The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9,830 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 249 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Andreessen: Political violence in Western society is currently at an all-time low
“The fact that political violence is like an all-time low in Western society is something that people really don't talk about.”
Andreessen: Youth depression spikes are statistical artifacts driven by government benefits
“And so basically if you get paid or if you get like special dispensation in school for having, you know, psychological issues, all of a sudden you see a massive spike in those psychological issues. The countries that don't have that, the other Western countrie…”
Andreessen: A lot of AI doomerism is paid for by dark money
“We know that there's dark money in AI. Like a lot of the AI doomerism stuff is basically bought and paid for.”
Jessie Genet: AI will reverse declining global fertility rates
“AI will be a dawn of a reversal in that fertility rate decline and will be like a halcyon era for parenthood.”
Balaji Srinivasan: AI will make the global internet resemble China's
“I actually think AI makes the internet a lot more like the Chinese internet.”
Balaji Srinivasan: China will stop autonomous AI using cryptographic kill switches
“Way before it gets there, I'm pretty sure that kind of thing will be stopped from the Chinese because they will just have cryptographic keys that will just make all those things shut off, okay?”
Balaji Srinivasan: Centralized US AI firms won't reach trillions due to backlash
“So I don't think that in that form they're going to get to trillions. In fact, I think the counterattack on them is going to be so dramatic that it might be that you just have decentralized AI.”
Blania: Artificial intelligence systems will eventually acquire personhood status
“At some point AIs will have personhood too.”
Horowitz: Democracy will fail without proof-of-human identity infrastructure
“Proof of human is a piece of a very important puzzle where we have to upgrade the entire infrastructure or we're not going to be a democracy anymore. I mean, that, that'd just be my guess.”
Horowitz: Balaji Srinivasan temporarily quit a16z over NYT article crisis
“Inside the firm, it was such a big crisis that actually, I'm pretty sure Bology quit, because he thought we were dead, because the New York Times had just, like, ruined the whole firm with that article.”
Andreessen: Mainstream media will permanently follow and react to viral posts
“If you're a television producer or if you're a news editor or whatever, like you can't possibly move your organization fast enough to stay ahead of these cycles. And so what you end up doing is you end up chasing them. And that's, and basically the role of mai…”
Misra: LLMs are just silicon doing matrix multiplication, not conscious beings
“You can rule out they're conscious. I mean, come on. And I said, you know, Anthropic makes great products. Cloud code is fantastic. Co-work is fantastic, but they are grains of silicon doing matrix multiplication. They don't have consciousness. They don't have…”
Misra: Scale will not solve everything; AGI requires a different architecture
“One of the misconceptions that exists today is that scale will solve everything. Scale will not solve everything. You need a different kind of architecture, and this continual learning is a difficult problem.”
Michael: DOD AI adoption grew from 80k to 1.2M in 90 days
“In 90 days, I think we've had 1.2 million of the three million people at the department. Use some form of AI when that was, that number was 80,000 before I started.”
Karp: Palantir is fundamentally an anti-surveillance company
“Despite what everyone thinks Palantir is the anti-surveillance company, I know your person online thinks that's not true, but every technical expert does”
Alex Karp: AI market will consolidate to one or two providers
“There will be, like, it's my own rhetoric, but I happen to think it's true. It's going to be chips, ontology, and I suspect in the end, one and a half provider.”
Karp: America Will Fail If Wealth Concentrates in Unaligned Tech Elites
“It could go wrong, and it will go wrong if all wealth is going to a small number of people, and those people do not appear to be on side.”
George: OpenAI and Anthropic added half of public software's 2025 net revenue
“Public software companies added forty six billion dollars of revenue in 20, 25. If you just add up OpenAI and Anthropic on their, on a run rate basis, they added almost half of that.”
Mares: Ketogenic diets can resolve schizophrenia, epilepsy, and bipolar symptoms
“One of the best therapies for someone that is schizophrenic or epileptic Or even, in many cases, bipolar. If you put them on a ketogenic diet, these things will, in many cases, just resolve.”
Horowitz: Restricting AI math modeling will forfeit US AI lead to China
“If you ban the technology, which some people are calling for, ah, or ban or kind of infringe people's ability to do mathematics, which is something that a lot of people are calling for then I think we're definitely gonna lose the AI rise to China, which has, l…”
Horowitz: Copyright restrictions on training data will weaken US AI against China
“China absolutely doesn't respect copyrights, even, they don't respect just copying it let alone building a statistical model, and we're gonna have kind of a weaker AI if we can't train on all the data, can't train on the complete data.”
Marc Andreessen: Substack could reach 1,000x the legacy media industry's size
“I think Substack could be, like, a thousand times the size of the existing, like, content industry, whatever you want to call it, media news industry the, Collective, you know, kind of value.”
Horowitz: AI Will Eventually Solve Virtually Every Major Human Problem
“There's not a problem that we can think of that you can't, that you won't be able to solve with AI. So like almost every problem in the world and you know, from cancer to transpiration, transportation to massive fraud in the U S you just name a problem in the …”
Horowitz: a16z Has Higher IQ Concentration Than Any Operating Company
“We just have a higher concentration of talent here than that's probably possible in a company in terms of just Sheer IQ.”
