why aren't all 20 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Disclosure
Whoop Refused to Pay Professional Athletes for Early Product Adoption
“One perfect example of that, which we just talked about, is having these high-profile athletes wearing our product twenty-four-seven without us paying them. You know, I said, we're not going to sponsor professional athletes. They're going to either use this te…”
What-if
Deep-Tech Startups Should Raise Maximum Early Capital to Offset Risk
“And so I think for businesses that have that ambition where they're trying to build something that's never existed before, And frankly, it has a lot of existential technology risk, which our business certainly did early on. I do think raising a lot of capital …”
Insight
Will Ahmed: Telling Startup Founders to Be Realistic Stifles Ambition
“Well, realistically, 90% of startups fail. So the 10% that are successful just In their own right, you know, have achieved something that's unrealistic. And I think too often feedback loops that are given to founders are to be realistic as sort of a criticism …”
Insight
Winning Star Athletes Requires Building Relationships With Their Personal Trainers
“And the key to getting these high profile people is often finding someone in their life who's more influential to them than other people realize, and for the most part is somewhat unknown. And in the case of Professional athletes that often turns out to be the…”
Insight
Startup Chaos is Normal, Healthy, and Scales With Fast Growth
“I think chaos is actually just sort of a normal and healthy feeling for a startup to be in, and I think the faster you're growing and even the more successful you are, the more chaotic it can feel.”
Disclosure
Whoop Spent Tens of Millions Over Seven Years Before Finding Its Model
“We had this hairy moment where we were transitioning from being a hardware business to being a subscription. That ended up being the right decision for the business, but it also demonstrated that we were Seven years in and hadn't quite found our business model…”
Disclosure
Whoop Data Shows One Glass of Alcohol Can Improve Sleep for Some
“There are certain individuals who we've seen one glass of alcohol can actually make them sleep better. It tends to get slippery from there, so two to three, three to four, then all of a sudden your sleep really should be disrupted.”
Prediction Held up
Whoop Will Move Directly Into Core Healthcare and Medical Interactions
“I think that over time, you'll see us moving much more directly into the core healthcare world and interacting with doctors and medical professionals”
Assertion Supported
Will Ahmed: 65% of Startup Failures Stem From Co-Founder Conflict
“I think it's something like 65% of startups fail because the co-founders get in some massive disagreement or Can't work together anymore.”
Disclosure
Whoop Deliberately Avoided Replacing Personal Trainers to Accelerate Product Adoption
“Now, personal trainer was also someone that we actually wanted to empower. We didn't want to disrupt, right? So we could have built technology that said, this is going to replace your trainer and this is going to replace your coach. But we were pretty mindful …”
Insight
Retaining Direct Reports After Losing Trust Harms Both Parties
“The moment you lose trust in someone you're working directly with, it's important to have a conversation about why you've lost trust in them, and can they earn it back? I think generally speaking, if you've lost trust in someone who reports directly to you, or…”
Insight
Growing Startups Must Eliminate Committees to Maintain Decision Speed
“In general, I try to cut as much slack out of processes as possible. I think that as you grow and as you have more people in an organization, there's sort of this urge to focus Form more committees and form more meetings. And I think the more you can just cut …”
Insight
Founders Must Quickly Build Hiring Systems That Operate Without Them
“Well, I do think that's a goal that you should have for yourself as a founder as soon as possible. How quickly can I build a team to hire great people without me? How can I scale the mission or vision pitch as much as possible?”
Insight
Founders Must Separate Personal Performance From Company Performance
“The first thing that you have to figure out, and this was a real challenge for me, is that your individual performance and the company's performance are two separate things.”
Insight
Startup Output Shifts From Individuals to Management at 50 Employees
“At some point, it's probably close to 50 people, but definitely between 50 and a hundred people, the output of the organization becomes much more about the overall team than any singular, you know, effort you're making, or any singular contribution you're maki…”
Opinion
Ahmed: 2010 Was the Cultural Peak of 'More is More' Fitness Mentality
“And this would have been around 2010, which I think from a cultural standpoint was the peak of more is more.”
Disclosure
Will Ahmed Read 500 Medical Papers at Harvard Before Founding Whoop
“I read something like 500 medical papers while I was in school.”
Assertion Supported
Whoop's Three Original Co-Founders Remain Together After Nine Years
“In my case, John Capitalupo, who's our chief technology officer, who I met when he was 19, he dropped out of Harvard to build this business with me, and Aurelian Nikolai, who graduated the same year as me at Harvard, who's our lead mechanical engineer. You kno…”
Assertion Partly supported
In 2018, Fitbit Traded at 1x Revenue While Peloton Traded at 20x
“This is also around the same time that Fitbit as a publicly traded company was trading at about one times revenue, which isn't great. And Peloton as a private company was trading at about 20 times revenue.”
Assertion Supported
Whoop's Core Metrics Originated in Will Ahmed's 2011 College Paper
“I wrote this paper in, in 2011 as a student called The Feedback Tool, Measuring Intensity, Recovery, and Sleep. Our three main metrics 10 years later are strain, recovery, and sleep.”