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Jan 2, 2019 · 19m · a16z

a16z Podcast | The Future Of Television

Benedict Evans · 11m spoken Zal Bilimoria · 4m spoken Michael Copeland · 1m spoken
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In this episode of the a16z Podcast, host Michael Copeland and guests Benedict Evans and Zal Bilimoria analyze the future of television, exploring how tech platforms, original streaming content, evolving consumer viewing habits, and data-driven user experience design are disrupting traditional media distribution.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 1.8 Guest teaching 3.3 Guest disagreement 2.3 The host pushing back 1.0
05100:0010:002:17–6:42 · The host as informed peer 2/10 Shifting Viewing Models, Hit Content, & Binge Watching Host Michael Copeland acts as a moderator, kicking off the discussion about defining television and setting up Zal Bilimoria and Benedict Evans. The guests collaboratively discuss the shift to mobile, console streaming data, and the high cost of original hit content like House of Cards.6:42–12:06 · The host as informed peer 2/10 The Economics of Content: Kerosene Analogy & Tech vs Media Benedict Evans delivers a detailed breakdown comparing media content spending to orbital mechanics and kerosene fuel, arguing tech companies must spend tens of billions to compete with media giants. Host Copeland provides a brief reframe at the end, asking if the future of TV is just the past.12:06–16:48 · The host as informed peer 2/10 Distribution Platforms, Ecosystem Battles, & Technical Protocols The guests debate distribution strategies, ecosystem battles, and whether services like Aereo constitute legitimate business models or temporary regulatory hacks. Host Copeland facilitates and synthesizes Benedict's viewpoint regarding the search for the right hardware experience.16:48–19:26 · The host as informed peer 1/10 Content Unbundling, Recommendation Algorithms, & Conclusion Zal Bilimoria shares internal Netflix engagement metrics like subscriber retention and streaming hours driving UI features such as the continue watching row. Host Copeland closes the episode with light concluding remarks.2:17–6:42 · Guest teaching 3/10 Shifting Viewing Models, Hit Content, & Binge Watching Host Michael Copeland acts as a moderator, kicking off the discussion about defining television and setting up Zal Bilimoria and Benedict Evans. The guests collaboratively discuss the shift to mobile, console streaming data, and the high cost of original hit content like House of Cards.6:42–12:06 · Guest teaching 4/10 The Economics of Content: Kerosene Analogy & Tech vs Media Benedict Evans delivers a detailed breakdown comparing media content spending to orbital mechanics and kerosene fuel, arguing tech companies must spend tens of billions to compete with media giants. Host Copeland provides a brief reframe at the end, asking if the future of TV is just the past.12:06–16:48 · Guest teaching 3/10 Distribution Platforms, Ecosystem Battles, & Technical Protocols The guests debate distribution strategies, ecosystem battles, and whether services like Aereo constitute legitimate business models or temporary regulatory hacks. Host Copeland facilitates and synthesizes Benedict's viewpoint regarding the search for the right hardware experience.16:48–19:26 · Guest teaching 3/10 Content Unbundling, Recommendation Algorithms, & Conclusion Zal Bilimoria shares internal Netflix engagement metrics like subscriber retention and streaming hours driving UI features such as the continue watching row. Host Copeland closes the episode with light concluding remarks.2:17–6:42 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Shifting Viewing Models, Hit Content, & Binge Watching Host Michael Copeland acts as a moderator, kicking off the discussion about defining television and setting up Zal Bilimoria and Benedict Evans. The guests collaboratively discuss the shift to mobile, console streaming data, and the high cost of original hit content like House of Cards.6:42–12:06 · Guest disagreement 3/10 The Economics of Content: Kerosene Analogy & Tech vs Media Benedict Evans delivers a detailed breakdown comparing media content spending to orbital mechanics and kerosene fuel, arguing tech companies must spend tens of billions to compete with media giants. Host Copeland provides a brief reframe at the end, asking if the future of TV is just the past.12:06–16:48 · Guest disagreement 3/10 Distribution Platforms, Ecosystem Battles, & Technical Protocols The guests debate distribution strategies, ecosystem battles, and whether services like Aereo constitute legitimate business models or temporary regulatory hacks. Host Copeland facilitates and synthesizes Benedict's viewpoint regarding the search for the right hardware experience.16:48–19:26 · Guest disagreement 1/10 Content Unbundling, Recommendation Algorithms, & Conclusion Zal Bilimoria shares internal Netflix engagement metrics like subscriber retention and streaming hours driving UI features such as the continue watching row. Host Copeland closes the episode with light concluding remarks.2:17–6:42 · The host pushing back 1/10 Shifting Viewing Models, Hit Content, & Binge Watching Host Michael Copeland acts as a moderator, kicking off the discussion about defining television and setting up Zal Bilimoria and Benedict Evans. The guests collaboratively discuss the shift to mobile, console streaming data, and the high cost of original hit content like House of Cards.6:42–12:06 · The host pushing back 2/10 The Economics of Content: Kerosene Analogy & Tech vs Media Benedict Evans delivers a detailed breakdown comparing media content spending to orbital mechanics and kerosene fuel, arguing tech companies must spend tens of billions to compete with media giants. Host Copeland provides a brief reframe at the end, asking if the future of TV is just the past.12:06–16:48 · The host pushing back 1/10 Distribution Platforms, Ecosystem Battles, & Technical Protocols The guests debate distribution strategies, ecosystem battles, and whether services like Aereo constitute legitimate business models or temporary regulatory hacks. Host Copeland facilitates and synthesizes Benedict's viewpoint regarding the search for the right hardware experience.16:48–19:26 · The host pushing back 0/10 Content Unbundling, Recommendation Algorithms, & Conclusion Zal Bilimoria shares internal Netflix engagement metrics like subscriber retention and streaming hours driving UI features such as the continue watching row. Host Copeland closes the episode with light concluding remarks.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 14:09 Challenging Regulatory Hacks

