why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Video games will eventually become as popular as traditional sports
“Video games is the only competitive medium that is going to give me that experience, and that purpose, and that sense of belonging, and that camaraderie that you get from sport. And so of course it's going to be as popular as sport, if not more popular as spor…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Augmented reality will have more near-term impact than virtual reality
“AR is gonna have more near-term impact than VR.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Steve Jobs threatened to cancel Apple's contract unless Kotick dropped out
“I will rip, and I can't say the word, I will rip this effing contract up right now if you don't quit college. So I quit the next day.”
Disclosure
Building a WoW competitor internally would have cost $1B and seven years
“And we looked at it and said, if we even could figure out how to do it would take us Five, six, seven years, and a billion dollars, and the likelihood is we wouldn't do a good job of it”
Assertion Contradicted
Activision offered up to $7B to buy Blizzard standalone from Vivendi
“And I asked them to sell us Blizzard, and we didn't have any interest in the rest of their games business, but we wanted Blizzard. And they said no repeatedly, and we offered them four billion, and then five billion, and then six billion, and then seven billio…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fortnite was the first game where spectating drove viewers to play
“Fortnite, I think, was the first game where people would spectate, and it would actually be a catalyst for them to play.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Esports will never join the Olympics due to commercial ownership conflicts
“I actually don't think, like, the Olympics has never been about a commercial enterprise, and so if you think of the analog, right, there's not, like, if you had to pick a game, You're now endorsing someone's commercial enterprise.”
Disclosure
Kotick bought a 25% stake in Activision for $440,000 in 1990
“So I bought a 25% stake in Activision for 440,000 dollars, and I became the largest shareholder.”
Assertion Partly supported
Activision traded a 51% stake for Blizzard and $2B in cash
“We'll stay a public company, you sell us Blizzard, or give us Blizzard and two billion of cash, and we'll give you 51% of the company.”
Insight
Sports succeed primarily due to tribalism and local affiliation
“The reason why sports are so successful is tribalism and that having a local affiliation was so crucial to the success of sport.”
Assertion Partly supported
Activision Blizzard players average one hour of daily gameplay
“Video game, our average duration of gameplay, that includes games like Candy Crush, is an hour per person per day. Games like Call of Duty or World of Warcraft are hours a day.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kotick built an Apple II GUI suite a year before Mac launched
“So we designed this mouse and a word processor and a spreadsheet and a database All for the Apple II with a graphical user interface about a year before the Macintosh was released.”
Assertion Partly supported
Activision Blizzard serves 400 million customers across 196 countries
“Today, we sell in a 196 countries around the world. We have four hundred million customers and anyone in any socioeconomic strata can actually play games.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
StarCraft reached 5 million registered players in South Korea at its peak
“The height of its popularity in Korea, StarCraft had five million registered players.”