why aren't all 136 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: Addressing ChatGPT's sycophantic tone is technically easy
“So it's not, technically, it's not hard to deal with at all.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Altman: Industry gaming LLM search recommendations emerged in past year
“So this is a very sudden shift that has happened. We never used to hear about this, like, six months ago, 12 months ago. Certainly. And now, there's like, a real cottage industry that feels like it's sprouted up overnight. Trying to do this.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Altman: ChatGPT will automatically adapt personality based on user interaction
“I mean, ideally, like you just talk to ChatGPT for a little while and it kind of interviews you and also sort of sees what you like and don't like and.”
Disclosure
Lazzarin prompts ChatGPT, Anthropic, and Grok simultaneously for medical queries
“To be honest, I'll send the same thing to ChatGPT, Anthropic, and Grok at the same time, force them to fight against each other and then end up with just kind of a list of interesting sources that I put in front of the doctor.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moore: LLM hallucinations force shoppers back to Google and Amazon
“All, like, all LLMs, but I'll use ChatGPT as the example, because the most people use it have this really unfortunate and annoying problem of hallucinating around product recommendations that basically everyone experienced if you tried to use it for that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Rampell: AI platforms will make marketing attribution harder to untangle
“And this is only going to get more complicated in the AI world, where, like, it might be the same thing, where it's like, Justine might have researched on Reddit, saw the Super Bowl, like, did all of these things, Asked a question on ChatGPT and then clicked p…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Only three AI app categories had sustained usage two years ago
“Companionship and general LLM assistance, like ChatGPT, and then creative tools were kind of the three categories that were working two years ago. And anything else that popped up on the list, in many cases, was pretty random, and would spike one month and be …”
Insight
Lingelbach: Iconic AI companies win by solving the UX last mile
“When I think about, like, the most iconic companies in the space, They did that last mile, right? Like, ChatGPT has built out a really good user experience for interacting with LLMs, and they've built things into that core workflow that people aren't coming fo…”
Insight
Isa Fulford: AI user patience quickly shifts from minutes to 30 seconds
“Initially people are like, oh, this is amazing. It's doing all this work. That would have taken me so long, and now people are like, ok, but I want it, now I want it in 30 seconds.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Olivia Moore: ChatGPT pioneered real-time consumer voice in September 2023
“ChatGPT was the first one to do what I would call kind of real-time consumer voice. Where you could have, like, a conversation. And this was, like, last September in the ChatGPT app.”
Opinion
Justine Moore: Google Veo 3 Is AI Video's ChatGPT Moment
“VO three was sort of like the chat GPT moment for AI video.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Adam Neumann: AI helps dyslexic individuals write without spelling mistakes
“I have a lot of dyslexic friends now who keep, everyone keeps calling me about how they're using AI to write stuff because it's just, they're not making mistakes anymore because my kind of dyslexia, even when you do the auto, even if you need, when you did it …”
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: ChatGPT web visits remained flat from February 2023 to February 2024
“Between February, 20, 23, basically for a whole year through February, 20, 24, it was essentially flat in monthly visits to the website.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: DeepSeek mobile app achieves 7% 30-day retention versus ChatGPT's 9%
“On a retention basis, like, how many users are coming back to the app, say, Exactly 30 days, exactly seven days, exactly 60 days. It's just slightly below ChatGPT. So we're looking at seven percent day 30 for DeepSeq and nine percent day 30 for ChatGPT.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: ChatGPT doubled weekly active users to 400M in six months
“In the past six months, they grew from two hundred million to four hundred million weekly active users.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: DeepSeek reached #2 AI web product within a week of launch
“We only had 10 days of data for Deep Seek for January, because it launched at the end of the month, and it shot up from literally nothing to number two on the list, you know, 10% of ChatGPT scale on web within a week, a little bit more than a week.”
Assertion Partly supported
Casado: Leading AI consumer products launch web-first before releasing APIs
“Anecdotally, other than like, say, maybe like mid-journey and Discord, all of these are web technologies, like ChatGPT, Ideogram, like all of them, Claude, I mean, it seems like that the first place that they land is a website, and then maybe an API, which you…”
Assertion Supported
Long: Social engineering attacks rose over 4x since ChatGPT launch
“So since ChatGPT came out a little over two years ago, we've seen over a four X increase in social engineering attacks.”
