The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2,855 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 166 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Alex Karp: AI market will consolidate to one or two providers
“There will be, like, it's my own rhetoric, but I happen to think it's true. It's going to be chips, ontology, and I suspect in the end, one and a half provider.”
Karp: America Will Fail If Wealth Concentrates in Unaligned Tech Elites
“It could go wrong, and it will go wrong if all wealth is going to a small number of people, and those people do not appear to be on side.”
Horowitz: Restricting AI math modeling will forfeit US AI lead to China
“If you ban the technology, which some people are calling for, ah, or ban or kind of infringe people's ability to do mathematics, which is something that a lot of people are calling for then I think we're definitely gonna lose the AI rise to China, which has, l…”
Horowitz: Copyright restrictions on training data will weaken US AI against China
“China absolutely doesn't respect copyrights, even, they don't respect just copying it let alone building a statistical model, and we're gonna have kind of a weaker AI if we can't train on all the data, can't train on the complete data.”
Marc Andreessen: Substack could reach 1,000x the legacy media industry's size
“I think Substack could be, like, a thousand times the size of the existing, like, content industry, whatever you want to call it, media news industry the, Collective, you know, kind of value.”
Horowitz: AI Will Eventually Solve Virtually Every Major Human Problem
“There's not a problem that we can think of that you can't, that you won't be able to solve with AI. So like almost every problem in the world and you know, from cancer to transpiration, transportation to massive fraud in the U S you just name a problem in the …”
Fraden: Fortune 500 will employ more people in 30 years than today
“At a very high level, I just don't believe the Fortune 500 will employ fewer people in 30 years than they do today, because the ones that try and cut all the people will no longer be in the Fortune 500.”
Marc Andreessen predicts massive turnover for public figures who sound like AI
“My new version of this, my, the new test I think is happening is what we might call the GPT test, which is, okay, if what somebody says is indistinguishable from chat GPT output, like not going to make it. Right. And then the more advanced version of the test …”
Epoch AI: 20-30% chance AI causes sudden 5% unemployment spike
“The, like, interesting scenario to think about, you know, 20% chance, 30% chance something like this will happen in the next decade is like, you know, a five percent increase in unemployment over, over a very short period of time, like six months, due to AI.”
Tenev: Robinhood plans to take its investment vehicle, Robinhood Ventures, public
“We're working to solve this problem through tokenization in, in the EU and also through Robinhood Ventures in the US, which is a closed-down fund that we're gonna be taking public.”
Boyle: Few Lessons From the Ukraine War Will Apply to Future Conflicts
“I actually think there's very few lessons from Ukraine that are going to be relevant in the future war, candidly.”
Shear: AI designed strictly to follow top-down rules will be dangerous
“If you make an AI that's good at following your chain of command and good at following your whatever rules you came up with for what morality is and what good behavior is, That's also gonna be very dangerous.”
Shear: Any true AGI will inherently be a sentient being
“And we are clearly, they're saying they're building an AGI, and AGI will be a being. You can't be an AGI and not be a being, because something that has the general ability to effectively use judgment, think for itself, discern between possibilities is obviousl…”
Emmett Shear: Superhuman AI controlled by steerability will cause human extinction
“If we build the superhuman intelligence tool thing that we try to control with steerability, everyone will die.”
Adam D'Angelo: Current AI paradigm is far from diminishing returns
“I think the current paradigm is pretty good. And I think we're nowhere near the sort of like diminishing returns of continuing to push on it. And I bet. Yeah, I guess I would just bet that you can keep doing different innovations within the paradigm to get the…”
Zuckerberg: AI will help cure all diseases significantly before 2100
“When we started the mission to see if we could help the scientific community cure and prevent diseases by the end of the century. I do think with the advances in AI, that should be possible to do significantly sooner.”
Sacks: US will lose AI race to China under pre-approval regulations
“And I think we will lose the AI race to countries like China if, You know, if this is the set of rules that we have.”
Sacks: AI doomerism narrative will be discredited within a few years
“I suspect that's where we'll be with AI dumerism in a few years, but in the meantime, it's a really good narrative to kind of take the place of the climate dumerism.”
Andreessen: AI models will clear the bar of human intelligence and creativity
“Emotionally I want to like hold out hope that there is, you know, still something special. About human creativity, and I certainly believe that, and I very much want to believe that, but I don't know, when I use these things, I'm like, wow, they seem to be awf…”
Rose: AI relationship mediators will be considered healthy within 10 years
“10 years from now, will that tech be good enough to where we'll consider that to be not like just like a healthy thing for our relationship? I think so.”
Acharya: Schools will use AI vision models for social-emotional learning
“The way we're going to get there is not by paying for two teachers in every classroom. It's probably some kind of a vision model. That's privacy first. They can observe the social interactions of children and let parents and teachers know what's going on.”
Rose: AI will end software engineering as non-subjective coding is solved
“I think engineering is over. I think we're going to be orchestrators of information, not engineers. I think those will be solved problems. Anything where there is a non subjective outcome, AI will tackle that and solve that problem.”
Andreessen: Ideologically driven movies released through 2028 will flop commercially
“The movies that are greenlit today, right, are not gonna come out, you know, until, like, whatever, 20, yeah, it's like, twenty-twenty-seven, twenty-twenty-eight soonest, and so we, so we're in this, like, liminal period, or this interstitial period, where for…”
Keith Rabois predicts multiple countries will make peace with Israel within months
“You're gonna see lots of countries You know, make peace explicitly with Israel, which is great. Whether they join the Abraham Accords directly or indirectly, it's all gonna happen in the next six months.”