Horowitz: Memphis police lowered recruitment standards enough to hire criminals
“Because of the shortage many police departments have lowered their standards. So the kind of criticism of the police was, okay, you have, and it really, like, if you looked into it, There were some, like, psychos who joined the police force. They couldn't get …”
Horowitz: Post-Rampart LAPD recruited gang members who killed Notorious B.I.G.
“What happened in the LAPD with the Rampart scandal right after the Rodney King incident They had the same kind of thing. Everybody got fired, et cetera. They had trouble recruiting. They started recruiting people out of gangs and those gang members ended up, y…”
Horowitz: Reallocating police funds to social work has failed
“So you have to have, I'm not against social work, but you can't do it at the expense of crime, you know, law enforcement, and we saw that. I mean, like, we ran the experiment, it didn't work.”
Horowitz: Las Vegas police shootings dropped 75% after tech deployment
“Police shootings of suspects in Vegas dropped like 75% when we first put the cameras and the drones in place.”
Horowitz: LAPD corruption and rogue officers protected Tupac Shakur's killers
“Well, in that case, the LAPD was corrupt, and the, well, there were literally criminals in the police force protecting the criminals who killed Tupac, and, you know, thankfully, we kind of reopened the cold case, and we caught the guy, but it's,”
Horowitz: Prosecutors and judges are funded to avoid convicting criminals
“There's a huge push to not criminal, to decriminalize crime, essentially, in this country. And, like, it's still going on, and it's, you know, there are still these, you know, prosecutors and judges that are funded basically for the purposes of not convicting …”
Horowitz: San Francisco's shoplifting policy enabled organized crime, not hungry residents
“In San Francisco, right, like, the whole political movement was, people are hungry, you can't arrest them for shoplifting and so forth, so as soon as we did that, what happened was massive gangs took everything out of the stores. They ended up, right, shutting…”
Fraden: Fortune 500 will employ more people in 30 years than today
“At a very high level, I just don't believe the Fortune 500 will employ fewer people in 30 years than they do today, because the ones that try and cut all the people will no longer be in the Fortune 500.”
Marc Andreessen predicts massive turnover for public figures who sound like AI
“My new version of this, my, the new test I think is happening is what we might call the GPT test, which is, okay, if what somebody says is indistinguishable from chat GPT output, like not going to make it. Right. And then the more advanced version of the test …”
Epoch AI: 20-30% chance AI causes sudden 5% unemployment spike
“The, like, interesting scenario to think about, you know, 20% chance, 30% chance something like this will happen in the next decade is like, you know, a five percent increase in unemployment over, over a very short period of time, like six months, due to AI.”
Tenev: Robinhood plans to take its investment vehicle, Robinhood Ventures, public
“We're working to solve this problem through tokenization in, in the EU and also through Robinhood Ventures in the US, which is a closed-down fund that we're gonna be taking public.”
Only Three Tech Employees Attended an Obama Border Official's Talk
“He went out and actually got a former director, ah, actually, he got, ah, a guy who had actually been in the Obama administration, as basically the head of border, the head of the border security in the Obama administration, to basically come in and give an ho…”
Boyle: Few Lessons From the Ukraine War Will Apply to Future Conflicts
“I actually think there's very few lessons from Ukraine that are going to be relevant in the future war, candidly.”
Shear: AI designed strictly to follow top-down rules will be dangerous
“If you make an AI that's good at following your chain of command and good at following your whatever rules you came up with for what morality is and what good behavior is, That's also gonna be very dangerous.”
Shear: Treating ChatGPT and Claude as beings yields lower predictive loss
“I get lower predictive loss when I treat them as a being. And the thing is, I get lower predictive loss when I treat ChatGPT or Claude as a being.”
Shear: Any true AGI will inherently be a sentient being
“And we are clearly, they're saying they're building an AGI, and AGI will be a being. You can't be an AGI and not be a being, because something that has the general ability to effectively use judgment, think for itself, discern between possibilities is obviousl…”
Emmett Shear: Superhuman AI controlled by steerability will cause human extinction
“If we build the superhuman intelligence tool thing that we try to control with steerability, everyone will die.”
Adam D'Angelo: Current AI paradigm is far from diminishing returns
“I think the current paradigm is pretty good. And I think we're nowhere near the sort of like diminishing returns of continuing to push on it. And I bet. Yeah, I guess I would just bet that you can keep doing different innovations within the paradigm to get the…”
Zuckerberg: AI will help cure all diseases significantly before 2100
“When we started the mission to see if we could help the scientific community cure and prevent diseases by the end of the century. I do think with the advances in AI, that should be possible to do significantly sooner.”
Sacks: US will lose AI race to China under pre-approval regulations
“And I think we will lose the AI race to countries like China if, You know, if this is the set of rules that we have.”
Sacks: AI doomerism narrative will be discredited within a few years
“I suspect that's where we'll be with AI dumerism in a few years, but in the meantime, it's a really good narrative to kind of take the place of the climate dumerism.”
Sacks: Top Biden AI officials immediately joined Anthropic after leaving government
“Literally the minute the Biden administration was over, all the top Biden AI employees went to go work at Anthropic, which tells you who they were working with during the Biden years.”
Andreessen: AI models will clear the bar of human intelligence and creativity
“Emotionally I want to like hold out hope that there is, you know, still something special. About human creativity, and I certainly believe that, and I very much want to believe that, but I don't know, when I use these things, I'm like, wow, they seem to be awf…”