why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Beshara: Pre-commerce will become the dominant retail model within seven years
“This pre-commerce, this notion of buying something before it exists is, I mean, it's radically different right now, but you fast forward five years, six years, seven years, and it will just be the best way to sell something.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Beshara: Tilt is the fastest growing app on US college campuses
“We're the fastest growing app on college campuses in the US.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Beshara: Tesla used customer pre-orders to secure $2 billion in debt
“Yes. You could sell today directly to your customers, get the demand before you put an ounce of production to work and use that to Tesla since use that, I believe for debt financing of two billion dollars. So be able to use that to verify the demand and securi…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Beshara: Crowdfunding campaigns reach an unstoppable tipping point at 34% funded
“If you can get to about 34,000, it kind of takes on a life of its own. When you get to about five people and about 33, 34%, that community is committed. They obviously pulled out their wallets. They want this thing to exist. And now they become advocacy to get…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Beshara: Merchant savings from lower payment fees will reach consumers
“Well, if it goes to the merchant, then it will go to the consumer. And it might not be a complete hundred percent pass through, but I'd say that the transfer of wealth will make it its way to the consumer. It just always does.”
Assertion Partly supported
Beshara: Tesla generated $14 billion in Model 3 pre-orders in days
“In about three or four days, they sold 200,000 cars. I mean, this is a car manufacturer. I think they've sold essentially about fourteen billion dollars worth of their new model. And they're expecting, you know, 30% to drop off, but still 70% of that would be …”
Assertion Supported
Beshara: A six-person drone startup reached $35 million in pre-orders
“There's a drone company. They were a six person company. They launch, and within about 30 days, they reached ten million in orders, and then they went on to reach about thirty five million dollars of orders, so you don't have to be a large brand.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Beshara: True social commerce requires participatory collective purchasing, not just social graphs
“I think it will be much more nuanced, but much more powerful than just, oh, add your social graph to your credit card transaction. It's much more participatory of collectively, socially.”
Assertion Supported
Beshara: Only $5B of $1.2T US peer-to-peer payments happen digitally
“The closest thing that I can get to is, I know in, and in some estimations, peer-to-peer payments in the US is 1.2 trillion dollars a year. The amount that happens electronically, digitally, is only about five billion.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Beshara: Xiaomi announces phones up to 12 months early for pre-orders
“And in each model, they will basically the equivalent of tweeting it out This is what we're getting. This is the new model. This is everything that's going to be in there nine to 12 months and order it now to get in line, and then you're batched based on when …”
Assertion Contradicted
Beshara: Unreleased game Star Citizen presold to 300,000 customers via crowdfunding
“There's a self-hosted crowdfunding, a game out there called Star Citizen that has had 300,000 people buy into this game. It hasn't been released yet, as far as I know. But there is a subreddit with about 30,000 people just talking about the game every day.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Tilt's largest user demographic is 18 to 24 year olds
“Our biggest demographic is 18 to 24 year olds”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Two out of 12 Tilt fantasy football users start separate campaigns
“Our platform grows pretty virally, you use it for a fantasy football league, and out of those 12 people two will split off, start their own campaign, and they'll do it for a draft party, a tailgate, a late night party, a group trip, or something like that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ESPN's Tilt integration achieved record feature adoption for the sports network
“I think the CTO was on y'all's side was telling us that it's one of the highest maybe highest uptick in a brand new feature that they've seen.”