The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2027
Horowitz: Big Tech's startup cloud deals involve illegal roundtripping accounting
“The big tech companies have done this thing which we thought was illegal because we observed it occur at AOL and people went to jail, but what they've done is they invest in startups, you know, huge amounts of money. Microsoft and Amazon and Google are all doi…”
Ben Horowitz Apr 2, 2024 ▶ 54:30 Politics & the Future of Tech
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2028
Baker: Major custom AI ASIC programs will be canceled within three years
“In the next three years, I think you'll see a bunch of high-profile ASIC programs canceled, especially if Google starts selling TPUs externally, which has been all over X.”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 25:10 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2038
Andreessen: Winning tech companies in 20 years will be 100x larger than Google
“The winning companies, you know, the winning entrepreneurial companies 20 years from now that win are going to be Staggeringly large. Like, they're going to be like, I don't know, 10 or a hundred times the size of Google and Facebook.”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:35 a16z Podcast | Talent, Tech Trends, and Culture -- with Ben, Marc, and Tyler Cowen
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Evans: Microsoft, Meta, and Google spending over 50% of revenue on CapEx
“Microsoft, Meta, and Google are all on, in line to spend over 50% of revenue on CapEx this year.”
Benedict Evans Jun 8, 2026 ▶ 48:31 The Economics of AI Usage and What's Next For SaaS | Benedict Evans on a16z
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jul 2020
Popa: Google Encrypted Query is based on CryptDB
“Google's encrypted query is based on CryptDB.”
Raluca Ada Popa Jul 28, 2017 ▶ 13:20 Raluca Ada Popa
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