The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 136 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Moore: Roughly One-Third of Americans Use AI Tools Monthly
“Like in the US, it's around probably a third of people are, Monthly active users of something like a ChatGPT.”
George: ChatGPT reached 365 billion searches five times faster than Google
“The time to get to three hundred and sixty five billion searches on chat GPT was two years. The time for Google to get to three hundred and sixty five billion searches was 11 years.”
George: ChatGPT daily users average 30 minutes per day
“Active daily active users of chat GPT are ready today. Spend like 30 minutes at 20, 28, 29 minutes a day on the product. And, you know, to put that into context, I think Instagram's like 50 minutes a day and, you know, tick tock like Sadly, it's like 70 minute…”
Moore: ChatGPT year-over-year growth slowed to 23%
“And ChatGPT is only growing 23% year over year.”
Olivia Moore: Less than 10% of ChatGPT users tried rival LLMs in 2025
“For most of the year, less than 10% of ChatGPT users even visited another one of the big LLM providers.”
Moore: Only 9% of AI users subscribe to multiple major LLMs
“So only nine percent of consumers are paying for more than one out of the group of ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Cursor.”
Olivia Moore: Gemini hits 50% of ChatGPT scale on Android, 17% on iOS
“Like, if you look at Android, Gemini is at, like, 50% of ChatGPT's scale on mobile, whereas on iOS it's, like, 17%.”
Evans: AI startups unbundle ChatGPT like SaaS startups unbundled Excel
“They're unbundling chat GPT, just as the enterprise software company of 10 years ago was unbundling Oracle or Google or Excel.”
Evans: ChatGPT has 800-900 million weekly active users, 5% paying
“ChatGPT has got eight or nine hundred million weekly active users. Five percent of people are paying.”
Sherman Wu: OpenAI API end-user reach previously exceeded ChatGPT's reach
“One thing we talk about internally sometimes is like, what does our end user reach from the API? Like it's actually, it's like really, really, it's really bright. It might even, it's hard because ChatGPT is growing so quickly, but like it, like at some point i…”
Sherman Wu: OpenAI views ChatGPT and Sora as interfaces for core intelligence
“At the end, like, at the end of the day, OpenAI is like a, an AGI company. It's like an intelligence company. And so, agents are just, like, one way in which this intelligence kind of be manifested. And so, the way that I'd say we actually think about internal…”
Sacks: Five major AI model companies are closely clustered in capability
“Fortunately, so far what we're seeing in the market is that it's hyper competitive. There's five major model companies all making huge investments. And the benchmark, the model performance, the evaluations are relatively clustered. And there's a lot of leapfro…”
Rose uses ChatGPT and professional therapy frameworks during marital disagreements
“If I get in a disagreement with my wife, I will take some of that shit to ChatGVT and be like, am I right here? What's going on? You know? And I, but I call and I say, use the framework of Terry Real. I use some of these like professional therapists and say, h…”
Acharya: Consumers are paying up to $300 monthly for AI subscriptions
“The top chat GPT SKU is 200 a month. The top Gemini SKU Google Ultra is two 50. And then Grok is 300 a month. And consumers are actually paying that amount.”
Altman: Paid recommendation ads would destroy user trust in ChatGPT
“People have a very high trust relationship with ChatGPT. Even if it screws up, even if it hallucinates, even if it gets it wrong, people feel like it is trying to help them and that it's trying to do the right thing. And if we broke that trust, it's like you s…”
Kupor: OPM finally deployed ChatGPT to desktops via a $1-a-year GSA deal
“Until this week, we did not have ChatGPT on anybody's actual desktop, right? And so I've been, you know, pounding my CIO, and pounding my CIO, we finally, literally, you know, thanks to the new deal that GSA did for the, you know, the one dollar a year deal, A…”
Fedus: Early ChatGPT was mathematically weak due to friendliness rewards
“The reward functions that we were using originally couldn't determine whether you were mathematically correct or not. So early versions of Chachapiti were mathematically not particularly strong, and it sort of results from the reward function. What did you opt…”
Boyle uploads all pregnancy diagnostic reports to ChatGPT for analysis
“I upload every single medical diagnostic, every blood report, everything to ChatGPT, and it gives me a ton of data. That the doctors don't have time to give me.”
Rampell: Uses ChatGPT three orders of magnitude more than Google
“And then number three was just my own personal behavior of it's just like, I probably use ChatGPT like three orders of magnitude more than I use Google now, which is interesting.”
Google Gemini reaches half of ChatGPT's mobile app traffic
“Gemini was number two. It was right behind ChatGPT. It has just about 10% of ChatGPT's traffic on web, but it's much closer on mobile. It's like half of ChatGPT's traffic on the mobile app, which is interesting. It's mostly Android users, which I think you wou…”
Balaji Srinivasan makes decisions by having multiple AI models debate memos
“I will write sometimes these long memos to an AI, and then continuing, I know maybe you don't love this analogy, but I think it's funny. Continuing the Polytechnology, I'll give them to Brahma, Vishnu, and Shiva, ok? So I'll give them to Chachi Bti and Claude,…”
Zach Cohen: LLMs like ChatGPT are already good enough to teach
“Language models are good enough to teach. Like, they really are, right? Like, if you want to learn something, ChatGPT is a great place to go learn something.”
Olivia Moore: Apple is outsourcing core mobile AI features to ChatGPT
“It does seem like from a lot of Apple's updates that they put out, they're kind of outsourcing a lot of the true AI features to ChatGPT just running on your phone.”
