The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

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why aren't all 43 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
YouTube's Annual Revenue Will Likely Surpass All of Disney in 2025
“So YouTube is already bigger than Disney's media business, and this year will likely become bigger than Disney's entire business.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 26, 2025 ▶ 1:25:18 Google Part II: Alphabet (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Steve Jobs demanded 100% of Pixar film profits in renegotiation with Disney
“He proposes a deal to Eisner, and this is where the relationship becomes irreparable. Pixar should actually be getting a hundred percent of the profits, not 50%, and they're now prepared to fund the budget themselves, too. Disney would just get a 10% distribut…”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:31:35 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Top weekly Disney+ movies are consistently Pixar and Disney Animation
“We've heard that the vast majority of the top 15 movies viewed every week on Disney Plus are either Pixar or Disney Animation. Not live action, not Star Wars, not The Avengers. The stuff that kids watch over and over. And those Disney animation movies are all …”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:45:53 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Disney secretly formed Circle 7 Animation to make Pixar sequels without Pixar
“Disney actually does start a new studio inside the company called Circle Seven Animation. That will be tasked with developing, right away, Toy Story III, Monsters, Inc. II, and Finding Nemo II.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:33:27 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Contradicted
Disney merchandise royalties surpassed film rental revenue by 1934
“It wasn't even by the late 19 thirties. It was 1934.”
David Rosenthal Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 1:07:08 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
The NFL traded NFL Network to ESPN for a 10% equity stake
“So August, 20, 25, the NFL reached a deal with Disney and ESPN to essentially sell the NFL network, the NFL's cable network and the NFL's official fantasy app to ESPN for a 10% equity stake in all of ESPN in return for this swap.”
David Rosenthal Jan 27, 2026 ▶ 3:35:54 The NFL: How small-town teams became America's most valuable sports empire (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Gilbert: Disney's stock price in 2026 is flat compared to 2015
“Disney's stock price today is what it was then. Yep. It's gone up and down, but it is flat to 11 years ago.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 3:00:51 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Disney incurred approximately $13 billion in cumulative operating losses building streaming
“Cumulatively, there were thirteen billion dollars or so of losses that Disney incurred in building it out in that segment.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 3:53:46 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: ESPN generates three billion dollars annually in operating income
“Yeah, it's a declining asset that does three billion dollars a year now in operating income.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 3:44:15 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Original Pixar films have set no box office records in a decade
“If you look at the new Pixar films developed in the last 10 years, nine, 10 years, none of them have set new records. The only record setters and real smash hits are these sequels.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 4:02:13 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Bass family was forced to liquidate $2B in Disney shares
“In the days after September 11th, they face a margin call on their other investments. They have to become forced sellers of two billion dollars worth of Disney shares, which puts even further downward pressure on the Disney stock, which has already just fallen…”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 1:25:30 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Contradicted
Gilbert: Every Disney box-office hit after 2016 harvested existing IP
“Everything I can think of that did big dollars after 2016 at the box office, and I picked 2016 because that's when Moana and Zootopia came out. Everything after that that was big box office for the company is harvesting existing IP.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 4:10:37 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Toy Story was the first non-Disney animated blockbuster
“It made twenty-nine million in its opening weekend, went on to become the number one film in the U.S., and it was the first ever animated film That was a blockbuster that was not created by Disney.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:20:08 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Disney committed $60B over a decade to parks and cruises
“So in 2023, they announced That they're investing sixty billion dollars of capital expenditures over the next decade into parks and cruises.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 3:55:14 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Disney grew market cap from $50B to $200B from 2005-2015
“Disney's market cap is up four X to two hundred billion dollars up from the fifty billion dollars when Bob took over. Overall revenue grows from thirty two billion to fifty two billion. Operating income goes from 4.7 to 14.7 billion.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:56:30 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Disney Merged Fox India Assets with Reliance at Huge Markdown
“Those assets end up not performing for Disney nearly as well as they thought they would. They end up merging them with Reliance in twenty-twenty-four in a deal that values them at only a fraction of what they value them in the Fox acquisition.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 3:18:04 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
By 2015, Disney generated over $50B annually in gross retail merchandise sales
“By 2015, Disney is doing over fifty billion dollars a year in gross sales at retail of merchandise up almost two X over the past five years.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:55:05 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Netflix, YouTube, and Disney Generate Hollywood's Major Profits
“If you just do the very simple exercise of looking who generates profits in the movie TV Hollywood landscape right now, it is Netflix, YouTube, and Disney generating the large profit streams.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 3:03:43 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Contradicted
Rosenthal: Disney and Pixar sold 65 million copies of Finding Nemo DVD
“Disney and Pixar would sell 65 million copies of the Finding Nemo DVD, all told, you know, across all, all timeframe.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:30:06 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Mickey Mouse watch sold 2.5 million units and saved Ingersoll Watch Company
“In 1933, right after he takes over, he does a deal with the Ingersoll watch company to manufacture the famous Mickey Mouse watch. That watch would sell two and a half million units over the next two years. The Ingersoll watch company was about to go bankrupt d…”
David Rosenthal Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 1:08:38 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Historical film box office split was 65% theater, 22% studio
“65% actually gets retained at the exhibitor, or the theater. 13% goes to the distributor, and 22% goes to the studio.”
