The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Epoch AI: 20-30% chance AI causes sudden 5% unemployment spike
“The, like, interesting scenario to think about, you know, 20% chance, 30% chance something like this will happen in the next decade is like, you know, a five percent increase in unemployment over, over a very short period of time, like six months, due to AI.”
Epoch AI: Current trends project a few percent GDP boost by 2030
“My best guess on current trends is this fairly well-defined, you know, few percent of GDP in 2030 thing, which is already pretty crazy by economic standards.”
David Owen: AI will automate all remote work within 25 years
“Like, my sort of, you know, guesses, my, like, judgmental forecasts, to use the fancy term, for just kind of can do any remote work tasks. Probably have a median of about, like, 20, 25 years. I kind of struggle to imagine a world where that happens, and people…”
Yafah Edelman: The modal timeline for artificial superintelligence is 2045
“I have, I think I am on the record as saying that the median timeline I discussed or the modal timeline, sorry I think it's modal, yeah which might be on the early side compared to where my median is is, you know, twenty-forty-five was where, when I did the po…”
David Owen: Experimental compute receives far more funding than final training runs
“As far as we can tell, experimental compute, which you seem to need to do research, is also, is receiving a similar amount of money, and that in fact it's receiving many times more money than the final training runs that are actually, of the models that are ac…”
Epoch AI: 90% of code will eventually be written by AI
“I mean, far more than 90% of the code I write is written by AI these days but I know I'm not like the average coder at all, but it's definitely, I don't think it's like a wild prediction at this point that 90% of code is going to be written by AI.”
Yafah Edelman: Robotics training runs use 100x less compute than frontier LLMs
“What we found is that like compute it, the training runs that are being used for robotics are like a hundred times smaller than the training runs that are being used for Than the training runs that are being used for, like, frontier models.”
David Owen: Vision limitations cause computer-use agents to get stuck in UI loops
“I do think that there is a sense in which models are a little bit artificially hobbled by their vision capabilities. Like, it does seem as if a common pattern you see when you try to get models to do stuff with a GUI is they kind of get a bit confused about ma…”
Epoch AI: Government attention to AI will double or triple annually
“I think that right now we've seen this thing in revenue and finances where it's been doubling or tripling every year. And my default assumption is that attention that AI gets from policymakers and governments is going to follow a similar trend where it will do…”
David Owen: Epoch AI used ChatGPT agents to search local data center permits
“We used ChatGPT agent in our data center research, because a lot of what we have to do is find permits, which are all going to be on janky county by county databases of error permits for, you know, the county that Abilene, Texas is in and I don't know what dat…”