The Ledger

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why aren't all 109 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Wenmachers: Apple has historically operated without hiring external PR agencies
“I mean, like, yeah, I don't think Apple has really used PR agencies. There are models where you don't have an agency at all.”
Margit Wennmachers Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:57 a16z Podcast | How to Manage a PR Agency
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple's 2018 iPhone lineup expands to roughly 50 global SKUs
“They've got six colors and multiple memory sizes, so you kind of count up all the SKUs they're going to have, plus the SKUs for different regions, plus the multiple SIM thing for China. They're going to have like 50 SKUs as opposed to one SKU.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:09 a16z Podcast | What's at the Core of the Latest Apple Announcement?
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple controls 66% to 75% of high-end smartphone market
“And so you've got this sort of mix where Apple has got As it might be two thirds to three quarters of the high end space.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:32 a16z Podcast | What's at the Core of the Latest Apple Announcement?
Assertion Partly supported
Rampell: Apple built Apple Maps in six months and fired the lead
“I mean, if you think about what happened at Apple, Apple built Apple Maps in six months. The person behind it got fired because it didn't work very well, but that was an almost impossible job.”
Alex Rampell Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:15 a16z Podcast | Principles and Algorithms for Work and Life
Assertion Partly supported
Mariotti: Only 10% of Apple product components are built in-house
“Even at Apple, 10% of all the pieces are built by Apple. Actually, 90%, it comes from outside.”
Augusto Marietti Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:56 a16z Podcast | The API Economy -- The Why, What, and How
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Founders control all top tech giants except Apple
“And they all, except for Apple, the founders control the company.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 26:59 a16z Podcast | Platforming the Future
Assertion Supported
Evans notes the Apple Watch is the second-largest watch business by revenue.
“Apple put up a slide saying that it's the second biggest watch business by revenue between Fossil and Rolex, which is like three or four billion dollars.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:57 a16z Podcast | Apple and the Case of Invisible But Audible Innovation
Prediction Held up
Chen: Full applications will eventually run directly inside Apple's iMessage
“It's only a matter of time before you get a full on application in there.”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:47 a16z Podcast | Apple and the Widgetification of Everything
Assertion Partly supported
Strange: Millennials trust tech giants more than traditional banks
“There's definitely a lot around the millennial generation and how, you know, they hate going to their banks more than they hate going to the dentist. They would actually trust Apple, Google, name your tech Institute more than banks.”
Angela Strange Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:54 a16z Podcast | When Banking Works Like My Smartphone
Assertion Supported
Burbidge: Nearly 80% of millennials trust tech giants over banks
“Certainly more than 50, I think it was close to 80% of millennials trust the brands, you know, Facebook or Google. Or Apple, I think was the top of the pile, much more than their banks.”
Eileen Burbage Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 32:18 a16z Podcast | Fintech from the World's Financial Capital -- London
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple built tvOS architecture enabling full cable app integration
“Apple has kind of built the architecture that would let you do that. They built the architecture that would let Comcast do that, if Comcast chooses to do that, but they didn't have it on the stage.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 25:26 a16z Podcast | Apple Has Lock on Luxury Smartphones, But Not Business of TV
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple TV adds an SDK but leaves TV's commercial model intact
“Version two of the Apple TV is not a fundamentally new product. That is to say, it's basically the same UI concept. It's basically the same stuff, except that now there's an SDK. So to get HBO onto it, Apple doesn't have to write the app. To get X or Y or Z on…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:41 a16z Podcast | Apple Has Lock on Luxury Smartphones, But Not Business of TV
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple's iPhone Upgrade Program uses off-balance-sheet third-party financing
“It's not even on their balance sheet. It's been done by a third-party financing company and, you know, GM made with a low-margin business, and all the margin was actually coming from the financing. I don't think Apple are doing that here, and we want to have t…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:08 a16z Podcast | Apple Has Lock on Luxury Smartphones, But Not Business of TV
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple captured Samsung's high-end smartphone market share with larger iPhones
“Apple has always been pretty secure in its market, and then it sounds like Apple had, as it might be, a half to two-thirds of the high-end, and Samsung had most of the rest. With the big phone, it took, big phones last year, it took a lot more of that, and you…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:29 a16z Podcast | Apple Has Lock on Luxury Smartphones, But Not Business of TV
Assertion Supported
Boneh: Big tech security teams possess the authority to delay product launches
“In big companies like Microsoft, Apple, Google security teams in fact are involved in the process from the design phase, which is really important. And then if a product is about to ship out and a security, the security team discovers a big vulnerability, they…”
Dan Boneh Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 37:23 a16z Podcast | Crypto, Security, CS, Quantum Computing, and More with Our New Professor-in-Residence
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple disrupted mobile by treating cellular networks as transparent data pipes
“One of the things that allowed Apple to disrupt everything was by saying, no, no, no, no, it's just a piece of wire, and we ignore it completely. We make zero effort to optimize bandwidth, and, you know, it's kind of an overstatement, but we just completely ig…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:09 a16z Podcast | Location, Location, Location -- and Mobile
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple Proactive processes ML locally on-device rather than cloud
“The difference, of course, is that Apple says it's all being done on the device. It's not going into the cloud.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:30 a16z Podcast | Apple Gets Its Music Streaming and Gives News Another Try
Prediction Held up
Sinofsky: Apple is on a path to untether the Watch from the iPhone
“The one thing I will say that's going to be magical is how Apple Like, evolves, their historic way of doing things has been to tether them, and then untether them over time, and so what I think is going to be interesting to see is if they can untether the watc…”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:33 a16z Podcast | Apple Watch -- Looking for New Things Done in New Ways
Assertion Supported
Andreessen: Apple deliberately designed Apple Pay tokenization to avoid fraud liability
“Apple's very deliberately crafted Apple Pay so that they're not holding the bag. Just to be clear. There's actually a very clever technique with tokenization where it's definitely all somebody else's fault.”
