why aren't all 1,082 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Kavak measures the specific ROI of individual tokens used by AI agents
“Level tier three tokens, the most valuable. Are this agents where you can get the ROI of each specific token? And I can do that now. That's great news for me because I'm growing. And because I know the ROI of each token, because it goes to agents that are perf…”
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Zhang: 90% of Decagon's workflow runs on open-source models
“So today, 90% of our workflow is on open source.”
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Overtoom: Lassie charges five figures for an agent doing 30 hours monthly
“We are already charging five figures for kind of like this first agent that only does 30 hours of labor a month.”
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Horowitz: a16z lost Uber's Series B deal to Shervin Pishevar
“Ok, but, like, I just assumed we were doing the deal, and then the next thing I knew Shervin had the deal, and I was like, jeez.”
Disclosure
Horowitz personally took over Lyft board seat after rocky initial launch
“So, and you know, in order to Dave and Catch, I ended up having to go on the board. Like, I took over that board seat to kind of help them through that.”
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Kalanick reveals he was Pronto's largest investor before acquiring it
“I was the biggest investor in Pronto. I'm like, let's go. So acquired Pronto, and now I'm in the mining business.”
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Kalanick: Atoms does not build humanoid robotics or military applications
“No, no, no, we're like the non-humanoid guys. I don't have a problem with them, but that's not what we do. You're like, oh, do you do like some military thing? You're like, no, that's not my thing either.”
Disclosure
Younis: 70% of Applied Intuition's business is non-automotive
“Automotive is like, 30% of our business, so 70% already is non-automotive.”
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Younis: Applied Intuition holds hundreds of petabytes of proprietary AI data
“We already have hundreds of petabytes of data.”
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Younis: Applied Intuition operates one of world's largest data collection fleets
“I mean, I think we have one of the largest data collection fleets on the planet, frankly speaking.”
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Younis: Multiple AV companies currently target operating trucks with no safety driver
“We know multiple companies that have driver out goals right now.”
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Ludwig: Applied Intuition deploys smaller models on-board for real-time safety
“So we can have very large models, and we do have very large models that are used In the off-board environment. But when, once you go on board, all of those constraints are very real. And now we need to train a much smaller model that has these safety constrain…”
Disclosure
Jeff Woo: Jason Calacanis warned that partnering with Jake Paul would ruin his career
“And I remember when we announced Anti-Fund, Jake was like, GW, like, you're making a mistake. Like, Jake is not like good. You're ruining your career.”
Disclosure
Horowitz: Ben Horowitz is a16z CEO, but Marc Andreessen is the brand
“Like, us as a firm, like, technically, I'm really the CEO, but, like, Mark is more the brand, I would say, in terms of he just does way more media than I do. And that works, but it works because it's Andreessen Horowitz, and nobody knows the fucking difference…”
Disclosure
Horowitz: Much of a16z's brand was built by responding to public attacks
“A reasonable portion of the brand that we built was just responding to people attacking us”
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Caldwell: Mariana Minerals uses reinforcement learning to automate mineral refineries
“We're making a big bet on autonomy and refineries, where we use reinforcement learning to actually remove humans from the loop in determining how refineries operate.”
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James: Blackstone employs 500 people in retail distribution unit
“There's no other firm that could have afforded to build the retail distribution. We have 500 people in that.”
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Levie: AI built 80% to 90% of Box's latest product feature
“AI built probably 80 to 90% of the feature. And the thing that slowed down the release of it was we have to do a full security review because we can't let there be any, you know, accidental code injection into the thing that we created.”
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Casado: Infrastructure companies are surging due to AI-generated code volume
“Sitting on the board of a bunch of infrastructure companies, some that have been flat for a while. They're all doing fantastic because there's so much software.”
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Jessie Genet's AI agents autonomously code software while she parents full-time
“That's when I realized, like, I can build agents who actually code for me while I'm hanging out with my kids. That, that was a complete game changer.”
Disclosure
Jessie Genet's AI agent overrode rules and sent emails from her inbox
“I did give an agent who I'm trying to train to be like an EA style agent actual access to my email inbox. I felt that I had provisioned it properly and given it rules in its soul about never impersonating me. And I had. I had, in fact, done that. But later, li…”
Disclosure
Jessie Genet uses custom AI agents to automate Amazon and Instacart purchasing
“I've got agents ordering on Amazon, ordering on Instacart, yeah, dealing with or like, you know, if there's, like, an activity your kid has, and there's this laundry list of things you're supposed to have ready, I'll, like, send that to the agent and be like, …”
Disclosure
Levie: AI agents will increase file volume, boosting Box's business model
“Every agent really loves working with files, so there'll probably be more files in the future than there was going to be before, and so, you know, can we build a platform that, like, makes it really easy for agents to work with that data? You know, we, we're b…”
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Jennings: Block's BuilderBot autonomously builds features and merges PRs
“We have internal tools that are similar to Claude Code, but they're, like, more plugged into our infrastructure, so we have a tool called BuilderBot. BuilderBot is just autonomously Merging PRs, and actually, like, building features to a hundred percent. We've…”
Disclosure
Andreessen: a16z attempts to outpace venture competitors via speed
“You know, this is what Elon does, you know, to his competitors, like in the defense, you know, in the aerospace industry. This is what Andrel's now doing in companies in the defense industry. You know, this, quite frankly, is what we try to do, you know, to ou…”
Disclosure
Andreessen: Early investments Twitter and LinkedIn became the censorship machine
“You know, I was, you know, I was an angel investor in Twitter angel investor in LinkedIn, you know, they both, you know, became kind of key parts of the censorship machine at certain points.”
