The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Ashatosh: Azure and IBM will beat AWS in enterprise cloud within two years
“In fact, we predict that the number one enterprise cloud in the next two years is probably going to be Azure, and not AWS, just because they are sucking up a tremendous amount of footprint of applications. And number two actually might be IBM, and not AWS, as …”
Ash Ashatosh Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:42 a16z Podcast | Dell + EMC -- Why the Python Just Ate the Cow
Assertion Supported
IBM's competing product relies on technology Hindawi invented at age 18
“You're buying something if you buy it from IBM that I invented when I was 18 years old and had absolutely no idea what I was doing, and you can either do that or buy the product that I had 15 years of learning that I put into with, You know, a much newer archi…”
Orion Hindawi Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:54 a16z Podcast | The Fundamentals of Security and the Story of Tanium’s Growth
Assertion Partly supported
Marc Andreessen claims the first smartphone traces back to 1982
“The smartphone was not a new creation in 2007. The first smartphone actually came out. If you trace it all the way back, it came out in 1982. But IBM actually released something that actually looks a lot like an iPhone in 1987.”
Marc Andreessen May 28, 2025 ▶ 34:11 Rick Rubin: Vibe Coding is the Punk Rock of Software
Assertion Partly supported
Unicode Voting Power Concentrated Among US Tech Giants, SAP, and Oman
“No, so of those 12, so of those 12, nine are U.S. Multinational tech companies. Oracle, IBM, Google, Yahoo, Adobe, Facebook, Microsoft, and Symantec. Then of the other three full voting members, one is the German software company SAP, another is the Chinese te…”
Jenny Lee Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:13 a16z Podcast | Not all Network Effects Are Created Equal
Assertion Partly supported
Andreessen: IBM founder Thomas Watson Sr. was convicted of antitrust in his 30s
“Thomas Watson, senior who founded, founded IBM, the guy who founded IBM. He founded IBM in his forties. In his thirties, he was convicted by the federal government of antitrust. He was, like, convicted of antitrust violations for running his previous company, …”
Marc Andreessen Jun 12, 2025 ▶ 25:46 Adam Neumann: This is How You Build Iconic Companies
Assertion Supported
Sinofsky: IBM beat S&P 500 by 7x post-mainframe peak
“And if you just use the stock price measure, which obviously has all the other variables associated with it, but it actually, IBM beat the S&P 500 by seven X over that 20 year timeframe on the back of a dead mainframe.”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:02 a16z Podcast | The $200 PC in the Enterprise
Assertion Supported
Lakhani: Tech Analysts Emerged to Decode IBM's Opaque Market Position
“Analysts as we know them today really came about because there was a point in time in history where IBM was a firm that moved the markets the largest and there was no information about what IBM was doing outside of IBM and financial analysts couldn't get to th…”
Anil Lakhani Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:17 a16z Podcast | What Startups Should Know about Analyst Relations
Assertion Partly supported
Casado: IBM has posted multiple consecutive quarters of losses
“IBM has posted a lot of quarter on quarter losses.”
Martín Casado Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 0:33 Trends in and the Future of Infrastructure
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