The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kuyda: AI chatbots are in their MS-DOS era before a Mac OS moment
“The current chatbots are really the Microsoft DOS era for AI interfaces, and that there will be some sort of a Windows Mac OS moment.”
Eugenia Kuyda Nov 5, 2025 ▶ 3:44 Seeing The Future from AI Companions to Personal Software
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stephen Sinofsky: Legacy desktop OSs cannot retroactively add mobile architecture features
“All the things about power management and security and reliability this whole sealed case notion of the phone and the tablet OS's, these modern OS's, these are huge, huge benefits. And there, there's no way of sort of retroactively adding those to the existing…”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:50 a16z Podcast | When Your PC Expires, What's Next?
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Benedict Evans: Consumers will converge on owning two main device screens
“You're just going to have this endless proliferation of screens, and people will have two, probably. They'll have one that they put in their pocket and carry everywhere. They will have, they may or may not have a much bigger one that allows them to do more stu…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:08 a16z Podcast | When Your PC Expires, What's Next?
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