Ben Gilbert Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 1:47:01 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Kay Kamen grew Disney merchandise to $70 million in gross annual sales
“Within six months, Kay takes Disney merchandising from this hodgepodge of random licenses of guys that Walt met on the street... To a real professional operation doing six million dollars of gross merchandise sales within six months. That then grows over the n…”
David Rosenthal Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 1:04:35 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
The Mickey Mouse Club surpassed Boy and Girl Scouts combined
“Pretty quickly, there are eight hundred Mickey Mouse clubs across the country with more than one million total members. That is more members than the Boy and Girl Scouts of America combined at this point in time.”
David Rosenthal Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 58:38 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: ESPN lost 3 million subscribers in 2015, falling to 92M
“It would come out later in Disney's annual report that ESPN lost three million subscribers that year. Which still meant it had ninety-two million in total.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:59:19 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Disney net income grew fivefold to $12.4B under Iger
“Revenue tripled from thirty one billion in 2005 to 94,000,000,020 years later, and net income went from 2.5 billion to 12.4 billion. So interestingly, net income outpaced revenue. They became five times more profitable while generating three times more revenue…”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 3:50:18 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Disney stock fell nearly 25% following 9/11 attacks
“Disney stock falls nearly 25% in the days after the September 11th attacks.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 1:24:43 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Gilbert: Beauty and the Beast featured Disney's first 3D animation
“The background of that Was actually three D rendered using Pixar software. And then they composited using caps, a two D hand drawn bell and the beast dancing. And that is the first time they used any three D animation in any Disney films.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 37:09 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Disney+ hit 10 million signups in 24 hours
“Disney gets ten million signups within the first 24 hours. Twenty-six million in the first quarter.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 3:20:07 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Disney+ Reached 100M Subscribers Within 16 Months
“When they announced Disney Plus originally, Disney said that their goal was to get 60 to ninety million subscribers within five years. All of a sudden, COVID happens. Everybody's sitting at home. Disney gets a hundred million subscribers within 16 months.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 3:37:12 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: MCU became highest-grossing film franchise at nearly $32B box office
“By twenty-twenty-five, the Marvel Cinematic Universe Has become the most successful film franchise in history. Generating nearly thirty-two billion dollars at the box office. That's more than Star Wars. That's more than James Bond.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:51:25 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
By 1994, Disney's market cap topped all other traditional media companies
“So by 1994, Disney's market cap hits twenty two billion dollars, up 10 X from when the Eisner crew took over, and it becomes the highest valued Of all the traditional media companies, more valuable than Time Warner, more valuable than Viacom, more valuable tha…”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 51:48 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Disney Parks generated $10B in operating profit last year
“Last year, Disney Parks and Experiences contributed ten billion dollars in operating profit to Disney.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 50:02 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Rosenthal: Disney sold 3M Frozen dresses in the movie's first year
“After Frozen comes out, Disney sells three million Elsa and Anna dresses in the first year after the movie's released.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:54:57 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Disney lost billions over half a decade transitioning to streaming
“They're in the midst of a transition to streaming with Disney Plus and Hulu. And ESPN making giant technology and marketing investments to support that transition that lost billions for half a decade.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:29 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Gilbert: Pixar's first customer check came from Disney for CAPS
“The first check to Pixar Inc. Is from Disney to work with them and create the CAPS system for improving their two D animation.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 2:03:03 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
AOL's Steve Case pitched Michael Eisner on a merger before Time Warner
“Steve Case approached him before Time Warner about an AOL Disney combination.”
David Rosenthal Aug 10, 2026 ▶ 1:18:15 Disney: The Renaissance and the Empire · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Disney recouped just $325,000 on Fantasia's $2.3 million budget
“The budget for Fantasia was 50% bigger than Snow White, and in the first run at the box office, they tried to use Fantasound, this new sound technology they had invented, and distributors didn't pick it up to do like a real first run, and so out of the 2.3 mil…”
Ben Gilbert Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 2:13:49 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Disney created four sponsored pavilions for the 1964 World's Fair
“The four exhibitions that they create for the 1964 World's Fair, many of which should probably sound familiar to you, It's a Small World, sponsored by Pepsi and UNICEF... Two, the Carousel of Progress, sponsored by General Electric. Three, The Magic Skyway, sp…”
David Rosenthal Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 3:45:16 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
1944 Snow White re-release brought Disney $3 million on minimal costs
“So in 1944, they re-release Snow White in theaters, and it brings in three million dollars in revenue to Disney on just a, like a few 100,000 in Cost.”
David Rosenthal Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 2:21:08 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Snow White used two million sketches and 250,000 finished drawings
“Two million sketches and 250,000 finished drawings and cells go into Snow White.”
David Rosenthal Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 1:40:33 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Star Wars: Rise of the Resistance reportedly cost up to $450 million
“The Rise of the Resistance Star Wars ride that they built in 2019, which is excellent if you've never been on it, was rumored to cost anywhere from two hundred million to four hundred and fifty million for just one ride.”
Ben Gilbert Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 3:16:42 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Supported
Snow White required $1.5 million and three years of work
“It takes one and a half million dollars of investment over three years of studio work to create Snow White.”
David Rosenthal Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 1:39:31 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
Assertion Partly supported
Mary Blair was the first female Disney Imagineer
“She's the one that basically did all the concept art for Alice in Wonderland, which is why it looks the way that it does. She's kind of responsible for that aesthetic. And she was one of the original team members of Imagineers that came over from WED, and I be…”
Ben Gilbert Jun 23, 2026 ▶ 3:45:36 The Walt Disney Company: The most successful enterprise for monetizing human nostalgia (Audio) · Acquired
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