The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Marc Andreessen (14)Benedict Evans (13)David George (9)Ben Horowitz (8)Jared Isaacman (7)Dylan Patel (6)Alex Rampell (6)Frank Chen (5)Gavin Baker (4)Chris Dixon (4)Vijay Pande (3)Qasar Younis (3)
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The record (32) every resolved claim →
Evans: On-device AI models will fail as capability gains outpace compression
“Will we have small models running on devices? No, because the small models, the capabilities are moving too fast for the small models to shrink the small model onto the device.”
Evans predicts global smartphone ownership will double to 5 billion
“About two and a half billion people have smartphones, and that will go to five billion smartphones.”
Evans: Consumers will soon pay Apple $100 a month for subscriptions
“You could probably, pretty soon you'll be able to pay Apple a hundred dollars a month in subscriptions.”
Evans: Rollable TVs will hit the consumer market by 2022
“In two and three years time, you will be able to buy something that's three foot long. You put it on a shelf. When you want to watch TV, you press a button and a TV is there five seconds later.”
Evans: Smartphones will eat mass-market virtual reality
“Well, I think the basic story here is smartphones eat VR.”
Evans: Apple and Facebook will build full-stack VR while Google commoditizes hardware
“You'll have Apple and Facebook trying to do the full stack, and you'll have Google saying, well, we're going to provide the hard bit, and everything else will be a commodity around it.”
Evans: Global iOS and Android devices will reach five billion
“There's one and a half billion PCs on Earth. There's three billion iOS and Android devices on Earth. We'll go to five billion.”
Evans: Over four billion adults globally will own smartphones by 2020
“That means that by 20 20 of about seven billion people on earth and a bit over five billion adults, over four billion will have a mobile phone, and almost all of those will have converted to a smartphone”
Evans: Smartphones will dominate VR hardware within five years
“On like a five-year view, it seems to me that this is all going to be about smartphones, because just Moore's law will drive this, and the graphics and the sensors will get there”
Benedict Evans: Global active smartphones will reach 5 to 6 billion
“Almost all of those will become smartphones in the next couple of years, or well over a billion are now, and so we'll go to two billion smartphones if you add in tablets, maybe two and a half, as opposed to three hundred million PCs, And we'll go to five to si…”
Evans: Wintel Platform Share Will Decline to 10% of Computing Market
“The Wintel ecosystem now, as a percentage of total computing, so including tablets and smartphones and everything else, is now sort of 15% of unit sales, and it's going to go down, it's going to go maybe not 10%, but you know, it may go down to 10%”
Evans predicts Apple VR and cars are two to four years away.
“The two big things that are next for Apple are on the one hand VR, or potentially AR, and then on the other hand cars. But just from looking at the state of the technology, but those are both basically two, three, four years away.”
Evans: Early autonomous vehicles will navigate independently, not in city meshes
“The first self-driving car is not going to be part of a mesh of every car in the city. You're going to get into the car and say, I want to go here, and it will have to work out how to get there.”
Evans predicts global hardware will settle at 4 to 5 billion smartphones
“There's probably two billion smartphones on earth today, maybe two and a half billion, and the great majority of those mobile phones will convert. And so we'll end up with something like one and a half billion PCs and four to five billion smartphones and those…”
Evans predicts TVs will become secondary display screens controlled by smartphones
“For the vast majority of people, the TV will be done whilst for the smartphone. Rather than, so it won't be a box that's plugged into your TV that runs your whole digital experience.”
Evans: The next billion internet users will be driven entirely by smartphones
“And then the next few years, we'll add another billion and all of that growth will be driven by smartphones.”
Evans: Most Sub-Saharan Africans will gain 3G coverage within years
“Even in Sub-Saharan Africa, 70% of the population is now under cellular coverage, and in the next few years, most of those people will get three G coverage as well.”
Evans: Global smartphone adoption will reach 4 billion devices
“And we'll go to four billion. There's about three and a half to four billion people on Earth today who have a mobile phone. There's a lot more SIM cards, but there's three and a half to four billion people on Earth today who have a mobile phone. And that will …”
Evans: 4 to 4.5 billion adults globally will be online
“What's actually happening is that there are five billion adults on Earth, and four to four and a half billion of them will be online, and basically the only people who are not online are the people who are not economically active or who are basically being sho…”
Evans: Most sub-Saharan African cell coverage will be 3G within five years
“Even in sub-Saharan Africa, 70% of the population is under cellular coverage, and most of that will get three G in the next five years, and 40% of the population of sub-Saharan Africa has a cellular phone today.”
Evans predicts one billion people will first experience the internet via smartphones
“There's going to be a billion people whose first experience of the internet, or the first experience of owning a device that can use the internet, is going to be a smartphone.”
Evans predicts active iOS and Android devices will reach four billion globally
“And we'll go to four billion iOS and Android.”
Benedict Evans: Global smartphone adoption will reach three billion units
“There are about one and a half billion smartphones on earth now, and we'll go up to maybe three billion, and they'll be everywhere.”
Evans predicts a standalone LTE Apple Watch is two years away.
“And so potentially at the point that the watch gets LTE, then you can You go out all day with the AirPods and the watch and Siri. That feels like that's a couple of years away, maybe.”
Evans: iOS split-screen multitasking will not reignite iPad sales growth
“It's not going to, you know, suddenly reignite sales of iPad growth sales growth, but, you know, it may change what it means to use it a bit.”
Remaining feature phone market will convert to smart OSs in 3-4 years
“And the remaining half or thereabouts of the phone market will convert over the next three or four years to phones running smart OSs or there'll be a kind of a residue of five or 10% of people who really can't afford them.”
Evans: Apple will capture the top 15% of global mobile users
“Apple's gonna have the top 15% 10 to 15% of all the mobile phone users on earth, and Android will have most of the rest.”
Evans predicts Amazon will reach 600,000 employees by end of 2017
“Amazon will probably end this year with about 600,000 people.”
Evans: Global LCD screen sales will reach 4B square feet in 2014
“The global sales of LCD screens this year will be about four billion square foot. So about a square, almost a square foot of screen will be sold this year for every adult on earth, and that number keeps going up.”
Active Android devices will reach 2-3B; iOS will reach 700-900M
“And, you know, as things play out with the current dynamics, which aren't really going to change in the next two or three years, we will end up with seven, eight, nine hundred million iOS devices in use on Earth. It's probably about 500 now. And we'll end up w…”