The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 8 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2031
Chris Lyons: A single-person startup will build a billion-dollar business using AI
“One of our theses is that at 1.1 person will be able to build a billion dollar business with the tools that are available right now, you know.”
Chris Lyons Feb 11, 2026 ▶ 36:19 Inside The Life of Silicon Valley's First Athlete Investor | Magic Johnson
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2030
Horowitz: Andreessen Horowitz will never expand into private equity
“So there, there's nothing about what they do that would make them good at what we do. And there's nothing about what we do that would make us good at what they do. So like, I think, you know, we'll never get into that realm.”
Ben Horowitz Aug 23, 2025 ▶ 27:14 Ben Horowitz Shares the a16z Origin Story & Plans for the Future
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
Bornstein: AI developer tools will increase, not shrink, software engineering headcount
“I think the best way to think about this is simply that we're going to have more developers. I think it's very unlikely that like we're going to shrink development teams because we have amazing new tools. Like that's just kind of not how these markets have wor…”
Matt Bornstein Jul 21, 2025 ▶ 36:29 The Future of Software Development - Vibe Coding, Prompt Engineering & AI Assistants
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2029
Ben Horowitz: a16z will not back third-party regional affiliate funds
“We're not raising money for somebody who's not part of our firm, our culture, our mission, and having them go run a play. That, that, that's just not us.”
Ben Horowitz Jul 3, 2026 ▶ 27:10 Ben Horowitz on the Global Race for Tech, Power, and Influence
Assertion Open · timeframe Jan 2027
George: Only 5% of public software companies forecast over 25% growth
“Something like five percent of software and internet public companies are forecasting 25% plus next 12 months growth. So, 95% of the public market universe in software and internet is growing less than 25%.”
David George Jan 26, 2026 ▶ 45:01 The Biggest Bottlenecks For AI: Energy & Cooling
Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Horowitz: Andreessen Horowitz's presence in D.C. is permanent
“And that means having an office in DC. It means having, you know, dedicated people and so forth. And, you know, yeah, that's never gonna change.”
Ben Horowitz Apr 23, 2025 ▶ 17:19 Ben Horowitz on Leadership and Culture
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Mar 2023
Bootstrapped family business RockAuto entered the top 10 of 2023 Marketplace 100
“We had six newcomers in the top 20 this year, and we had one newcomer actually in the top 10, which is called Rock Auto. It's a bootstrapped Family business around selling car parts, which is so exciting to see.”
Olivia Moore Mar 23, 2023 ▶ 7:51 The Marketplace 100: A Glimpse Into the Future of Commerce
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Dec 2018
Instacart Launched by Fulfilling Orders Without Formal Grocer Partnerships
“And the modern example of this, of course, is is one of our portfolio companies, Instacart, where You know, today the company has awesome deep relationships with the nation's top grocers. But when the company first started they built an app. They had an amazin…”
Andrew Chen Dec 8, 2018 ▶ 13:22 What's Next in Consumer Startups?
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