The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Allison: Maintaining current US-China policies will likely result in war
“Business as usual in the relationship between the US and China will likely produce history as usual.”
Allison: 12 of 16 historical power transitions have resulted in war
“I find 16 cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power. In 12 of the cases, the outcome was war. In four of the cases, the outcome was not war.”
Allison: Measured by PPP, China is the world's largest economy
“International economies, and I believe the best yardstick is purchasing power parity, which is also the yardstick that CIA and IMF think is the best yardstick. By that yardstick, China is currently the largest economy in the world.”
Allison: China uses trade leverage like banana imports to coerce foreign governments
“The Chinese Not only have economic power, but they exercise economic power. So when the Philippines behaves in a way they don't like, they say, I think your bananas that you're importing to China may be suspect. So they just leave them on the dock till they ro…”
Allison: U.S. and China are virtually in a cyber Cold War
“So basically, I would say, interestingly, we now virtually have a Cold War in cyber between the U.S. And China.”
Allison: India will not displace the U.S. as Asia's dominant power
“No one imagines India is going to displace the U.S. As the predominant power in Asia.”
Allison: Chinese development banks hold four times the capital of World Bank
“So now, for development loans, the Chinese development banks, if you take the group together, including AAAB, have four times the capital of the World Bank.”
Allison: Xi Jinping's platform is colloquially 'Make China Great Again'
“Four years before that, five years before that, Xi Jinping became president of China. And what does his banner say? If colloquially, make China great again.”
Allison: US threatened war with Canada to acquire Alaskan territory
“And so we basically threatened war with Canada unless they gave us this territory, and we took it.”
Allison: North Korea conflict is today's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint
“One of the most dangerous development in the, on the horizon today, what's happening on the North Korean peninsula, and why is it so dangerous? Because it's an element in this Thucydidean dynamic.”
Allison: Chinese conception of international order is based on hierarchical dominance
“Chinese, ah, conception of order is extremely different than American conceptions of order. In the Chinese conception of order, you have basically a hierarchical dominance. In which somebody's at the top of the pyramid, and everybody else is, is located in rel…”
Allison: Mainstream historians reject applied history like physicists look down on engineers
“So mainstream historians don't really like it, because it seems a little too applied, in the same way that theorists don't like applied, and physicists look down on engineers.”
Allison: China is the primary trading partner and investor across Asia
“If you go around the ASEAN countries, or you go around Northeast Asia, the principal buyer, the principal seller, the principal investor is China.”
Allison: Xi maintains power by building competent government cadres
“He's trying to purify, as he puts it, to rectify the party, to make it virtuous. Again, how can you do this? We build some cadre, Who will be so competent in performing the functions of government that citizens will say, well, they're doing a good job, and, yo…”