The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
McMaster: Apple faces margin pressure and negligible emerging market share
“I believe over time, Apple's even going to have products. You know, problems, because they're not going to be able to sustain these margins, and in these markets where Android is dominant, Apple's market share will be negligible. Right? As these markets contin…”
Kurt McMaster Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:43 a16z Podcast | Searching for Mobile's Third OS
Assertion Contradicted
Horowitz: Steve Jobs was fired from Apple for making products too expensive
“Steve Jobs got fired because he made the product too expensive.”
Ben Horowitz Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:41 a16z Podcast | New Upstarts in an Old Industry
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Evans predicts Apple VR and cars are two to four years away.
“The two big things that are next for Apple are on the one hand VR, or potentially AR, and then on the other hand cars. But just from looking at the state of the technology, but those are both basically two, three, four years away.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:48 a16z Podcast | Apple and the Case of Invisible But Audible Innovation
Assertion Contradicted
Rabois asserts Apple's profits exceed Google's total revenues
“Their profits are greater than like Google's revenues or something.”
Keith Rabois Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 26:02 Keith Rabois: Israel, OpenAI, Opendoor, and DOGE
Assertion Contradicted
Wenmachers: Apple has historically operated without hiring external PR agencies
“I mean, like, yeah, I don't think Apple has really used PR agencies. There are models where you don't have an agency at all.”
Margit Wennmachers Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:57 a16z Podcast | How to Manage a PR Agency
Assertion Contradicted
Apple acquires around a dozen startups per quarter
“And they buy a dozen startups a quarter, you know, but they spend a hundred million here and a hundred million there.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:21 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Assertion Contradicted
Chan: China generated 29% of Apple's global revenue in 2015
“In 2015, China was 29% of Apple's total global revenues.”
Connie Chan Mar 7, 2018 ▶ 2:40 Beyond a Zero-Sum Game: Tech Innovation and China
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Big Tech annual capital expenditure reached $34 billion in 2015
“Annual capex across these companies has gone from one billion dollars in 2000 to thirty four billion dollars in 2015.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 3:44 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2016
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Apple devices account for the majority of global mobile web browsing
“Apple devices have a majority of all the web browsing happening on mobile devices.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 13:39 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Assertion Contradicted
James Rogers: Middle Age monks preserved apples through winter using beeswax
“Monks discovered in the Middle Ages that you were able to dip apples in beeswax, and they would last throughout the winter.”
James Rogers Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:07 a16z Podcast | Produce or Perish! (What We Eat)
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