The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

5held up → 2didn’t hold up → 0partly held up →
71%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Ben Gilbert (27)David Rosenthal (14)Mark Zuckerberg (2)Peter Fenton (1)Jim Weber (1)Jason Calacanis (1)Dara Khosrowshahi (1)Daniel Ek (1)Christina Cacioppo (1)Brendan Eich (1)Brad Gerstner (1)Ben Thompson (1)
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today 20252026 MarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSep 2 assessed early →

The record (7) every resolved claim →

Prediction Held up
Gilbert: Amazon will inevitably surpass Walmart in total global revenue
“If you look at the gap that Amazon closed in total revenue since the time they were founded to Walmart, they're going to catch them. No doubt about it.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:58:00 Walmart · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Neoclouds Will Offer Google TPUs in the Coming Months
“I think within a year it might happen. There are rumors already that some NeoClouds in the coming months are gonna have TPUs.”
Ben Gilbert Oct 6, 2025 ▶ 3:31:22 Google Part III: The AI Company. Google is amazingly well-positioned... will they win in AI? (Audio) · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Costco operates at an 11% gross margin and will never expand it
“Even though Costco is only an 11% gross margin business, and only ever will be an 11% gross margin business, it's still a pretty amazing business to own.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 21, 2023 ▶ 1:49:11 Costco (Audio) · Acquired
Prediction Didn’t hold up
YouTube's Annual Revenue Will Likely Surpass All of Disney in 2025
“So YouTube is already bigger than Disney's media business, and this year will likely become bigger than Disney's entire business.”
Ben Gilbert Aug 26, 2025 ▶ 1:25:18 Google Part II: Alphabet (Audio) · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Gilbert: TSMC will ramp its 2nm process in the second half of 2025
“I think they're actually doing the small production runs, getting ready to ramp in the second half of this year on the two nanometer process.”
Ben Gilbert Jan 27, 2025 ▶ 2:32:30 TSMC founder Morris Chang · Acquired
Prediction Held up
Gilbert: Walmart should win same-day grocery delivery via Supercenters
“In my bull case, there's, they kind of should win same-day grocery delivery since they have these super centers everywhere.”
Ben Gilbert Jul 19, 2022 ▶ 2:32:36 Walmart · Acquired
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ben Gilbert predicted in 2022 that Peloton would be acquired soon
“I think two years from now, I think the most likely thing is that it's acquired by someone”
Ben Gilbert Feb 10, 2022 ▶ 2:17:37 Peloton - the entire history and strategy behind America's trendiest workout · Acquired
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