scaling laws

also referred to as: scaling law

8 statements across 6 episodes · 7 bullish · 0 bearish · 6 people on the record · first statement Sep 25, 2023 by Dario Amodei · across every show →

Everything said about scaling laws, oldest first

Sep 25, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Amodei: AI scaling laws will continue driving improvements without algorithmic breakthroughs
“I think we are on track, even if there were no algorithmic improvements from here, even if we just scaled up what we had so far, ah, I think the scaling laws are going to continue, and I think that's going to lead to amazing improvements.”
Dario Amodei Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 0:00 Improving AI with Anthropic's Dario Amodei
Sep 25, 2023 bullish
Insight
Amodei: Next-word prediction scaling has no limits and will continue
“Our view was that, look, this is the beginning of something amazing because there's no limit and you can continue to scale it up. And there's no reason why the patterns we've seen before won't continue to hold. The objective of predicting the next word is so r…”
Dario Amodei Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 3:28 Improving AI with Anthropic's Dario Amodei
Sep 25, 2023 bullish
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Amodei: AI inference will remain affordable over next 3-4 years
“I think my basic view is that inference will not get that much more expensive. The simple, you know, the basic logic of the scaling laws is that if you increase compute by a factor of n, you need to increase data by a factor of square root of n. And size the m…”
Dario Amodei Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 7:55 Improving AI with Anthropic's Dario Amodei
Sep 25, 2023 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Murati: No evidence that scaling compute and data is slowing AI progress
“So there isn't any evidence that we will not get much better, much more capable models as we continue to scale them across the axis of data and compute.”
Mira Murati Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 17:52 Where We Go From Here with OpenAI's Mira Murati
Sep 25, 2023 bullish
Assertion Not checkable as stated
AI scaling laws show no signs of stopping
“I don't think anyone's seen like these scaling laws, you know, stop. I think as far as anybody has experimented, stuff just gets, keeps, keeps getting smarter.”
Noam Shazeer Sep 25, 2023 ▶ 16:05 Universally Accessible Intelligence with Character.ai's Noam Shazeer
Feb 14, 2025 positive
Insight
Sivulka: AI scaling laws are fundamental mathematical properties of the universe
“And I think they're both effectively mathematical properties of the universe. I don't think they're you know, just an experimental observed thing.”
George Sivulka Feb 14, 2025 ▶ 1:31 Reasoning Models Are Remaking Professional Services
Sep 30, 2025 positive
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fedus: Physics and chemistry demonstrate scaling laws similar to AI
“On the material science side, we're seeing scaling laws within physics, within chemistry both with respect to simulations, with respect to experiment, and it's like the same kind of principles at play and ML.”
Liam Fedus Sep 30, 2025 ▶ 3:02 Building an AI Physicist: ChatGPT Co-Creator’s Next Venture
Oct 14, 2025 neutral
Insight
Labenz: AI scaling laws are empirical observations, not guaranteed natural laws
“The scaling law idea, which is, you know, it's definitely worth agreeing, taking a moment to note that it is not a law of nature. You know, we do not have a principled reason to believe that scaling is some law that will go indefinitely. All we really know is …”
Nathan Labenz Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 7:25 Is AI Slowing Down? Nathan Labenz Says We're Asking the Wrong Question
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