Jan 2, 2019 · 26m · a16z

a16z Podcast | Innovation vs. Invention at Google I/O

Steven Sinofsky · 9m spoken Benedict Evans · 9m spoken Kyle Russell · 3m spoken Connie Chan · 2m spoken
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In this episode of the a16z Podcast, industry experts Stephen Sinofsky, Benedict Evans, and Connie Chan join host Kyle Russell to analyze Google I/O's key product announcements and explore Google's underlying strategy around artificial intelligence, messaging, Android Instant Apps, and mobile virtual reality. The panel highlights how Google is positioning AI and horizontal platforms as the defining foundation for the next generation of computing.

How this conversation actually went

Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →

The host as informed peer 3.4 Guest teaching 5.6 Guest disagreement 3.6 The host pushing back 2.4
05100:0010:0020:000:22–7:10 · The host as informed peer 3/10 Innovation vs. Invention and Google's AI Vision Host Kyle Russell sets up the discussion by bringing up Twitter cynics who claim Google announced nothing new. Steven Sinofsky and Benedict Evans reframe this premise, giving a masterclass on how platform innovation differs from pure invention.7:10–10:59 · The host as informed peer 3/10 Breakdown of Key Announcements: Strategy vs. Tactics Kyle lists the product announcements and mentions industry buzzwords like bots. Benedict Evans playfully interjects that bots are outdated and breaks down Google's tactical app moves versus its core AI platform strategy.10:59–13:47 · The host as informed peer 3/10 The Fragmented Future of Messaging Applications When Kyle asks whether the Allo messaging app will be successful, Benedict bluntly cuts in with 'I almost don't care', reframing individual app success as secondary to the overall data platform.13:47–20:51 · The host as informed peer 4/10 Instant Apps and Frictionless Mobile Experiences Kyle attempts to group Instant Apps away from the core AI strategy, prompting guests to jump in and highlight its massive technical impact. Kyle defends his thesis by clarifying he was separating core search from OS runtime changes.20:51–26:07 · The host as informed peer 4/10 Google Daydream and the Future of Mobile VR Ecosystems Kyle introduces Google Daydream VR, contrasting Cardboard with higher-end hardware. He demonstrates domain knowledge by asking Connie Chan specifically about the impact of Android VR integration on Chinese OEMs.0:22–7:10 · Guest teaching 5/10 Innovation vs. Invention and Google's AI Vision Host Kyle Russell sets up the discussion by bringing up Twitter cynics who claim Google announced nothing new. Steven Sinofsky and Benedict Evans reframe this premise, giving a masterclass on how platform innovation differs from pure invention.7:10–10:59 · Guest teaching 6/10 Breakdown of Key Announcements: Strategy vs. Tactics Kyle lists the product announcements and mentions industry buzzwords like bots. Benedict Evans playfully interjects that bots are outdated and breaks down Google's tactical app moves versus its core AI platform strategy.10:59–13:47 · Guest teaching 6/10 The Fragmented Future of Messaging Applications When Kyle asks whether the Allo messaging app will be successful, Benedict bluntly cuts in with 'I almost don't care', reframing individual app success as secondary to the overall data platform.13:47–20:51 · Guest teaching 6/10 Instant Apps and Frictionless Mobile Experiences Kyle attempts to group Instant Apps away from the core AI strategy, prompting guests