The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 68 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
Schroeder: Over six million illegal iPhones are in use in Iran
“IPhones are illegal, and there are over six million iPhones there.”
Chris Schroeder Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 16:26 a16z Podcast | Layering Tech and Culture in Iran
Insight
Benedict Evans: Apple Watch strategy enhances iPhone, unlike Google's cloud approach
“I mean, I think, you know, to Stephen's point about platform, this is clearly, you know, and again, this is what speaks to the, again, a sort of thing I talk about a lot, which is kind of a difference between Apple and Google, which is for Google, there's a wh…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 19:16 a16z Podcast | Apple Watch -- Looking for New Things Done in New Ways
Prediction Held up
Sinofsky: Apple is on a path to untether the Watch from the iPhone
“The one thing I will say that's going to be magical is how Apple Like, evolves, their historic way of doing things has been to tether them, and then untether them over time, and so what I think is going to be interesting to see is if they can untether the watc…”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:33 a16z Podcast | Apple Watch -- Looking for New Things Done in New Ways
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chen: Apple monetizes via upfront hardware, not advertising revenue streams
“Apple's made the money it wants to make from you as soon as you buy the iPhone. It doesn't need an ongoing stream of advertising revenue on back, on the back of that for it to make its business model work.”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:44 a16z Podcast | Apple Takes on Payments and Your Wrist
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Benedict Evans: Installing a smartphone app won't mean downloading code within five years
“If I was to say I installed an app on my Android smartphone in five years, I don't really know what that would mean. You know, what would install mean? You know, what would app actually mean? What would Android mean? And so there's that question. Yeah, exactly…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:13 a16z Podcast | Searching for Mobile’s Own PageRank
Insight
Rampell: Plastic credit cards have advantages over smartphones like unlimited battery life
“The problem is not, I pay with plastic, and by the way, plastic has unlimited battery life and a lot of other very, very positive attributes vis-a-vis an iPhone or a Samsung phone.”
Alex Rampell Jul 16, 2017 ▶ 8:50 What Happens When Mobile (Really) Hits the Wallet
Assertion Supported
Evans: Smartphone sales exceed the camera industry's entire historical unit sales
“And more iPhone and Android, more iPhones and Android phones have been sold and were sold by the camera industry in its entire history.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 20:06 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Assertion Supported
Evans: Chinese teenagers prefer iPhones and Xiaomi over Samsung
“Indeed, if you then ask Chinese teenagers what brand they want, first they say they want an iPhone, then they say they want a phone from interesting new brands like Xiaomi or Meizu and Samsung is a hand-me-down phone they get from their grandmother. They all h…”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 6:53 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Evans: One iPhone launch sold 25x all 1995 computer transistors combined
“In the iPhone launch weekend, if you add up all the CPUs in all the iPhones Apple sold, They did about 25 times more transistors than were in all the computers on Earth back in 1995.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 1:27 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2014
Assertion Supported
David George: Pre-iPhone consensus models underestimated Apple by 3x
“Consensus models were off for Apple's performance by a factor of three X over four years.”
David George Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 29:30 AI Markets: Deep Dive with a16z's David George
Assertion Supported
Acharya: Apple had 6M iPhones distributed when App Store launched
“When the App Store came out, there were six million iPhones in distribution, right?”
Anish Acharya Oct 22, 2025 ▶ 1:17:22 Why Creativity Will Matter More Than Code | Kevin Rose and Anish Acharya
Assertion Supported
Chen: Mojo Vision's micro-display features 14,000 PPI density
“Made out of micro LEDs, this thing is half a millimeter across and has a pixel density of 14,000 pixels per inch. The latest greatest iPhone clocks in as just under 500, so this thing has 30, 40 times the pixel density of the latest greatest iPhone and is half…”
Frank Chen Dec 30, 2019 ▶ 26:33 Imagining Our Future Through Tech
Assertion Supported
Evans: 800M to 900M of Earth's 4B smartphones are iPhones
“There's five and a half billion adults on earth, and four billion or so people have a smartphone, and 809 hundred million of those now are iPhones.”
Benedict Evans Apr 1, 2019 ▶ 7:14 a16z Podcast | How Many Taps in the Apple (Plus) Tree?
Disclosure
Ken Kocienda Invented the iPhone Magnifying Loupe for Cursor Placement
“The one thing that I did implement for the first iPhone was the loop. So you press and hold, and it would give that little magnifying glass above your finger that would show. And the whole idea of that is that we wanted your finger to be right where The insert…”
Ken Kocienda Feb 24, 2019 ▶ 50:47 Inside the Apple Factory: Software Design in the Age of Steve Jobs
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple has 650 million iPhone users
“Apple's got six hundred and fifty million iPhone users.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:10 a16z Podcast | So Where Are We on the 'S-curve' for PC Devices?
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Benedict Evans: Bosch displayed 15 diverse products using identical sensor components
“Bosch had this great display where they had, like, 15 different consumer electronics products from the surface to an iPhone to a drone to a Nest, and they all had the same Bosch component sensor, sort of tilt sensor switch or something in them.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:52 a16z Podcast | Software is What Distinguishes the Hardware Winners
Assertion Supported
McKinnon: Apple Touch ID dramatically increased iPhone passcode adoption rates
“They've turned on passcodes and more people are, have their phones locked now than ever before because they made it easier. You didn't have to type in that code and now they have a fingerprint reader.”
Todd McKinnon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:01 a16z Podcast | Making Security More Useable
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple sold 75 million iPhones, capturing 15% global market share
“Apple sold, getting on for 15% of all the phones sold on Earth in the last quarter, in the December quarter... Seventy-five million units.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:58 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Assertion Supported
Evans: iPad sales hit flatline while iPhone continues strong growth
“And the iPhone is growing quite strongly, and the iPad has been effectively flat for a year.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:18 a16z Podcast | The Micro and Macro of Mobile
Assertion Supported
Evans: iPhones average $600 while Android phones average $250-$300
“Another reason is that iPhones average 600 dollars, and Android phones seem to average about 250 to 300 dollars.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:40 a16z Podcast | Google I/O -- A Three-Hour Tour (in 30 minutes)
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