Keith Rabois predicts 4% US GDP growth will render national debt irrelevant
“We're gonna have four percent or more growth all of next year. That will make the debt irrelevant. You can grow your way out of deficits.”
Keith Rabois predicts AI will enable 4% to 6% inflation-free GDP growth
“Well, I think you can run four to six percent durably without inflation, which is magic.”
Keith Rabois predicts people will stop using Microsoft Word within five years
“Do people draft documents in Word in three, four, five years? Probably not.”
Rampell: Traditional banks will never be able to build software
“Well, and that's the thing, it's like, you know, software, like I'm very confident that all of the banks Cannot build software, will not be able to build software, will not build software.”
Labenz: Tool-Equipped Next-Gen AI Models Will Resemble Superintelligence
“When we start to give the next generation of the model these power tools, and they start to solve previously unsolved engineering problems, I think you start to have something that looks kind of like super intelligence.”
Labenz: AI will outperform average developers on standard apps within five years
“But I would be very surprised if you can't get your nuts and bolts Web app, mobile app type things spit out for you for far less and far faster than, and probably honestly with significantly higher quality and less back and forth with an AI system than, you kn…”
Altman: Video AI models capable of deepfaking anyone will arrive soon
“So like, very soon, the world is going to have to contend with incredible video models that can deepfake anyone or kind of show anything you want, and that will mostly be great.”
Altman: AI models will make important scientific discoveries in two years
“So in two years, I think the models will be doing bigger chunks of science and making important discoveries.”
Altman: Current LLMs can advance enough to automate AI research breakthroughs
“I think far enough that we can make something that will figure out the next breakthrough with the current technology. Like I, it's a very self-referential answer, but if LLMs can get, if LLM based stuff can get far enough that it can do like better research th…”
Altman: AGI arrival will not transform the world as radically as expected
“AGI will come, it will go Wuxian Bai. The world will not change as much as the impossible amount that you would think it should.”
Wang: China will not implode; US-China competition is a long-term grind
“There is no implosion. When one side is ahead, the other side will overstep, and then the, then, and then they'll need to catch up. And so I want to say that there is no winner here. There is no loser here. It's not a race. Nobody gets to hit the win button. A…”
Bhattacharya: FDA will issue updated pregnancy guidelines for acetaminophen use
“There will be, yeah. So that's something that Dr. McCary, the FDA commissioner is working on. And there'll be also you know, changes in, in like how Medicare pays, Medicare, CMS, Medicare, and Medicaid pay for Leucovorin. So it's a cross-agency collaboration f…”
Patel: China Will Pause NVIDIA Bans During AI Chip Capacity Gap
“I think they'll be able to ramp. I think it'll take a little bit longer and there will be, like, a sort of a gap in between where China probably backtracks and says it's fine.”
Cass: Trump's tariffs will boost US manufacturing output within years
“I think if the long run is you know, anywhere upwards of a few years, I think it will. I think the question is how long does it take to actually change investment decisions? And then how long does it take investments to come online? But I would expect to see t…”
Srinivasan: Futurism versus primitivism will replace the left-right political axis
“I think it's going to become actually the future political axis between futurism and primitivism. That's going to be the new left, right after the whole thing finishes rotating.”
Andreessen: Without US manufacturing, Chinese robots will dominate the world
“If you don't do this, you're living in a world of Chinese robots everywhere.”
Dwarkesh Patel: Post-AGI annual economic growth will exceed 20%
“And so you're gonna have this explosive dynamic. And once we get like that loop closed, I think it would just be like, 20% growth plus.”
Dwarkesh Patel: Post-AGI, humans will not have high-paying jobs
“Once we get AGI humans will not have high paying jobs.”
Noah Smith: AI companionship will cause human population to continually dwindle
“The human race does not have a desire, a collective desire to perpetuate itself. We can, you know, yes, we're going to get lonely, but we'll have company through AI and through the internet. Social media, you know, until there's just a few of us and we dwindle…”
Balaji Srinivasan: Decentralized networks will replace the state as authority of truth
“So it gets a very fundamental thing where tech guys are sensing there's something here, but ultimately the network has to supplant the state as the form of truth.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Voting with your feet will be the only remaining democracy
“So the problem is that you have Democrats, Republicans, and Communists that have all created basically one-party states, where the only democracy then is going to be the right to exit. To vote with your feet.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Future democracy will replace two-party systems with a thousand-city model
“That's a future democracy, not a two-party system with the illusion of choice, but a thousand city system with the reality of choice. 97% for Elon, right? This is essentially a precursor to what's coming next, where you vote with your feet, your wallet, and yo…”
Balaji Srinivasan: AI applications in markets and politics will fail
“And what I think AI is particularly bad at, that people are trying to make, trying to use it for, that they're going to fail on, in my view, is when they try to use it for markets or politics.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Media companies unionizing against AI will be outcompeted
“There's a similar, much less publicized thing that's happening at many media corporations where they're unionizing to try to ward off AI competition. Like, they have union contracts that say the editors, owners cannot use AI, right? So they're making their org…”