to jump in and highlight its massive technical impact. Kyle defends his thesis by clarifying he was separating core search from OS runtime changes.20:51–26:07 · Guest teaching 5/10 Google Daydream and the Future of Mobile VR Ecosystems Kyle introduces Google Daydream VR, contrasting Cardboard with higher-end hardware. He demonstrates domain knowledge by asking Connie Chan specifically about the impact of Android VR integration on Chinese OEMs.0:22–7:10 · Guest disagreement 3/10 Innovation vs. Invention and Google's AI Vision Host Kyle Russell sets up the discussion by bringing up Twitter cynics who claim Google announced nothing new. Steven Sinofsky and Benedict Evans reframe this premise, giving a masterclass on how platform innovation differs from pure invention.7:10–10:59 · Guest disagreement 4/10 Breakdown of Key Announcements: Strategy vs. Tactics Kyle lists the product announcements and mentions industry buzzwords like bots. Benedict Evans playfully interjects that bots are outdated and breaks down Google's tactical app moves versus its core AI platform strategy.10:59–13:47 · Guest disagreement 5/10 The Fragmented Future of Messaging Applications When Kyle asks whether the Allo messaging app will be successful, Benedict bluntly cuts in with 'I almost don't care', reframing individual app success as secondary to the overall data platform.13:47–20:51 · Guest disagreement 4/10 Instant Apps and Frictionless Mobile Experiences Kyle attempts to group Instant Apps away from the core AI strategy, prompting guests to jump in and highlight its massive technical impact. Kyle defends his thesis by clarifying he was separating core search from OS runtime changes.20:51–26:07 · Guest disagreement 2/10 Google Daydream and the Future of Mobile VR Ecosystems Kyle introduces Google Daydream VR, contrasting Cardboard with higher-end hardware. He demonstrates domain knowledge by asking Connie Chan specifically about the impact of Android VR integration on Chinese OEMs.0:22–7:10 · The host pushing back 2/10 Innovation vs. Invention and Google's AI Vision Host Kyle Russell sets up the discussion by bringing up Twitter cynics who claim Google announced nothing new. Steven Sinofsky and Benedict Evans reframe this premise, giving a masterclass on how platform innovation differs from pure invention.7:10–10:59 · The host pushing back 2/10 Breakdown of Key Announcements: Strategy vs. Tactics Kyle lists the product announcements and mentions industry buzzwords like bots. Benedict Evans playfully interjects that bots are outdated and breaks down Google's tactical app moves versus its core AI platform strategy.10:59–13:47 · The host pushing back 3/10 The Fragmented Future of Messaging Applications When Kyle asks whether the Allo messaging app will be successful, Benedict bluntly cuts in with 'I almost don't care', reframing individual app success as secondary to the overall data platform.13:47–20:51 · The host pushing back 4/10 Instant Apps and Frictionless Mobile Experiences Kyle attempts to group Instant Apps away from the core AI strategy, prompting guests to jump in and highlight its massive technical impact. Kyle defends his thesis by clarifying he was separating core search from OS runtime changes.20:51–26:07 · The host pushing back 1/10 Google Daydream and the Future of Mobile VR Ecosystems Kyle introduces Google Daydream VR, contrasting Cardboard with higher-end hardware. He demonstrates domain knowledge by asking Connie Chan specifically about the impact of Android VR integration on Chinese OEMs.

speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)

0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%0:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%3:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%6:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%9:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%12:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%15:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%18:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%21:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%24:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%24:00 · the host 0% · guest 100%
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 11:07 Benedict rejects host premise on Allo

When Kyle asks if Allo will succeed despite past missteps, Benedict bluntly interrupts with 'I almost don't care', dismissing the host's premise that standalone app metrics matter.

Hardest push from the host ▶ 14:16 Kyle clarifies distinction between search and runtime strategy

After the guests push back that Instant Apps is a huge announcement, Kyle holds his ground to clarify that he was categorizing it separately from search-based AI features.

Biggest teaching moment ▶ 0:50 Sinofsky's breakdown of platform evolution

Steven Sinofsky corrects the cynical commentary brought up by the host, providing a deep explanation of how 90% of innovation consists of incremental platform improvements.

The host holds their own ▶ 22:58 Kyle's targeted China OEM query

Kyle demonstrates strong industry context regarding Android's open ecosystem and prompts Connie Chan on how Daydream will impact regional competition in China.

the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
ChapterTopicThe host as informed peerGuest teachingGuest disagreementThe host pushing backWhy
Innovation vs. Invention and Google's AI Vision 3532 Host Kyle Russell sets up the discussion by bringing up Twitter cynics who claim Google announced nothing new. Steven Sinofsky and Benedict Evans reframe this premise, giving a masterclass on how platform innovation differs from pure invention.
Breakdown of Key Announcements: Strategy vs. Tactics 3642 Kyle lists the product announcements and mentions industry buzzwords like bots. Benedict Evans playfully interjects that bots are outdated and breaks down Google's tactical app moves versus its core AI platform strategy.
The Fragmented Future of Messaging Applications 3653 When Kyle asks whether the Allo messaging app will be successful, Benedict bluntly cuts in with 'I almost don't care', reframing individual app success as secondary to the overall data platform.
Instant Apps and Frictionless Mobile Experiences 4644 Kyle attempts to group Instant Apps away from the core AI strategy, prompting guests to jump in and highlight its massive technical impact. Kyle defends his thesis by clarifying he was separating core search from OS runtime changes.
Google Daydream and the Future of Mobile VR Ecosystems 4521 Kyle introduces Google Daydream VR, contrasting Cardboard with higher-end hardware. He demonstrates domain knowledge by asking Connie Chan specifically about the impact of Android VR integration on Chinese OEMs.

Statements from this episode (11)

Insight
Sinofsky: Most product innovations are 90% iterations on existing concepts
“Most new things are, like, 90% old stuff, like, with a slightly different perspective that comes from how you think about the collection of things, your own expertise, your own experiences”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 1:19
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chan: Google's AI launch will spawn viral Tumblr blogs of misinterpretations
“I think that when it does launch, there will be use cases where it goes wrong. Like you can just imagine the photos that they interpret Incorrectly, occasionally, or the suggested phrase that just, you can just imagine a whole Tumblr being created around this.”
Connie Chan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 6:00
Disclosure
Sinofsky: Microsoft used 'stupid computer trick' bug tags for AI glitches
“We had a kind of bug that you could open up with the descriptor stupid computer trick, which was like, the algorithm went nuts.”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 7:03
Opinion
Evans: Google's Allo App Is Housekeeping, Not Strategy
“And so you look at the Google messaging app, Allo, it's like, okay, Hangouts was a bit of a mess. And it was a bit fragmented and didn't do anything that kind of modern messaging apps do. Okay. So let's just kind of reset that and we'll make a new app and we'l…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 8:19
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chan: A new messaging app can still gain significant traction in US
“In the States, there's still a chance for a new messaging app to get significant uptake.”
Connie Chan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:55
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sinofsky: Messaging apps will defragment into regional leaders, not one winner
“Not only a chance, it's, I would just go out on a limb and say, it's absolutely certain that there's going to be a defragmentation of like just the app called messaging. And that's again, back to the whole innovation thing. I mean, we're in this very highly fr…”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 11:59
Insight
Chan: Google Instant Apps mirrors WeChat's strategy of eliminating user friction
“What excites me about instant apps is it really does eliminate friction for the end consumer, and it also reflects to me that Google understands something that WeChat has known for years, and it's critical to the success of official accounts on WeChat, which i…”
Connie Chan Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 17:44
Insight
Evans: Mobile innovation has permanently shattered the monolithic web browser paradigm
“We had 20 years of the web browser mouse keyboard, and that was like the monolith for how the internet worked. And now we've broken that apart, and we've got all these different shards all kind of floating around and landing in different places and being juggl…”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 20:25
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Evans: Smartphones will eat mass-market virtual reality
“Well, I think the basic story here is smartphones eat VR.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 21:42
Prediction Held up
Sinofsky: Android OEMs will launch dozens of VR headsets by 2017
“Fast forward this, 1218 months, and you could see the reviews and the columns, and it's going to be the Samsung VR kit, the Xiaomi VR kit, and just like 12 different ones that are like the same but different, and people are going to evaluate those, and then th…”
Steven Sinofsky Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 23:35
Prediction Held up
Evans: Apple and Facebook will build full-stack VR while Google commoditizes hardware
“You'll have Apple and Facebook trying to do the full stack, and you'll have Google saying, well, we're going to provide the hard bit, and everything else will be a commodity around it.”
Benedict Evans Jan 2, 2019 ▶ 24:30
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