Marc Andreessen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:54 a16z Podcast | Security's Painful Prominence and Why There is No Turning Back
Prediction Partly held up
Evans: Apple will capture the top 15% of global mobile users
“Apple's gonna have the top 15% 10 to 15% of all the mobile phone users on earth, and Android will have most of the rest.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:18 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple drove 80% of U.S. Black Friday e-commerce spending
“They had 80% of all the e-commerce revenue on the Black Friday spending festival in the U.S., and About half of global web browsing, depending on which numbers you believe, and it could be a third, could be two thirds, depending.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:17 a16z Podcast | Enough with the Old Stuff -- Time for New Questions in Mobile
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple sells top 10% of global phone volume, Android 50%
“Apple is selling the top 10% of all the phones on Earth, And that's growing steadily, and Android takes the next 50% of all the phones sold on Earth, and that's growing slightly faster.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:55 a16z Podcast | Enough with the Old Stuff -- Time for New Questions in Mobile
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple holds only half of the high-end smartphone market
“When you look at the high end segment, that Apple is really the only place Apple competes they've probably only got around half of that segment, and the other half is high end Android, and almost all of that high end Android is with bigger screens.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:51 a16z Podcast | Apple Takes on Payments and Your Wrist
Assertion Contradicted
Apple acquires around a dozen startups per quarter
“And they buy a dozen startups a quarter, you know, but they spend a hundred million here and a hundred million there.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:21 a16z Podcast | Everything You Need to Know About Amazon
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Active iPad installed base exceeds active Mac base by 2x
“There's probably a 180 to two hundred million iPads in use now, Versus about eighty million Macs, according to Apple.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:54 a16z Podcast | The Micro and Macro of Mobile
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple operates the world's largest installation of SAP enterprise software
“Apple's the world's biggest SAP installation.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:54 a16z Podcast | The Rise of Full Stack Startups
Assertion Supported
Evans: iPhone 6 launch weekend sales contained 25x 1995 global PC power
“If you count up all the phones that Apple sold at the launch weekend for the iPhone six, you get about 25 times more CPU transistors than were in all the PCs on Earth in 1995.”
Benedict Evans Jul 15, 2017 ▶ 2:14 Mobile Is Eating the World, 2015
Assertion Supported
David George: Pre-iPhone consensus models underestimated Apple by 3x
“Consensus models were off for Apple's performance by a factor of three X over four years.”
David George Feb 9, 2026 ▶ 29:30 AI Markets: Deep Dive with a16z's David George
Assertion Supported
Moore: Apple's iOS widget update catalyzed viral app growth in 2022
“Lock It Widget was probably the first one to explode in, in January, and then was followed by Live In, Widgetable, a bunch of other apps that really capitalized on this kind of, not a full platform shift, but kind of a, maybe an operating shift, a system shift…”
Olivia Moore Feb 9, 2023 ▶ 18:06 The State of Apps with Olivia Moore
Assertion Supported
Apple Chose Konqueror Over Mozilla for Safari Because of Codebase Size
“And looking at that, it really just came down to Conqueror was one-tenth the size of Mozilla.”
