The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Google surpassed OpenAI and Anthropic in total AI traffic
“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”
Gavin Baker Oct 30, 2025 ▶ 8:48 "Is there an AI bubble?” Gavin Baker and David George
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Global annual photos taken likely reaches 10 to 100 trillion
“Even if you just add up the numbers from Facebook and Snapchat, Facebook and Instagram and WhatsApp and so on, you get to about eight or nine hundred billion photographs taken last year. And that's just, sorry, shared. So if there were eight or nine hundred bi…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:30 a16z Podcast | For Google, Android is a Tactic and Cloud is a Strategy
Assertion Contradicted
Khalaf: Payment cards have wider reach than Google, Facebook, and clean water
“Because if you think about a payment card, it's the most adopted technological product ever invented. More distribution than Google and Facebook combined. More distribution than clean water. And it's still a piece of plastic for many.”
Simon Khalaf Jun 20, 2024 ▶ 3:55 Zach Perret (Plaid) & Simon Khalaf (Marqeta): New Applications in Fintech
Assertion Contradicted
McMaster: Google's Android Wear contains no open-source components whatsoever
“If you look at Android Wear today, that is incredibly close. There is no open source component to Android Wear whatsoever, right?”
Kurt McMaster Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:15 a16z Podcast | Searching for Mobile's Third OS
Assertion Contradicted
Rabois asserts Apple's profits exceed Google's total revenues
“Their profits are greater than like Google's revenues or something.”
Keith Rabois Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 26:02 Keith Rabois: Israel, OpenAI, Opendoor, and DOGE
Assertion Contradicted
Olivia Moore: NotebookLM pioneered realistic conversational disfluencies in AI voice
“Notebook LM came out, and that was the first real voice experience that put in those ums, ahs, pauses, other things that are so human-like”
Olivia Moore Jun 13, 2025 ▶ 8:51 What You Missed in AI This Week (Google, Apple, ChatGPT)
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Big Tech annual capital expenditure reached $34 billion in 2015
“Annual capex across these companies has gone from one billion dollars in 2000 to thirty four billion dollars in 2015.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 3:44 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
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