Benedict Evans pushes back on Zal Bilimoria's defense of software regulatory hacks, distinguishing between solving real underlying economic inefficiencies and merely exploiting temporary pricing rules.

 Hardest push from the host ▶ 12:02 Questioning TV's Future vs Past

Host Michael Copeland directly challenges the guest narrative by asking whether their vision for the future of television is simply identical to traditional media models.

 Biggest teaching moment ▶ 8:24 The Orbital Mechanics of TV Budgeting

Benedict Evans uses an elaborate rocket science metaphor to educate on media economics, illustrating why technology companies cannot bypass massive content expenditure.

 The host holds their own ▶ 16:36 Summarizing the Device Experience Gap

Host Michael Copeland demonstrates sharp synthesis by cutting through technical detail to summarize Benedict's core argument about consumer adoption and device friction.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
Shifting Viewing Models, Hit Content, & Binge Watching 2321 Host Michael Copeland acts as a moderator, kicking off the discussion about defining television and setting up Zal Bilimoria and Benedict Evans. The guests collaboratively discuss the shift to mobile, console streaming data, and the high cost of original hit content like House of Cards.
The Economics of Content: Kerosene Analogy & Tech vs Media 2432 Benedict Evans delivers a detailed breakdown comparing media content spending to orbital mechanics and kerosene fuel, arguing tech companies must spend tens of billions to compete with media giants. Host Copeland provides a brief reframe at the end, asking if the future of TV is just the past.
Distribution Platforms, Ecosystem Battles, & Technical Protocols 2331 The guests debate distribution strategies, ecosystem battles, and whether services like Aereo constitute legitimate business models or temporary regulatory hacks. Host Copeland facilitates and synthesizes Benedict's viewpoint regarding the search for the right hardware experience.
Content Unbundling, Recommendation Algorithms, & Conclusion 1310 Zal Bilimoria shares internal Netflix engagement metrics like subscriber retention and streaming hours driving UI features such as the continue watching row. Host Copeland closes the episode with light concluding remarks.

Statements from this episode (9)

Assertion Contradicted
Bilimoria: Game consoles drive over 60% of Netflix streaming hours
“I think more than 60% of streaming hours on Netflix are coming from the major game consoles.”
Zal Bilimoria Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 2:58
Assertion Partly supported
Bilimoria: Netflix spent over $100M for two seasons of House of Cards
“The hits are really starting to drive, I think, Netflix's business, which is why they realized that, They can spend a hundred million dollars to actually fund a total of 26 episodes across two seasons for House of Cards. Actually, it's probably much more than …”
Zal Bilimoria Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 4:13
Insight
Evans: Content and monetization models—not tech—are TV's true lock
“There's always this sort of misperception that you can turn up with technology and disrupt it, but actually the point of Netflix and the reason why the existing model is so strong is it's actually, no, it's the content. That's the lock on all of this stuff, an…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 5:54
Insight
Evans: Winning in television requires massive spending, not superior tech
“You can't turn up with a better rocket. You just have to, actually, all you have to do is turn up with an enormous tank full of kerosene. You have to turn up with an awful lot of money.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 9:04
Opinion
Evans: Netflix is fundamentally a content business, not a tech company
“Netflix is kind of a cable channel. Now, this is in the content business that happens to use technology to do interesting and new and disruptive ways to things.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 10:41
Insight
Evans: TV has replaced music as Big Tech's ecosystem battleground
“Music was an ecosystem battleground, and it's turned into a checkbox commodity feature that you throw into any new product as like something you have to have. You know, you're launching a phone, you're launching this, you're launching, you've got to have a pho…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 12:20
Insight
Evans: Amazon treats TV content and devices as e-commerce loss leaders
“In the US, that's not really the point at all. You know, it's just Amazon, Amazon video, Netflix video, whatever, get them on the device and get them to buy groceries from us, get them to buy diapers from us, get them to buy headphones from us, and the TV is t…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 13:14
Assertion Supported
Evans: BBC iPlayer peak streaming lags traditional TV 750K to 25M
“Peak viewing for iPlayer which is basically all the BBC's content is, like, 750,000 streams, and peak TV viewing is, like, twenty-five million, and the peak, the TV viewing isn't going down, and the iPlay viewing is, well, it's kind of going up a bit, but it a…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 15:23
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Bilimoria: Streaming hours was the metric most correlated with Netflix retention
“There was two metrics at Netflix that every product manager was geared toward. It's subscriber retention and streaming hours. The most highly correlated variable to subscriber attention was streaming hours, right?”
Zal Bilimoria Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 18:23
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