The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 214 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Olivia Moore: Notification summary backlash spooked Apple into delaying AI Siri
“It seems like that spooked Apple a little bit, and they keep kind of retrenching on the timeline of releasing AI Siri.”
Olivia Moore: Consumer AI startups charge an average of $22 per month
“So we also ran some extra some additional data analysis that shows that On average, consumer AI startups are charging 22 dollars a month across the average user, which again is like more than double what they were able to charge pre-AI for subscription compani…”
Olivia Moore: AI startups convert consumer usage to enterprise contracts faster
“And we're seeing, I would say, companies convert consumer revenue to enterprise revenue. Way faster than they ever did before. Like, companies like Canva previously took five, six, seven plus years to really move from consumer prosumer to enterprise. And now w…”
Olivia Moore: Consumers happily pay $200 monthly for AI applications
“And now we have people very happily paying 200 dollars a month and even saying in some cases that they feel like they're being undercharged for that, or they would pay more.”
Olivia Moore: AI tools justify $200 monthly fees by replacing manual work
“Now with products like Deep Research, for example, that could replace 10 hours of generating a market report by yourself, and so that kind of thing is easily worth, I think for many people, 200 dollars a month, even on like one or two generations.”
Olivia Moore: Making high-quality AI movies takes as long as traditional filming
“Which is like, yes, anyone can generate art now easier than ever before, but it's still, Takes an enormous amount of time to make great AI art. Like, we hosted an event with a bunch of AI artists last summer, and many of these people, when they walked you thro…”
Moore: Around 95% of YC startups build using AI development tools
“95% of YC companies or something are now Kind of building using those tools.”
Moore: Google's Veo 2 video model likely releasing in 3-6 months
“I think we'll see even more of a shake-up here, because VO-II is the new Google model that is even next level beyond that, from what we've seen in testing, and that is probably finally gonna hopefully come out in the next, you know, three or six months.”
Moore: Lovable creator domain traffic far outweighs visits to deployed apps
“And, like, lovable.dev has more usage or more visits significantly than, you know, traffic to lovable.app, which gets back to what I was saying before.”
Moore: First wave of viral apps from vibe-coding platforms yet to come
“Like, we have not even seen the first wave of viral products built on top of lovable and bold. And so when that happens, I think that the awareness of these types of platforms is gonna go significantly up, too.”
Moore: People interact with modern AI voice as human or better
“It's in no way like a true conversational partner in a way that people are interacting with AI voice now like it is a human or in some ways even better than a human.”
Moore: AI voice agents outperform humans on awkward sales upsells
“Maybe they have to make an upsell, and it's awkward, but they are not getting an extra commission for doing that, so they're gonna skip it 80% of the time. An AI will just do it every time, and will kind of do it proudly, and if they get turned down, you know,…”
Moore: AI voice startups shift from per-minute pricing to platform fees
“The other thing about the price per minute model is it really just puts your value as a platform solely on the phone calls, which again are kind of commoditizing versus like the other software that you're building around the phone calls. So, I would say as a r…”
Moore: Tech incumbents won't build the first AI-native personal assistant
“Are they gonna build the first AI native personal assistant that works across all of your products and all of your information sources? Probably not, I would say. I think that any and all of the calls that the incumbents end up doing, which will be some volume…”
Olivia Moore: Best AI products are new interfaces, not incumbent updates
“And I think the answer in many cases is that the best and most interesting products are actually new interfaces that are just now enabled due to AI.”
Olivia Moore: One-shot AI generation tools are gimmicky and unfit for deep work
“In some ways, it's a little bit of a, and I say this lovingly, like, gimmicky product, because you might use it as like a fun thing to send to a friend or to post on Twitter or something, but you're not likely to do deep work in it.”
Moore: Google will not build format-transforming AI features anytime soon
“So again, that's like the type of product that Google is probably not gonna build, or at least is not gonna build for a while, and is a real advantage for more native AI companies.”
Olivia Moore: Single-feature AI tools have scaled to hundreds of millions in revenue
“We've seen, quote unquote, like single feature tools, like a background remover, image generator, scale to hundreds of millions of revenue, which is incredible.”
Only 5-6 GenAI apps overlap between top 50 web and mobile lists
“I think there was only five or six companies that made both lists.”
Multiple top mobile AI apps are copycat wrappers arbitraging OpenAI's models
“So there are quite a few apps on our mobile app list that are essentially copycat products and using OpenAI's own model, but are named slightly differently, and are just kind of playing this, like, maybe short to medium term arbitrage on App Store optimization…”
The average Character.ai user logs nearly 300 sessions per month
“Character AI has the average user close to 300 sessions per month, which again is like 10 sessions per day.”
Moore: Temu's six-month repeat order rate is 5x higher than rivals
“What's coming out in the data, at least from what we can see, is Temu's repeat order rate is like five times higher if you get to like month six and beyond.”
