why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Appenzeller: Intel-Nvidia partnership means AMD is 'fucked'
“I think AMD is fucked, right? I mean, they're, you're just, If your two arch nemesis suddenly team up, that's the worst possible news you can have, right? They were already struggling, right? Their cards are good, their software stack is not, right? They were …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Baker: Google's TPU makes it Nvidia's biggest AI chip competitor
“NVIDIA's biggest competitor, it's not AMD, it's not Broadcom you know, it's certainly not Marvell. It's not Intel. It's Google. And more specifically, it is Google, because Google owns the TPU chip.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: NVIDIA maintains 75% gross margins compared to AMD's 50%
“I make a 75% gross margin as NVIDIA AMD sells their GPUs for 50% gross margin”
Insight
Lisa Su: Closed tech ecosystems usually become a problem over time
“Closed walls usually end up being a problem.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lisa Su: AI hardware will diversify into specialized engines
“If you look, whether you're at the edge you know, with embedded applications industrial applications, automotive applications medical applications, or you're even at the client level in your PC or your phone, you're gonna need different types of AI, and so you…”
Opinion
Lisa Su: AI is the most important technology shift in 50 years
“I think AI is probably the most important one I'd like to say, you know, over the last 30 years, 40 years, 50 years because it It's something more than just technology. I mean, it really is, you know, AI becomes the ability for us all to become smarter, more p…”
Opinion
Lisa Su: Moore's Law continues because people find new ways to extend it
“And by the way, I'm a believer in, in, you know Moore's law has been extended so many times because people are super smart and able to come up with different ways of extending the same principle of, you know, more transistors, more capability every couple of y…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lisa Su: AI will be integrated into every product AMD builds
“And, you know, for us at AMD you know, my belief is AI is gonna be everywhere in every product that we build”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Horowitz: Nvidia's InfiniBand networking gives it a major AI advantage over AMD
“One of their biggest advantages is They have a, you know, Nvidia also owns a networking architecture called InfiniBand, and InfiniBand turns out to be, like, really, really important in AI you know, in, in terms of having the, kind of, GPUs being able to commu…”
Insight
Lisa Su: Solve 3-to-4-year customer problems rather than verbatim feature requests
“And that's where it's most beneficial is, you know, talking to our customers about, hey, like, what problems are you having? Like, what are you trying to solve? You know, two, three, four years out. And then, you know, our technologists can really come up with…”
Assertion Supported
Lisa Su: UALink and UEC prove AI competitors can unite around open standards
“The Ultra Accelerator Link and Ultra Ethernet Consortium are great examples where competitors and peers can come together and say, you know what, we're gonna adopt open standards and we're each gonna innovate on top of that, and you know, those are, you know, …”
Assertion Supported
Mo: Major chipmakers use vLLM as an internal benchmark
“And additionally, VLM also work closely with all the hardware vendors. So that means across like NVIDIA, AMD, Google, and Amazon, Intel, and a lot more, their newest chip will make sure VLM can run on them. And then a lot of cases they use VLM as a benchmark t…”
Disclosure
Lisa Su: ZT Systems acquisition adds system-level solutions to AMD
“That's what ZT Systems is, so it's kind of the third leg of our stool, if you think hardware, software, now solutions.”
Assertion Supported
Lisa Su: AMD held 1% server market share at Zen launch
“When we started in the hyperscaler market with our, you know, first generation products that you know, our Zen product portfolio, I think we were about maybe one percent share of the server market”
Insight
Lisa Su: Hardware bets take 3 to 5 years to prove out
“It, we didn't know. Like, we didn't know at the time when we were making that decision was it gonna be the right bet, but we knew that we had to make that bet, and you really don't figure that out until three to five years out, so your question about how do yo…”