The Calls

⏳ Open 📼 The record

Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.

2held up → 1didn’t hold up → 0partly held up →
67%of resolved predictions held up
Everyone Marc Andreessen (14)Benedict Evans (13)David George (9)Ben Horowitz (8)Jared Isaacman (7)Dylan Patel (6)Alex Rampell (6)Frank Chen (5)Gavin Baker (4)Chris Dixon (4)Vijay Pande (3)Qasar Younis (3)
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The record (3) every resolved claim →

Prediction Held up
Patel: OpenAI will soon monetize free users via shopping affiliate fees
“And OpenAI makes nothing off of that. But they very, they really, really will soon, right? And partially that's because Amazon blocks chat, but like, you know, there's a way to make money from shopping decisions, whether it's Booking flights or looking for ite…”
Dylan Patel Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 6:55 Dylan Patel on GPT-5’s Router Moment, GPUs vs TPUs, Monetization
Prediction Held up
Patel: AWS year-over-year revenue growth will re-accelerate above 20%
“This is the lowest AWS revenue growth will be on a year-to-year basis. For at least the next year, right? And it's re-accelerating to north of 20% again because of all these massive data centers they have online with Tranium and GPUs, right?”
Dylan Patel Sep 22, 2025 ▶ 59:32 Dylan Patel on the AI Chip Race - NVIDIA, Intel & the US Government vs. China
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Patel: NVIDIA will hold over $100B in cash by late 2025
“The cash on their balance sheet keeps growing, and they're gonna have north of a hundred billion dollars of cash on their balance sheet by the end of this year, I think.”
Dylan Patel Aug 18, 2025 ▶ 57:56 Dylan Patel on GPT-5’s Router Moment, GPUs vs TPUs, Monetization
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