Ken Kocienda Feb 24, 2019 ▶ 9:56 Inside the Apple Factory: Software Design in the Age of Steve Jobs
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Big four tech platforms expanded headcount 10x in a decade
“Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, as being together about 10 times the size in terms of the number of people that they were 1012 years ago.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:45 a16z Podcast | The Strategies and Tactics of Big
Assertion Supported
Harris: Negotiating mobile privacy standards with tech platforms avoided regulation
“Over the course of six months, we worked out, I think, an all too rare example of government and industry coming together to solve a problem. Short of regulation or litigation or legislation. And what we did is we came up with an understanding that would, that…”
Kamala Harris Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:02 a16z Podcast | Taking the Measure of Tech in Policy -- with Kamala Harris
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple's 900M active iOS devices rival 1.5B global PCs
“There's only one and a half billion PCs on Earth, and Apple has nine hundred million iOS devices out there.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:09 a16z Podcast | So Where Are We on the 'S-curve' for PC Devices?
Assertion Supported
Evans: MacBook Touch Bar is powered by an Apple Watch chip
“The technology underneath it is an OLED screen, and the chip That's driving it, apparently, is actually Apple Watch, basically.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:50 a16z Podcast | So Where Are We on the 'S-curve' for PC Devices?
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple has 650 million iPhone users
“Apple's got six hundred and fifty million iPhone users.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:10 a16z Podcast | So Where Are We on the 'S-curve' for PC Devices?
Assertion Supported
Chen: Apple developer APIs allow on-device neural network inferences
“So what is clear that you can do with the Apple neural network stuff is you can get trained networks, and then you can run the classifiers, make inferences is what they call it if you read the developer documentation, On device.”
Frank Chen Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:42 a16z Podcast | Apple and the Widgetification of Everything
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple OS X has roughly 80 million users
“So we have OSX, which is a platform that has about eighty million users”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:47 a16z Podcast | Apple Gets Its Music Streaming and Gives News Another Try
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple iOS has 700M to 800M active devices
“And then there's a platform with eight, seven or eight hundred million active devices, iOS.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:10 a16z Podcast | Apple Gets Its Music Streaming and Gives News Another Try
Assertion Supported
McKinnon: Apple Touch ID dramatically increased iPhone passcode adoption rates
“They've turned on passcodes and more people are, have their phones locked now than ever before because they made it easier. You didn't have to type in that code and now they have a fingerprint reader.”
Todd McKinnon Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:01 a16z Podcast | Making Security More Useable
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple retail generated 10% of total company revenue
“The Apple retail business, which until they stopped disclosing it was about 10% of Apple revenue.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:44 a16z Podcast | What the Apple Watch Is -- and Isn't
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Apple iPod lifetime sales nearly doubled the Sony Walkman
“Apparently the unit life, someone said to me, lifetime sales of the Sony Walkman were about two hundred and fifty million units. So they sell, you know, almost double, you know, the Sony Walkman.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:24 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple generated $65 billion in lifetime revenue from 400 million iPods
“They sold, what was it, four hundred million of them, and they did something like sixty-five billion dollars of revenue.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:10 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple sold 75 million iPhones, capturing 15% global market share
“Apple sold, getting on for 15% of all the phones sold on Earth in the last quarter, in the December quarter... Seventy-five million units.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 0:58 a16z Podcast | Mobile is Eating the World (and Apple is Gobbling Fastest)
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple never sees health data stored in iOS 8 repository
“So Apple is making this repository in iOS eight that stores all the health information from a watch, from any wearable that you have, anything you input into it. Any app on the device can ask for that with permission. Apple never sees it”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:05 a16z Podcast | Apple Takes on Payments and Your Wrist
Assertion Supported
Evans: iPad sales hit flatline while iPhone continues strong growth
“And the iPhone is growing quite strongly, and the iPad has been effectively flat for a year.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:18 a16z Podcast | The Micro and Macro of Mobile
Assertion Supported
Apple reorganized into a horizontal structure under Craig Federighi
“A, they'd moved from a vertical to horizontal integration organization. So you have Craig Federiga responsible for all the software, for example.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:50 a16z Podcast | Google I/O -- A Three-Hour Tour (in 30 minutes)
Assertion Supported
Evans: Apple reported 83% of iPhone 5S users use fingerprint scanner
“And they gave a number that I think it was 83% of all iPhone five S users use a fingerprint scanner,”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 3:17 a16z Podcast | The Apple WWDC 2014 Deep Dive
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: iPhone ASP is $600 compared to Android's $250 average
“They sell a phone that an average of 600 dollars, In an industry that averages about a 180, and Android averages about 250. And in the high-end space, they have, as it might be, two thirds to three quarters of the market, and Samsung has most of the rest.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:56 a16z Podcast | The Apple WWDC 2014 Deep Dive
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