The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 62 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Schmidt: Fewer than ten organizations worldwide can train Llama-scale AI models
“Yeah, I mean, I would, it would probably be in the number of ones on my hand and it probably wouldn't use all my fingers, you know. Yeah, I mean, you basically have, OpenA, Anthropic, Meta, X, Google, and then you have a few Mistral, and then Deep Seek and a c…”
Wang: AI labs will push deeper product integrations for higher margins
“I think an Anthropix launch of artifacts in Claude is like a it's like the first pin drop of this major theme of, you know all the labs are going to be pushing much deeper product integrations to be able to drive higher quality businesses.”
Amodei: Most expensive AI models in 2023 cost around $100M to train
“The most expensive models made today cost about a hundred million dollars, say plus or minus a factor of two.”
Litt: Claude was useless for research math until Opus 4.5 or 4.6
“One thing is that ChatGPD got better at math earlier. Yes. So, like, for a long time the Claude models were just, like, not useful for research math. And then I think maybe around Opus 4.5 or Opus 4.6, they, like, more or less caught up.”
Anthropic's Next Financial Disclosure Will Likely Show Re-Accelerating Revenue Growth
“And then, you know, I would hypothesize, because they've executed well, probably the next disclosure is a re-acceleration, and then there's always this kind of funny game between the frontier model companies.”
Evans: Anthropic succeeded in AI coding by focusing strategy with less capital
“And then Anthropic, with having less capital raised, said, no, we're going to focus on coding, and they got coding working. Whether that was, like, a deliberate strategy or, kind of, they stumbled into it is, you know, for other people to say, but, like, clear…”
Marc Rowan predicts a surge in tech growth and finance partnerships
“The number of partnerships I believe that are going to Sprout up, whether it is the open AI ecosystem that they're building to be able to democratize their LLM, or is the anthropic ecosystem that is being built to democratize their way of doing things. I think…”
Moore: Anthropic Monetizes Claude Exclusively Through Subscriptions
“So, like, I think Claude has been very clear that they're just gonna monetize via subscriptions, which is great for people and companies who can pay for subscriptions, but it won't be everyone.”
Adam D'Angelo: Hyperscaler market balances fast-falling prices with high R&D investment
“There's enough competition among the hyperscalers that the... As an application level company, you have choice and you have alternatives and the prices are coming down incredibly quickly. But there's also not so much competition that the hyperscalers and the, …”
Lazzarin prompts ChatGPT, Anthropic, and Grok simultaneously for medical queries
“To be honest, I'll send the same thing to ChatGPT, Anthropic, and Grok at the same time, force them to fight against each other and then end up with just kind of a list of interesting sources that I put in front of the doctor.”
Dario Amodei: Talent density beats talent mass every time
“Our general view is, you know, talent density beats talent mass every time.”
Amodei: Long context windows and search retrieval remain heavily underappreciated
“One thing that I think people are starting to realize, but I think is, is still underappreciated is the longer context and things that come along with that, that we're working on, you know, things in the direction of, you know, retrieval or search really open …”