Moore: TikTok's native one-click in-app marketplace will be incredibly powerful
“And so when you think about TikTok, as they've been hinting at, Layering in kind of an in-app marketplace where you could do that in one click, where your payment information is saved, your shipping information is saved, you can order it directly from the vide…”
Olivia Moore: Opportunity to rapidly build and monetize mobile apps is unprecedented
“I think the opportunity maybe has never been greater to build and monetize a mobile app quickly, make a few million dollars and retire if that's what you want to do.”
Moore: Hitting #1 on US iOS App Store requires ~100k daily downloads
“My data polls show you need probably around or maybe a little bit above a 100,000 downloads in the US on iOS. On any given day to hit number one.”
Moore: Over half of 2022's #1 iOS apps stayed top under five days
“The largest number of apps that hit number one this year were number one for just a day, or maybe half a day, not that long at all. And more than half of the apps at number one were up there for less than five days throughout the whole year, not even five cons…”
Moore: $60/year subscription apps struggle to scale revenue
“Many of those are amazing companies, but it's hard to generate hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue on, on things like those.”
Moore: Tinder should proceed with testing a $500 per month subscription tier
“And if someone's willing to pay 500 dollars and feel like Tinder is delivering that value to them with Maybe a more sophisticated product. Like I think they should go for it.”
Moore: First-to-market advantage is not required to win app categories
“And I think like the fact that there were so many widget apps and so many AI art apps that made it to number one shows that it's not necessarily the first to market that kind of wins the space or gets all the value out of the space.”
Moore: Period tracking app hit number one after Roe v. Wade decision
“There's a next gen period tracking app for women, which claims kind of special encryptions that make it harder for, you know, subpoenaing the data or anything like that. And that reached number one just a few days after the Roe v Wade verdict, so after it was …”
Moore predicts Temu will finish in the top five apps of 2023
“So I'm going to make an early call that we'll see Temu at least in the top five, if not higher.”
Moore: A next-generation Yelp platform will emerge in two to three years
“This next-gen Yelp vision that I think we believe is going to play out over the next two to three years.”
Moore: US-developed breakout #1 apps dropped from 85% to 45% in 2022
“In 20, 21 of the new startups that kind of cracked the top number one for the first time, almost 85% of them were developed in the U.S. But in 2022, that had dropped to 45%.”
TikTok creators use Subway Surfers split-screens to retain short attention spans
“It turns out that especially Gen Z users but all ages have started kind of split screening TikTok videos because people have such short attention spans. So they'll put the real video on top, or they'll put, you know, the voiceover on top, and then they'll put …”
Moore: Half of Notion's New ARR Is Driven by AI Features
“Notion actually announced that now they think half of their new ARR is driven by AI-first features, which is very cool.”
Moore: Claude and ChatGPT App Stores Share Only 11% Overlap
“If you actually look at the app stores that are emerging on Cloud and ChatGPT, they both have 200 plus apps, but there's only 11% overlap.”
Moore: Gemini User Traction Correlates With Creative Model Releases
“So if you look at their kind of active users and paying users, it's nearly perfectly correlated to releases of like VO three, Nano Banana One, Nano Banana Pro, Nano Banana Two.”
Moore: Anthropic Monetizes Claude Exclusively Through Subscriptions
“So, like, I think Claude has been very clear that they're just gonna monetize via subscriptions, which is great for people and companies who can pay for subscriptions, but it won't be everyone.”
Moore: Context Lock-In Will Favor Horizontal AI Platforms Like ChatGPT
“I think there's going to be increasing lock-in, and I do think that probably actually benefits the broader, more horizontal tools like ChatGPT”
Moore: Google's NotebookLM Was a Breakthrough in Consumer AI Audio
“I think Notebook LM was actually the first look at this, and that was something truly new in, like, consumer AI audio.”
Moore: OpenAI's Sora Held #1 on US App Store for 20 Days
“They were number one on the App Store, the US App Store, for 20 consecutive days, which is very hard to do.”
Moore: OpenAI's Sora Reached 1 Million Users Faster Than ChatGPT
“And they actually hit a million users faster than ChatGPT itself.”
Moore: A Massive AI-Native Social Network Will Eventually Emerge
“There probably will be a massive AI native social network, but we haven't seen what it looks like just yet, I would say.”
Moore: OpenClaw Is the Most-Starred GitHub Repository of All Time
“So now it's, I think, number one GitHub stars of all time. It passed React, it passed Linux.”
Moore: OpenClaw Will Spawn Verticalized AI Agent Variants
“OpenClaw itself will continue to succeed and be a massive product. And I'm guessing we'll see more kind of like verticalized focused versions of OpenClaw for different use cases.”
Moore: Meta Acquired AI Agent Startup Manus for Over $2B
“They had a two billion dollar plus acquisition by Meta, also in the course of the list.”
Moore: Top-Revenue Prosumer AI Apps Generate Minimal Web Traffic
“Some of the consumer prosumer AI apps that are generating the most revenue have very few, very little usage on web. It's almost all in kind of a dedicated app.”
Moore: AI Browsers Lack Killer Features to Overcome Switching Costs
“For the average consumer, the switching cost of a browser is non-trivial, just because, like, you have workflows set up, you naturally just open this one app. And so it not only has to be, like, feature parity, there has to be one or two features of the AI bro…”