Olivia Moore: Backlash over 'Sky' voice spooked OpenAI from releasing human-sounding AI
“I honestly think a big part of it might have been when they first released advanced voice mode, if you remember all the controversy around her, And was this gonna be a, you know, a companion that replaced humans, and some of what people would think of as kind …”
Acharya: DeepSeek offered reasoning models for free vs OpenAI's paid tier
“So, one I think important nuance is the fact that they released their reasoning model for free at scale, so previously you had to use O-one Pro, and you had to pay ChatGPT's premium subscription to get access to it.”
Acharya: Anthropic's Claude surpasses ChatGPT in coding and creative writing
“Claude sits in this very interesting place where it seems like it's more beloved by a smaller number of people. It's better at, Creative writing. You know, it seems to have more of a personality, which is interesting, because at least I think it's designed to …”
Acharya: Tech incumbents are vastly behind LLM startups in voice AI
“I think that the incumbents, it's just such a daily demonstration of how far behind they are when you both have Google Home in your home and you've got ChatGPT in your pocket. You know, my children try to ask Google Home to tell them stories in the same way th…”
Immerman: 10% of consumers name ChatGPT as primary search engine
“10% of consumers, they're now referring to ChatGPT as their search engine of choice.”
Schmidt: ChatGPT, Llama, and DeepSeek use Nous Research's YaRN context extension
“Bone here is the lead author of a method we developed called YARN, which is a context window extension method that we released and did the research on. It is now used by every, every model you use nowadays, everything, everything Chachipiti, Lama, DeepSeq, all…”
Horowitz: Writers should discard any plot idea ChatGPT easily generates
“If chat GPT can write it, you know, without you prompting it not to write something obvious, then you shouldn't use it.”
Andreessen: GPT-4 can write screenplays using the Save the Cat framework
“One of the things you can do with like GPT-IV, you know, with like ChatGPT or with whatever, you know, Bing, Bing Chat or whatever you can actually use it will write you screenplays today, and what you can do, you can just tell it, write me a screenplay about,…”
Murati: ChatGPT was originally released to gather research feedback for GPT-4
“One of the main things was actually to put chat GPT in the hands of researchers out there that could give us feedback since we had this dialogue modality. And so this was the original intent to actually get feedback from researchers and use it to make GPT-IV m…”
Murati: OpenAI feared ChatGPT was not good enough a week before launch
“It's a strategy that we, we've been using from the beginning and also with ChatGPT where, you know, the week before we were worried that it wasn't good enough. And we also, what happened, you know, we put it out there and then people Told us it is good enough …”
Sal Khan: 40% of teachers used ChatGPT within months of release
“Within a month or two, 40% of teachers were using this very imperfect tool for themselves for things like lesson planning, and students were already using it”
Litt: Claude was useless for research math until Opus 4.5 or 4.6
“One thing is that ChatGPD got better at math earlier. Yes. So, like, for a long time the Claude models were just, like, not useful for research math. And then I think maybe around Opus 4.5 or Opus 4.6, they, like, more or less caught up.”
Litt: Frontier AI models cannot autonomously perform mathematical theory building
“So like, I've tried to get both, both Fable and ChatGPT, 5.6 Sol, I guess, to do some kind of theory building, and it's like, they're not, they definitely are not good at it autonomously, at least with, like, whatever scaffolding I've set up. But with some hin…”
Yang Churned From ChatGPT Over Annoying Repetitive Conversational Prompts
“And dude, I got so annoyed about it that I kind of churned from ChatGPT.”
Yang: OpenAI Will Integrate Personal Agent Capabilities Directly Into ChatGPT
“I mean, I think that's what Peter Steinberg is working out at OpenAI, right? Yeah. He's probably going to build something to ChatGPT, which everybody uses so that ChatGPT can actually get stuff done for you and, like, maybe feels more human.”
Yang: OpenClaw via Telegram feels more personal than Claude or ChatGPT
“Because I've installed on Telegram, it just feels like more personal than using like Cloud or ChatGPT.”
Moore: Claude and ChatGPT App Stores Share Only 11% Overlap
“If you actually look at the app stores that are emerging on Cloud and ChatGPT, they both have 200 plus apps, but there's only 11% overlap.”
Moore: OpenAI's Sora Reached 1 Million Users Faster Than ChatGPT
“And they actually hit a million users faster than ChatGPT itself.”
Moore: Context Lock-In Will Favor Horizontal AI Platforms Like ChatGPT
“I think there's going to be increasing lock-in, and I do think that probably actually benefits the broader, more horizontal tools like ChatGPT”
Rampell: ChatGPT will never get access to proprietary enterprise contracts
“They are never going to get 50 old Deloitte contracts.”
Moore: OpenAI integrated launches into ChatGPT while Google built standalone products
“What we saw was OpenAI tended to keep more things in the ChatGPT interface, so like Pulse, group chats, shopping, research, tasks, all of these features launched inside ChatGPT as the core. The exception there is obviously Sora as a standalone video app, where…”
Olivia Moore: Google Gemini could rival ChatGPT's brand dominance in 2026
“But if they keep doing what they're doing on these amazing viral consumer creative tool launches and model launches, like, they could get there next year.”
Amjad Masad: Non-technical consumers routinely switch between multiple competing AI models
“Not particularly technical consumers actually do use multiple AIs. Like I didn't expect that, like, you know, people only use Google. They never like looked at Google and then Yahoo or like very few people do it. But now you talk to just average people and the…”