why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
McMaster: Low-cost emerging market manufacturers will decimate tier-one OEMs like Samsung
“Emerging markets are going to lead to the decimation of tier one OEMs, because the Samsungs, et cetera, will not be able to compete at that level.”
Assertion Contradicted
Sinofsky: Only Samsung and LG can manufacture full home appliance suites
“God, that means that all of these companies are gonna have to make all of those parts, and there are only two companies that can do that, which is Samsung and LG.”
Insight
Evans: Apple's vertical integration gives it a structural advantage over Android
“Whether it's good or not, it's the kind of thing that's very, that's much more difficult for an Android OEM to do because Apple controls the operating system and all the apps as well. Whereas whenever Samsung tries to do something like that, it only works with…”
Opinion
Evans: Samsung cannot replicate Apple's ability to sell a $10,000 watch
“It's impossible, effectively, for Samsung to copy that. You can argue about Apple's ability to sell a 10,000 dollar watch. I don't think anybody would argue about Samsung's ability to sell a 10,000 dollar watch.”
What-if
Sinofsky: Chinese smartphones would lead US market share if permitted
“If they were to be able to sell them here, which, you know, is a challenge, you know, those phones would all be these share leaders, and it wouldn't just be Samsung and the AT&T store, for example.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Intel is ahead of Samsung on 2nm process technology
“They think, I think industry generally agrees that Intel is further along you know, the sort of the two nanometer class process technology than Samsung is but both are way behind TSMC.”
Opinion
Sinofsky: Samsung putting screens and ARM chips in everything is overkill
“Samsung makes screens, and they make arm chips, so they seem to decide that every little device has to have a screen with an arm chip in it, and that just seems like overkill.”
Insight
Evans argues Apple's full-stack integration creates superior user experiences over Android.
“It's something where it's easier for Apple to create a really great customer experience, because Apple knows what lens and what GPU and what image processing chip is in the phone. Whereas when you are at Android or at Samsung, you've got that kind of disconnec…”
Prediction Held up
Sinofsky: Android OEMs will launch dozens of VR headsets by 2017
“Fast forward this, 1218 months, and you could see the reviews and the columns, and it's going to be the Samsung VR kit, the Xiaomi VR kit, and just like 12 different ones that are like the same but different, and people are going to evaluate those, and then th…”
Assertion Supported
McMaster: Micromax surpassed Samsung as India's top smartphone manufacturer
“Last August, they surpassed Samsung as volume shipment sales in India. Last week, they passed Samsung as the number one smartphone manufacturer in India, right? They're now a top 10 global OEM, right?”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Emerging Chinese smartphone makers are hurting Samsung, not Apple
“In precisely the period that you have half a dozen Chinese manufacturers coming into market with really good design and strong brand, which show me is only the most obvious, and what's happening is those guys are killing Samsung, they're not touching Apple at …”
Opinion
Dixon: Samsung's smartwatch strategy merely shrinks phones without solving use cases
“Yeah, it's interesting, because I think, like, a lot of the views, like, if you look at the Samsung Watch, it's basically that their idea is just, let's just take the phone, and shrink it, and remove some features, and put it on your wrist, right?”
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: None of the original cellular pioneers remain in the handset business
“If you think back again, 15 years ago, none of the companies that kind of created cellular are in the handset business anymore. Like, none of them. They're all out of it. Like, Nokia, Ericsson, Siemens, you know, Motorola. All of those companies are out of the…”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple captured Samsung's high-end smartphone market share with larger iPhones
“Apple has always been pretty secure in its market, and then it sounds like Apple had, as it might be, a half to two-thirds of the high-end, and Samsung had most of the rest. With the big phone, it took, big phones last year, it took a lot more of that, and you…”
Insight
Kasireddy: IoT startups should build open tech immediately, not wait for tech giants
“I don't think they should wait. I think they should build their technology to be open scalable, and I think Samsung already has an open platform, so There's no reason to wait, because consumers know it's out there, they're ready for it, and I think it's their,…”
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Samsung Captured Half of Android Volume and Almost All Profits
“There's been a question for two or three years as to what was going to happen with Samsung, which had taken half of the Android market by volume and almost all the profits.”
Opinion
Evans: iPhone 6 launch poses a direct competitive problem for Samsung
“And the obvious takeaway is that this is a competitive problem for Samsung.”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Chinese teenagers prefer iPhones and Xiaomi over Samsung
“Indeed, if you then ask Chinese teenagers what brand they want, first they say they want an iPhone, then they say they want a phone from interesting new brands like Xiaomi or Meizu and Samsung is a hand-me-down phone they get from their grandmother. They all h…”
Assertion Partly supported
Mónica: HTC and Samsung added crypto hardware processors to phones
“The current hardware manufacturers that you use, HTC and Samsung, have been adding features to their phones, crypto processors, that have the sole purpose of maintaining safely private keys on your devices.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Russell: Millions will get free Gear VR headsets in coming months
“So we're gonna see potentially millions of people get a VR headset for free in the next couple of months.”
Opinion
Sinofsky: CES offers an unmatched view of the tech supply chain
“What I really do love is just, it's an opportunity to sort of see everything at once. Now, it's not quite everything, because a bunch of the big companies don't go, you can't really see a ton of startups, but it really is like a snapshot of a massive amount of…”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Samsung once controlled half of the global Android market by volume
“Samsung had half of the Android market by volume, more or less, and so that was kind of concerning for Google, that you had this big, powerful partner.”
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: iPhone ASP is $600 compared to Android's $250 average
“They sell a phone that an average of 600 dollars, In an industry that averages about a 180, and Android averages about 250. And in the high-end space, they have, as it might be, two thirds to three quarters of the market, and Samsung has most of the rest.”
Assertion Supported
Cronin: Samsung Gear VR is priced at $100 plus smartphone cost
“Now Sam, with the Gear VR, you have something that's available for anyone to buy for a hundred dollars on top of the price of A Samsung phone.”