Opinion
Immerman: Gen AI search offers a much better UX than Google
“If you think about the Google experience as it is today, it's just a long list of links. And the first few are sponsored. They're ads. And I, as a user, when I make a query on Google, I then need to make the decision. I have to sift through the information on …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Immerman: Standalone vertical AI search apps will thrive in deep domain research
“For the average query on ChatGPT, Perplexity, or Google, they're pretty good. You don't need a vertical specific application, but for deep domain research, I can imagine a world in which standalone apps thrive.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI's delayed mobile launch cost ChatGPT crucial App Store optimization ground
“The one other interesting thing about mobile was ChatGPT was so slow to launch an app, they lost a little bit of ground just from, like, an, App Store keyword and optimization perspective.”
Assertion Supported
Most top web AI companion apps rely on uncensored models
“Most of them were actually uncensored models. So not to say they were all NSFW, because that isn't necessarily the use case, but they allow you more freedom to talk about different topics, do different things than you can do if you were just trying to use Chat…”
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: ChatGPT stemmed from Alec Radford's early LLM work at OpenAI
“The origin story of even, even ChatGPT is this is not what OpenAI actually started to do. They started to do something different, and then there was actually one guy who actually his name is, I think Alec Radford, and he literally was, like, off in the corner …”
Opinion
Acharya Calls ChatGPT's Voice Module a Top Voice-First Innovation
“I think the second most interesting product, you know, outside of something like 11 is actually just ChatGPT's voice module and their voice sort of interface.”
Insight
Acharya Notes Users Quickly Forget ChatGPT's Voice Interface Is AI
“And you'll be amazed at how quickly you sort of forget that you're talking to an AI and you fall into the flow of a conversation.”
Disclosure
Piff Marti uses ChatGPT to translate music contracts into layman's terms
“I could put a contract into ChatGBT, and it will translate it in layman's terms. Probably not as good as a lawyer, because you still need that human, you know what I mean? Yet, but for me, who couldn't necessarily afford to have a lawyer on retainer, at least …”
Assertion Supported
A Colombian judge wrote an official court opinion using ChatGPT
“A Colombian judge recently wrote one of their opinions using ChatGPT.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: ChatGPT Reaches 10% Global Weekly Active User Penetration
“ChatGPT is by far the biggest global AI product, and still only 10% of the global population is using it on a weekly active basis.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: China Has Lowest Combined ChatGPT and Gemini Usage at 15%
“They actually have the lowest combined Chachi, BT, and Gemini usage of any country. It's only 15%.”
Disclosure
Ben Horowitz uses Grok and ChatGPT every day
“Well, for sure, you know, Grok and ChatGPT I use every day. And then you know, probably I've been playing with, like Veo and Nano Banana a lot on a daily basis of the big guys.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kim: Five of top 10 iOS productivity apps are Google, ChatGPT #1
“If you go to app store today, top five out of top 10 productivity apps are all Google. It's insane. And Chachi B is number one.”
Disclosure
Olivia Moore: Claude has largely replaced ChatGPT as her primary LLM
“Claude has somewhat replaced Chachi Biti for me as my general LLM.”
Assertion Supported
Kuyda: OpenAI research shows one-third of ChatGPT usage is writing help
“OpenAI published one of those research one of those studies showing that these are, in fact, the main use cases for Chagipty. I think a third of all, all of the use was around writing writing help.”
Assertion Supported
Agarwala: HHS deployed enterprise-secure ChatGPT across the entire agency
“HHS rolled out across, you know, agency-wide an enterprise secure version of ChatGPT”
Disclosure
Kim: OpenAI originally considered narrowing ChatGPT to a meeting or coding bot
“At the time, we were kind of thinking, like, okay, we kind of have this chatbot. Should we make this, like, a really specific, like, meeting bot type of thing? Do we, like, make it a coding helper?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI tested early ChatGPT with a 50-person beta group
“We gave early access to about 50 people. Most of those people being, like, people I lived with at the time.”
Assertion Supported
Acharya: ChatGPT has roughly 500 million monthly active users
“ChatGPD has about five hundred million monthly active users.”
Assertion Supported
Murati: ChatGPT uses same core model as OpenAI API plus RLHF
“It's fundamentally the same technology, maybe with a small difference, with reinforcement learning, with human feedback. For ChatGPT, but it's fundamentally the same technology, and the reaction, and the ability to grab people's imagination, and to get them to…”
Assertion Supported
Murati: WebGPT was the direct retrieval-based precursor to ChatGPT
“The precursor to ChatGPT was actually another project that we called WebGPT, and it used, ah, retrieval. To be able to get information and cite sources.”
Disclosure
Postma: Uses ChatGPT to summarize academic machine learning literature
“Also for me, I'm dabbling in all the white papers. I don't have an academic background, so I'm using ChatGPT a lot to summarize those things and understanding it mostly.”