Jan 2, 2019 · 27m · a16z
a16z Podcast | When Software Eats Cars
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
Tech industry analyst Benedict Evans and host Michael Copeland discuss how electric powertrains, autonomous navigation, and on-demand software networks are rearchitecting the global automotive industry, urban planning, and traditional vehicle ownership models.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 2.7 Guest teaching 6.6 Guest disagreement 1.9 The host pushing back 1.9
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 19:08 Dismissing driver enthusiasm with horse analogy
The guest curtly rejects the host premise that emotional driver attachment will block software adoption by comparing auto enthusiasts to horse lovers after the invention of cars.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 19:08 Challenging pure automation with driver cultureThe host actively pushes back on the guest thesis of full automation by arguing that people love driving, the sound, and the visceral feel of internal combustion engines.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 12:58 Reframing autonomous bus impactThe guest directly corrects the host assumption about government-owned autonomous buses, demonstrating that eliminating driver costs does not solve outer-suburban transit friction.
The host holds their own ▶ 16:29 Citing German automaker mapping dealThe host demonstrates explicit industry knowledge by bringing up the German automotive consortium acquisition of Nokia mapping business to validate the guest mapping argument.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electric Vehicles and Simplified Manufacturing Supply Chains | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | The host prompts the guest regarding electric car value chains, allowing the guest to deliver an educational overview on how eliminating internal combustion engines simplifies manufacturing supply chains. | |
| Autonomous Vehicles and Urban Real Estate Transformation | 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | The guest details how autonomous fleets alter city real estate and car purchasing behavior, while the host provides basic clarifying questions about ownership structures. | |
| Interior Car Redesign and Societal Second-Order Effects | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | The guest outlines second-order societal impacts of autonomous vehicles, with the host offering light conversational commentary and jokes. | |
| Public Transit, Packet-Switched Roads, and Low-Income Mobility | 3 | 7 | 3 | 2 | When the host suggests public transit fleets could solve mobility issues, the guest reframes the premise by pointing out that replacing bus drivers does not fundamentally alter urban transit dynamics. | |
| Software Architecture, Vehicle Routing, and Strategic Mapping | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | The host demonstrates prior knowledge by citing a recent news event where German automakers acquired Nokia mapping unit, which the guest incorporates into his explanation of strategic routing. | |
| Overclocking Vehicles, Monetization, and Cultural Driver Resistance | 3 | 6 | 4 | 5 | The host pushes back against pure software automation by raising cultural attachment to driving and combustion engines, which the guest counters by comparing car enthusiasts to historical horse lovers. | |
| Timeline Expectations and Industry Scale Comparison | 3 | 7 | 1 | 1 | The guest walks through macro industry scale comparisons between tech giant revenues and global auto markets, with the host maintaining a listening role. |
Statements from this episode (17)
Evans: In-car software will shift from automakers to smartphone ecosystems
“Software in the car, and how that becomes something that isn't made by the car company anymore, perhaps, and becomes something that gets into the smartphone ecosystem.”
Evans: Simplified EV manufacturing will lower entry barriers for tech companies
“And so a little bit like what happened with PCs or smartphones 10 years and 20 years ago you move to a point that it may be easier for people who are not in the car business to be in the car business, because the amount of stuff that you have to make, how that…”
Evans: Self-driving cars will reshape urban real estate and city layouts
“What self-driving does is it transforms the layout of the city because things like parking and gas stations and strip malls and the kind of the whole layout of the retail and commercial real estate starts to change because it's all built around parking as much…”
Evans: Self-driving car insurance will cost half as much due to safety
“And those cars don't have a driver, and the insurance probably costs half as much because self-driving cars don't have accidents in the same way, because the error rate will be lower, and so the price of those self-driving, of those on-demand services will be …”
Evans: Autonomous cars will shrink personal vehicle ownership significantly
“The point is that self-driving cars, therefore, make on-demand services much, much, much bigger, and they tend to result, therefore, in many fewer people owning a car.”
Evans: Autonomous vehicle fleets will be bought like corporate IT hardware
“They're not getting chosen based on how nice it feels when you slam the door and, you know, the diamond cut chamfered edges. They're getting bought in the same way that Hertz buys cars, and they're getting bought in the same way that a big company buys PCs. Th…”
Evans: B2B fleet purchasing of autonomous cars neutralizes Apple's consumer advantage
“So and so that becomes interesting for Apple and potentially for Tesla, because it means that, you know, if the drivers, if the people riding around are not the people choosing these things, then maybe Apple's strengths don't really get to come into play becau…”
Evans: Autonomous vehicles will eliminate the need for traffic stoplights
“If you had no manually driven cars on the road, then you don't need stoplights anymore, and the cars can just stream through all the junctions, snag in before and behind each other.”
Evans: Autonomous vehicles will reduce traditional radio listenership
“If half of all radio listening is happening when people are driving, well, if you could be doing other things, maybe you might not listen”
Evans: Self-driving buses will not be as transformative as self-driving cars
“I don't think a self-driving bus is, is, is kind of transformative in the way the self-driving car is, because there's always got to, you know, that's, you know, the space taken up by the driver isn't really the point.”
Evans: Autonomous vehicles will travel in 150 mph highway pelotons
“You could start having pelotons of cars. So you've got 15 cars all going down the highway two feet behind each other at a 150 miles an hour.”
Evans: Early autonomous vehicles will navigate independently, not in city meshes
“The first self-driving car is not going to be part of a mesh of every car in the city. You're going to get into the car and say, I want to go here, and it will have to work out how to get there.”
Evans: Electric vehicles transform vehicle performance upgrades from hardware into software
“When a car becomes electric, it becomes software, and so your upgrades, you know, instead of paying an extra 5000 dollars for the sports gearbox, there is no gearbox.”
Evans: The technology for fully self-driving cars does not exist
“Making a self-driving car, we do not yet have the technology to make self-driving cars.”
Evans: Global car and telecom revenues each total $1.2 trillion annually
“Coincidentally, mobile network operators revenue is about 1.2 trillion dollars as well. So, cars and mobile networks are about the same size, but much bigger than anything in tech.”
Evans: Autonomous and electric tech will spawn new vehicle categories
“There will be new vehicles created in the same way that, like, the people carrier has been created in our lifetime, or, you know, the pickup truck became this mass-market consumer product in our lifetimes. There will be new types of car that get created.”