later, he turned down twenty four billion and that they were really good for the money. It's Microsoft.”
Assertion Supported
WhatsApp Has Surpassed 100 Million Monthly Active Users in the US
“WhatsApp has a hundred million now in the US, which this is sort of a big narrative violation that WhatsApp will never catch on in the US, and iMessage is dominant, and even after that it's, you know, text message. This is crazy. A hundred million people a mon…”
Assertion Supported
Zuckerberg Negotiated Facebook's $1B Instagram Acquisition Over a Single Weekend
“Not to mention, on top of it all, we're not gonna go into it here because we had a whole episode on Facebook and Instagram, but this was done over two days, over the course of a weekend. Mark didn't do a whole lot of socializing this before pulling the trigger…”
Assertion Supported
Zuckerberg Rejected Yahoo Acquisition After Terry Semel Lowered $1B Offer
“So Mark actually agrees to the Yahoo deal. Billion dollars. It's gonna be all in stock. Yahoo's gonna buy the company. In the interim between when they shake hands on the deal and while the docs are being drafted, Yahoo announces their quarterly earnings, and …”
Assertion Supported
Meta Built a Hyperscaler-Sized Data Center Footprint Exclusively for Internal Use
“They now last year spent twenty-eight billion dollars in capex, which you should mostly read as data centers. They operate a Hyper-scaler-sized data center footprint, give or take. You know, you think AWS, Azure, Microsoft, and Google Cloud. Meta is the fourth…”
Assertion Partly supported
Zuckerberg: Facebook board tried firing him over $1B Yahoo offer
“In 2006, Yahoo wanted to buy the company for a billion dollars, and everyone on our management team wanted to sell it, and the board tried to fire me, and everyone, and basically in the next year, everyone else on the management team left because they, I hadn'…”
Assertion Supported
Zuckerberg: Facebook paused feature development for a year during mobile rewrite
“We basically took, I think it must have been like a year or something, we were just like, look, we're gonna pause feature development of the company, Because it's hard enough to do a rewrite, right? So if you look at, like, the history of the tech industry, th…”
Assertion Supported
Calacanis: Chamath Palihapitiya invented 'growth hacking' at Facebook
“There is no equivalent of growth. That was, the idea of growth hacking didn't exist as a term until Chamath did what he did.”
Assertion Contradicted
Friendster CEO Tim Koogle blocked Benchmark from investing in Facebook's Series A
“Specifically what happened was Benchmark had invested in Friendster, and so was conflicted out. Now you could argue that was an unavoidable mistake, you know, but like, boy does that hurt. And supposedly, I think it was Bob Kegel who was on the board of Friend…”
Assertion Partly supported
Ten Percent of Facebook Users Joined a Group Protesting News Feed
“10% of the entire global user base signs up for a group, a Facebook group called Students Against Facebook News Feed.”
Assertion Partly supported
Eduardo Saverin's Ownership Dropped from 33 Percent to Two Percent
“That Eduardo Saverin goes from owning a third of this Florida-based LLC to something like two percent of this C-Corp that is a Delaware C-Corp based in California that goes on to become, or is, Facebook Inc.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Meta CFO Projected $10 Billion Impact From Apple's ATT in 2022
“The CFO kind of casually says in a response to someone, oh, we think that the, Impact from ATT to our ad business will end up costing us on the order of ten billion dollars for twenty-twenty-two.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: In September 2005, Facebook held one-third of US college students at 70% DAU
“By September of o' five, they were at five million users. That was 10 X their user base just a year ago in September of o' four, and almost a third of all U.S. College students Were included in that five million. So by September of oh five, they had a third of…”
Assertion Partly supported
Gilbert: Facebook hit 8.3M users and $1M monthly revenue by October 2005
“At this period of time, October of oh five, They were up to 8.3 million users. They were the 10th most visited site on the Internet. But the important part is they were doing a million dollars a month in revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Benchmark Passed on Facebook Due to a Conflict With Friendster
“Which is what tied their hands and why they could not pursue an investment in Facebook.”
Assertion Supported
Facebook Does Not Sell User Data, It Sells Access to Targeting
“In part, you know, you can see why Facebook massively prefers the ad based business model of, we never even expose any information to you, advertiser. You target, and then we just deliver the ads. You never get to know anything about who the users are on our p…”
Assertion Contradicted
Microsoft's $240M Facebook Stake Became Worth $8 Billion Post-IPO
“That two hundred and forty million dollar investment, by the time they start selling it down years after Facebook is public, ends up being worth eight billion dollars.”
Assertion Contradicted
Rosenthal: Facebook was potentially the first startup with an open office plan
“I think Facebook was potentially maybe the first company, first startup, to have an open office plan.”
