The Ledger
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Wagner: VC partners are rarely punished for consensus mistakes
“There's this kind of safety in the herd thing, and I, a belief within, you know, firms and partners, and not incorrect, that if they're making the same mistake that everyone else in the industry is making, they probably won't be punished for it, because, you k…”
Wagner: Venture capital splits into AUM gathering vs return generation
“I think for an asset gatherer, you know, there's sort of two business models in venture, you know, you can be in the assets under management game, or you can be in the generate best possible returns game.”
Wagner: Investors emphasizing annual capital deployment are asset gatherers
“Anytime you meet an investor that talks about the amount of capital they deploy per year, right, you know you're talking to, you know, an asset gatherer”
Wagner: Price Sensitivity in Early-Stage VC Signals Weak Conviction
“When I'm getting really nervous about a price getting too high often actually what that also is, it's an indication that maybe my conviction is lacking. I don't have sufficient conviction around this investment, and so queasiness about price is actually a symp…”
Wagner: Early-stage VCs adding opportunity funds underestimate multi-strategy complexity
“That it's difficult to have all these different strategies cohabitate under one roof. They have different methodologies, You have to build the teams differently. You know, the investment decisions are made, you know, with very different criteria, and it's not …”
Wagner: Top B2B founders are frustrated domain experts, not outsiders
“In B to B technology which is where we focus deep understanding of what you're on the part of the founders. Of what they're attempting to disrupt is actually really important, but you need to have also, you know, that, that deep understanding, which is really …”
Wagner: Traditional 20% VC ownership target no longer makes sense
“Fund sizes are different. Outcome sizes are different. You know, so there's no, no real reason the 20% rule should make any sense”
Wagner: Early-stage VCs miss key factors by over-relying on quantitative metrics
“I think over-reliance on quantitative metrics in investment decision-making. So the whole, and in early stage so the, I think the dependence upon this sort of suite of metrics as indicators of what, you know whether you should invest or not, you know, is it ha…”
Wagner: LPs are frustrated by mega-funds and seek pure-play early-stage VC
“There's a lot of demand for unadulterated early stage venture capital, you know, being practiced by experienced people with a track record. And a lot of the very best people with those track records, you know, are within aircraft carriers now, and the LPs are …”
Peter Wagner: The best founders maintain high-bandwidth investor engagement
“The very best founders that I work with, the most talented, most capable, most sought after are also the ones where, you know, we have the highest bandwidth engagement.”
Wagner: Great startups require pissed-off founders solving glaring deficiencies
“You need to have just some glaring deficiency in the current approaches. And so you almost need to find, you know, founders that are like just pissed off.”
Wagner: Early VC Success Builds Credibility but Can Delay Crucial Lessons
“You know, it's a double edged sword, right? So it can be very good in terms of building some credibility and some reputation. And that certainly was the case, you know, for me. And so it brought, You know, maybe sort of more relevant and interesting to founder…”
Wagner: Balancing guardrails and autonomy accelerates VC investor learning
“And then you give that person both enough rope to hang themselves so that they're, you know, feeling tremendous accountability. You know, what will be called the sleepless night factor. But also guardrails that protect them from making, you know, really egregi…”
Wagner: Sweet spot startups balance customer familiarity with incumbent defense
“Finding that opportunity, which is close enough to something that people understand, so it isn't just a complete lobotomy for the customer, right? You know, so that, so they have some grounding, but different enough so that it isn't just kind of an obvious nex…”
Peter Wagner: Thematic focus helps VCs judge market timing risks
“I think the thematic focus and sort of only working in domains that you understand really well is an advantage. You know, you have I think better, better proximity to judge when, you know, when the architectural transition is, is, is likely to occur. You have …”
Wagner: Relying on a startup's second act is highly risky
“It's incredibly difficult for a startup to do a second thing, you know, so, so any sort of notion about Oh, well, I'll do this first thing, and it's not that big an opportunity, but I'll be, then I'll be able to do this second thing. It's like, oh boy, you kno…”
Wagner: Low Valuation Is Never Justification to Invest in Flawed Companies
“A low price is never a reason to do, to make an investment right, so there's no, no, No, no price, you know, that, that will, that is sufficient justification for something that is, you know, otherwise flawed.”
Wagner: VCs deciding on company sales must closely heed management recommendations
“I try and really listen closely to the management teams, you know, cause, cause they are so much closer to the action. And, you know, if you're talking about, should you sell a private company or not? Their recommendations need to be really discerned and close…”
Wagner: Word of mouth and personal touch no longer cover modern VC market
“Well, the industry has scaled to the point where you know, just things like word of mouth and direct personal touch you know, are insufficient to reach the market, and even though I happen to prefer working that way but I just have to get over myself a little …”
Wagner: First-time founders' biggest mistake is prioritizing expediency over value
“I think choosing expedience over, you know, the hard things that, that actually Contribute to long-term value. You know, there's sort of quick fixes and sort of feel-good measures that can take the edge off whatever is bothering you at a moment in time. But th…”