Feb 26, 2019 · 42m · a16z
a16z Podcast | Pulse Check on Consumer Tech Trends 2019, CES and Beyond
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of the a16z Podcast, tech analysts Benedict Evans and Steven Sinofsky share insights from CES 2019, examining key trends across display technology, smart home devices, voice platforms, streaming fragmentation, and the underlying B2B hardware supply chain.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. How this is scored →
The host as informed peer 0.0 Guest teaching 2.6 Guest disagreement 2.0 The host pushing back 0.0
speaking balance: gold is the host, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 30:05 Critique of voice assistant UX as terminal syntax
Steven Sinofsky strongly rejects the industry narrative that voice assistants represent a seamless UI breakthrough, arguing that requiring specific syntax is functionally equivalent to a command line interface.
Hardest push from the host ▶ 18:14 Refusing media framing of Apple-Samsung dealBenedict Evans explicitly rejects the widespread media narrative that Apple offering iTunes on Samsung TVs was a fundamental strategic decoupling of software from hardware.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 22:20 Explaining legacy lock manufacturer advantagesBenedict Evans articulates why incumbents like Yale and Schlage won the smart lock market due to physical door constraints, SKU proliferation, and established distribution routes.
The host holds their own ▶ 19:05 Motorola iTunes phone strategic analogySteven Sinofsky deepens the analysis of the Apple-Samsung announcement by drawing a historical parallel to the pre-iPhone Motorola ROKR iTunes integration.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | The host as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | The host pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Understanding the Value and Purpose of CES | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | The formal host is absent from the dialogue as Steven Sinofsky and Benedict Evans conduct a peer-to-peer discussion on the nature of CES. They collaboratively outline how the event functions as a showcase for supply chain components rather than just consumer products. | |
| Big Tech, Grassroots Startups, and the Component Tent | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | Sinofsky and Evans break down the three distinct layers of CES, emphasizing grassroots startups and component manufacturers over big tech marketing booths. The conversation remains strictly collegial with zero host presence. | |
| Display Innovation, Flexible OLEDs, and Arbitrary Screens | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | The speakers analyze display technology shifts from failed 3D/curved screens to flexible OLEDs and arbitrary LCD cutouts. Both speakers display high industry domain knowledge while building on each other's points. | |
| Content App Fragmentation and Smart TV Strategy | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | Evans and Sinofsky debate the fragmentation of streaming apps on smart TVs and analyze Apple's iTunes deal with Samsung. Evans dismisses the hype around the deal, framing it as routine business development rather than a strategic shift. | |
| Smart Home Evolution, Alarms, and Legacy Lock Dominance | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | The conversation examines why legacy lock manufacturers outmaneuvered tech startups in smart home adoption through distribution channels and sustaining innovation. The dialogue remains entirely analytical without host intervention. | |
| Voice Assistants, Command Syntax, and Platform Leverage | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | Sinofsky offers a sharp critique of voice assistant smart home integrations, comparing the rigid syntax requirements to using a command line terminal. Evans agrees while questioning Amazon's long-term platform monetization lever. | |
| Utility, Over-Engineering, and the Smart Home Experiment | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | The guests discuss over-engineered smart home devices like voice-controlled beds and smart toilets, framing them as market experimentation. The segment wraps up with humorous anecdotes on founder hustle. |
Statements from this episode (15)
Sinofsky: Shared supply cycles cause parallel product trends at CES
“They all are dealing with the next parts of why you go to CES, which is these ingredients that sort of bubble up, and then they take about the same amount of time for a big company to act, and they all show up with it at the same time.”
Evans: Entrepreneurs can source entire smart speaker supply chains at CES
“You can start at one end and walk out at the other end with a complete smart speaker.”
Evans: CES is primarily a B2B hardware supply chain exhibition
“You're actually not seeing the consumer bit. You're mostly, mostly what you're seeing is everything that sits behind the point of the spear.”
Evans: 3D TVs failed completely and curved TVs have largely disappeared
“Three D TVs, as we all know, failed completely. Two, three years ago, every stand had lots of curved TVs. Now, curved TVs have totally disappeared, except for a vast display of on the outside of LG's stand, and gaming monitors.”
Evans: Rollable TVs will hit the consumer market by 2022
“In two and three years time, you will be able to buy something that's three foot long. You put it on a shelf. When you want to watch TV, you press a button and a TV is there five seconds later.”
Evans: Arbitrarily shaped screens will be ubiquitous on products by 2024
“And so, you know, five years time, I have no problem imagining that this will just be everywhere.”
Evans: Streaming fragmentation will force consumers to manage dozens of apps
“Disney's going to have its own thing, and NBC's going to have its own thing, and you're going to end up with like 45 apps on your device, and that also seems very unstable.”
Evans: TV manufacturers are building feature TVs, not true smart TVs
“TV people are feature phone makers. They're not smartphone. They're not smart TVs. They're feature TVs.”
Sinofsky: Microsoft could not stop PC manufacturers from pre-installing bloatware
“There's just no way you could get the PC makers to stop putting extra software on PCs. Like, it's just not There's not an option for that to exist. Like you could try and try. I tried.”
Evans: Incumbent manufacturers defeated tech startups in the smart lock market
“And what seems to have happened is that the locks guys won. Because there's not really a network effect. There's not actually very much software to the lock by itself. It just has to lock and unlock based on something you do on your smartphone, and they can bu…”
Sinofsky: Hardware startups underestimate go-to-market challenges against heavy industry incumbents
“Startups tend to really underestimate the route to market in the go to market for like existing sort of heavy industry”
Sinofsky: Startups avoid smoke alarms due to massive liability and fire codes
“Really nobody wants to make smoke alarms, because that's like super easy and massive liability. Like, it's like a scary business to enter. And plus, you have to know all the fire codes all around the world.”
Sinofsky: Voice assistant divergence will end easy dual-platform hardware integration
“Google is going to have a different set of ideas for what you can do with this device than Amazon does. And once the platforms start diverging, the idea of it being five lines of code and you get both for sort of for free is going to really change.”