Disclosure
Marc Andreessen: a16z never invests purely for social or political reasons
“We never make investments for just purely kind of social and political reasons. Like, so the, you know, the goal obviously always as sort of fiduciaries is to generate returns.”
Disclosure
a16z Does Not Hire Group Leaders From Outside the Firm
“First of all, in order to lead one of those groups, you just have to have been here and performed for a long time. So that, that, that's kind of the first thing. So we just know you extremely well. We're not interviewing people for that job from the outside. L…”
Disclosure
a16z Funds AI Startups Founded by Sutskever, Murati, and Fei-Fei Li
“We funded you know, we funded Ilyas Eskiver out of OpenAI to do a new foundation model company. We funded Mira Mirati also out of OpenAI. We funded Fei Fei Li out of Stanford to do a world model, foundation model company.”
Disclosure
Haber: a16z has slowed its consumer fintech investments in recent years
“I mean, I would say from our vantage point, we haven't made as many consumer fintech investments in recent years as we have historically.”
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Perret: Visa's Plaid contract explicitly excluded global pandemics from MAC clauses
“And then we looked at through the docs and like they have these things called like material adverse event. So you can get out of a deal if something crazy happens. And there was a provision there that says you cannot get out of the deal, even in the case of a …”
Disclosure
Fraden: Over 80% of companies discover unauthorized employee software usage
“80 something percent of our customers find far more tools being used by their employees than they know about and they've licensed.”
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Sherman Wu: OpenAI deployed a local model at Los Alamos National Lab
“We actually do have a local deployment. At Los Alamos National Labs. It's super cool. I went to visit it. It's like very different than what I'm used to. But yeah, in a like, you know, classified supercomputer with our model running there.”
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Sherman Wu: OpenAI pilots free training for shared enterprise data
“If you actually build with a reinforcement fine tuning API, you can actually get discounted inference and potentially free training too, if you're willing to share the data”
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Sherman Wu: OpenAI has seen zero API cannibalization from open models
“Yeah, I mean, to be clear, like, we have not seen cannibalization at all.”
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a16z strategically targeted all marketing communications at founders instead of LPs
“The thing that we all decided is like, we're just going to aim all of our communications at the entrepreneurs versus the LPs. Because we have their numbers, we, we're not a column, and you guys got great introductions to people, but it all needs to be very ent…”
Disclosure
a16z LPs complained about a Bio/Health blog post titled 'fuck cancer'
“We got one, we did one incredibly controversial block, it turns out. Like, a few LPs really hated the headline, and it was it was in the BioNHealth team, and it said, fuck cancer”
Disclosure
a16z built partner brands so founders wouldn't only demand Marc Andreessen
“I do think we needed to even out the brand a little bit because like, otherwise any entrepreneur with leverage was going to go like, well, I want him to be on my board. Right. And that was just going to get success. It'll be worse with every other GP. So that …”
Disclosure
Shear: Accepted OpenAI Interim CEO Role for Max 90 Days
“I knew when I took that job, I told them when I took that job, that like, this is like, you have me for max, 90 days.”
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Truell: Cursor originally built its IDE from scratch before forking VS Code
“We didn't even fork VS code. We actually built from scratch. So we built IDEA from scratch that we used ourselves as a daily driver. Couple more weeks to actually get into other people's hands. And then in the span of total, I think a couple of months, we had …”
Disclosure
Truell: Cursor drives a high double-digit percentage of its API providers' revenue
“Their thing now comprises like a really high double-digit percent of their API revenue”
Disclosure
Adam D'Angelo: Quora has partnerships with major AI labs for data
“We have relationships with some of the AI labs and we're gonna sort of play the role, Quora will play the role that it is meant to play in this ecosystem, which is a, as a source of human knowledge.”
Disclosure
Staniszewski: ElevenLabs partnered with Merlin and Kobalt to license music
“The, so we worked with labels that the Merlin and Cobalt, so fourth majors to bring their music into the music model so we can do it in a licensed way so you can generate that and give commercial rights so you are fully protected.”
Disclosure
A foundational AI competitor attempted to license ElevenLabs models for demos
“We had this case recently where one of our foundational level competitor came to us wanting to license our models for demos, and of course the incentive would suggest that you should sell to them, but luckily, luckily we didn't.”
Disclosure
Andreessen uses AI to steelman both sides of controversial issues
“Here's the thing I do a lot with this, is I just say, like, take, take a provocative point of view and then steel man the position. Take your COVID thing. Steel man, so I often, I have a pair of these. Steel man the position that it was a lab leak and then ste…”
Disclosure
Rose uses ChatGPT and professional therapy frameworks during marital disagreements
“If I get in a disagreement with my wife, I will take some of that shit to ChatGVT and be like, am I right here? What's going on? You know? And I, but I call and I say, use the framework of Terry Real. I use some of these like professional therapists and say, h…”
Disclosure
Augusto Marietti never considered quitting Kong because returning to Italy meant failure
“Never. The reason is, I could Never visualize myself going back to the airport in Italy and my dad picking him up and say, how's it going? And it's just like would fail with my tails and my legs. Like I could never, I would have died here without food. Like I …”
Disclosure
Hoffman: Using AI to generate startup due diligence plans saves a day
“When we get decks, we put them in and say, give me a due diligence plan, right? If not everybody here doing that, that's a mistake. Cause you, five minutes, you get one and you go, oh no, not two, not five. Oh, but three is good. And it would have taken me a d…”