Carl Pope, former executive director of the Sierra Club, discusses urban land use and city planning on the a16z Podcast.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pope: Future cities will restrict human drivers to dedicated lanes
“And at that point, we will have to take the right to drive away from people, unless they're in dedicated, you can drive it lanes. We now have bike lanes which are dedicated and special. You can drive your own vehicle lanes are going to become dedicated and spe…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pope: Autonomous vehicles will hollow out inner-ring suburbs
“Then all of a sudden, a huge amount of urban real estate, downtown central city real estate opens up. And I think what it does is it sucks both residential and business activity away from the inner ring of suburbs. Those hollow out, and then we have the challe…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Pope: The autonomous vehicle transition could be complete by 2025
“So it might start a little later than the optimists think. Might start in 2022, but it might be over by 2025.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pope: Driving your own car will become an expensive luxury option
“And once you start selling autonomous cars in large numbers, people will not buy cars that have to be driven. Being able to drive your own car is going to become a very expensive option. It's going to be like leather seats, but much more expensive.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Pope: At 70% AV adoption, pedestrians will cross streets without looking
“We'll reach a tipping point when, say, 70% of the vehicles on the road are being driven by a robot which, like a horse, will not run someone down. And at that point, pedestrians are going to start crossing streets the way they did in 1900, without looking and …”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Pope: Driving is the largest U.S. profession and will be automated away
“We're going to lose the largest profession in the United States, which is driver.”