why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Contradicted
Baker: Google surpassed OpenAI and Anthropic in total AI traffic
“I think they've taken 15 or 20 points of traffic share in the last two or three months, and that does not, that's just traffic to Gemini. It does not include search overviews. I suspect on a actual traffic basis, Google is bigger than OpenAI, Anthropic, anyone…”
Assertion Supported
George: Google's Gemini models are currently state-of-the-art across multiple domains
“They actually have the best models right now. Like, they have the leading, you know, the state-of-the-art models in Gemini across a bunch of different domains.”
Assertion Partly supported
Andreessen: Google shelved 2017 transformer breakthrough until startups forced its hand
“Google invented the transformer in 2017 and then put it on a shelf. And then startups came in and sort of picked up that idea and ran with it, OpenAI and now Anthropic and others and many others now. And then as a consequence, Google has now been forced to rea…”
Assertion Supported
Moore: ChatGPT Is 30x Larger Than Claude on Web, 80x on Mobile
“On web, they're 2.7 times bigger than Gemini. On mobile, they're 2.5 times bigger than Gemini. And then, despite, again, like, the kind of tech Twitter discourse Claude, they're almost 30 times bigger than Claude on web, and almost 80 times bigger than Claude …”
Assertion Supported
Olivia Moore: Gemini hits 50% of ChatGPT scale on Android, 17% on iOS
“Like, if you look at Android, Gemini is at, like, 50% of ChatGPT's scale on mobile, whereas on iOS it's, like, 17%.”
Assertion Supported
Labenz: Google's AI Co-Scientist solved an open virology problem independently
“And they gave it legitimately unsolved problems in science, and in one particularly famous, kind of notorious case, it came up with a Hypothesis, which it wasn't able to verify because it doesn't have direct access to actually run the experiments in the lab, b…”
Assertion Supported
Google Gemini reaches half of ChatGPT's mobile app traffic
“Gemini was number two. It was right behind ChatGPT. It has just about 10% of ChatGPT's traffic on web, but it's much closer on mobile. It's like half of ChatGPT's traffic on the mobile app, which is interesting. It's mostly Android users, which I think you wou…”
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: Gemini User Traction Correlates With Creative Model Releases
“So if you look at their kind of active users and paying users, it's nearly perfectly correlated to releases of like VO three, Nano Banana One, Nano Banana Pro, Nano Banana Two.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: China Has Lowest Combined ChatGPT and Gemini Usage at 15%
“They actually have the lowest combined Chachi, BT, and Gemini usage of any country. It's only 15%.”