Assertion Supported
Facebook's Series A included $3M in secondary for founders
“Three million went to Mark, Dustin, and Sean as a secondary in this deal.”
Assertion Supported
Facebook Had 425M Mobile Users but Zero Meaningful Mobile Revenue Pre-IPO
“We had more than four hundred and twenty five million monthly active users who used Facebook mobile products in December 2011. We anticipate that the rate of growth in mobile users will continue to exceed the growth rate of our overall MAUs for the foreseeable…”
Assertion Supported
The Failure of Facebook Beacon Directly Led to the Growth Team
“Chamath Palihapitiya... This was Chamath's big thing before Growth. And actually, the epic failure here of Beacon leads directly to growth, as we shall see in a sec.”
Assertion Supported
Meta's US and Canada Revenue Per User Grew from $11 to $227
“The second insane thing, at IPO, the US and Canada market had an average revenue per user of 11 dollars. That number is now 227 dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Facebook Surpassed Google in Daily Page Views in November 2005
“By November of 2005, they were getting two hundred and thirty million page views daily, which means that they had passed Google in page views.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Microsoft invested $240M in Facebook at a $15B valuation
“And the big kicker, Microsoft is going to invest two hundred and forty million dollars in Facebook at a 15 billion dollar valuation.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Facebook July 2018 Drop Wiped $119B, Setting a Historic Record
“The company announces in their July, 20 18 earnings call that they're gonna be more focused on user privacy, and that revenue may slow as they make this intense focus. They dropped 19% in one day. They wiped out a hundred and nineteen billion dollars in market…”
Assertion Supported
Seventy Percent of Early Facebook Signups Became Daily Active Users
“70% of people who ever signed up were active that day. There are not user engagement retention metrics better than that in the world.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Early Facebook prioritized raw intelligence over industry experience in hiring
“The other thing that was basically true is they were not really interested in recruiting industry veterans, especially on the technical side. And Mark says this in early talks, that he was just prioritizing raw intelligence over experience.”
Assertion Supported
Meta's Reality Labs Segment Has Accumulated $60 Billion in Operating Losses
“So based on their spend already, since they started reporting Reality Labs as a separate segment in 2019, they've spent right around sixty billion dollars. That is in operating losses for the segment.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Facebook Settled with FTC for $5B with 20-Year Oversight
“The whole settlement here was not specifically about Cambridge Analytica. There were a bunch of other things that are privacy related, but the number is five billion dollars. And David, there is one thing that it comes with, and that is a 20 year window that t…”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Facebook testing showed the Like button increased comment volume
“And so, ultimately, they started running some tests with, like, small user groups and specific geographies, and they found that it actually often boosted engagement of comments.”
Assertion Supported
Accel led Facebook's 2005 Series A with $12.7M at $98M post-money
“Excel comes in, leads a series A. 12.7 million dollars at a ninety eight million dollar post-money valuation.”
Assertion Supported
Zuckerberg: Open Compute saved Meta billions by standardizing supply chains
“So now you have, like, all these other, you know, cloud service platforms that, you know, basically use, Open compute, and because of that, the supply chain is standard around, standardized around our designs, which means that it's, like, way more supply, way …”
Assertion Supported
Sequoia invested in Instagram 48 hours before the Facebook acquisition
“It's also funny that Sequoia claims Instagram was one of their investments where it sold 48 hours after they invested.”
Assertion Contradicted
Benchmark returned Fund VI entirely from Facebook's acquisition of Instagram
“I mean, they returned the fund on the investment, but, like, with the sale to Facebook.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Facebook bid on IPL digital rights in 2017 and lost
“And in 2017, Facebook bid on the digital rights and lost.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Facebook invested $5.7B for 10% of Reliance Jio
“Facebook invested 5.7 billion dollars for a 10% stake in this new subsidiary of Reliance.”
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Mobile in-feed ads proved far more valuable than desktop sidebar ads
“Because the ads are front and center, the value per ad is actually higher. So they ended up creating a much, much more valuable ad unit than they ever had on desktop purely because of this incredible attention on them when you're scrolling in feed on mobile.”
Assertion Contradicted
Rosenthal: Facebook was the sixth most-trafficked website globally in May 2007
“It is the sixth highest trafficked site in the world, and they're announcing to all the developers in attendance, Facebook API, Facebook Graph is now open to you.”
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Facebook Shipped Zuckerberg's Entire 2005 Roadmap Within Two Years
“And the wild thing is, they do accomplish all of this in the next two years.”
Assertion Partly supported
Meta Devoted Zero Minutes to Core Social Apps at Connect 2024 Keynote
“Meta held a multi-hour keynote at Connect in September, 24. And of those multiple hours, zero minutes were dedicated to their core products of social media apps, their hundred billion dollar business of selling advertisements on these social media products.”