The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Raising $100M+ is critical for new tech company success
“I would say going back to the study and also seeing my own data points, The capital efficiency, well, actually, simply, it is important to win the capital arms race. That raising a hundred million dollars is critical to the success of new companies.”
NEA requires $800M+ exits to move the needle, unlike smaller funds
“I think one realization coming since joining Canvas a few years ago is a small exit, like, easily moves the needle for a fund like Canvas, whereas we used to joke when you don't have an exit more than eight hundred million, you know, it doesn't move the needle…”
Female founders consistently under-promise and over-deliver compared to male peers
“One thing that's unique about this cohort of entrepreneurs is that they tend to under-promise and over-deliver, and it's really just more consistent amongst the female entrepreneurs and CEOs.”
Venture investors bias female founders' pitch confidence as aggressiveness
“When a female entrepreneur presents, the confidence is viewed as negative. It's been too aggressive.”
90% of the top 500 tech companies raised $85M+ in capital
“90% of the entire cohort raised more than 85 to a hundred million dollars. I mean, there are always exceptions like Stitch Fix, Zoopla in UK, and Tableau in Seattle, but really the vast majority of them have raised a lot of capital, especially in more recent t…”
Over $600B in LP capital is trapped inside private tech companies
“Yeah, I think for the LPs, for the minimum partners who have trusted their capital with us, there is what, More than six hundred billion dollars currently trapped inside these large private enterprises. And I think it is our fiduciary responsibility and of the…”
Founders should pick individual VC partners over firm brands
“Vice says CEO is that ultimately an entrepreneur's relationship with VCs is with one individual of the firm. You rarely see other partners, so picking the right GP for you is the most important and not the firm, and I've seen that to be very true.”
Marketplaces should target power sellers over long-tail supply
“One is winning a very differentiated supply first. Always go deep and have a thick network in one specific cluster versus broad and horizontal. And we're just finding that equivalent of power sellers in your target market is really critical. They have volume, …”
Direct online demand marketing wastes capital for early marketplaces
“When generating early demand, one of the more counterintuitive learnings Is that early marketplace demands are dependent on an existing distribution and offline activities. Like for house, for example, you mentioned early health on Tulia was invaluable. And I …”
Marketplace founders should give up if supply isn't differentiated
“I think when you know you should give up is when your supply is not differentiated. When the users can actually find your supply at a lot of different places, you have to question whether what you do is truly making your supply size business better. Is it tran…”
80% of top tech founders started companies in their 20s or 30s
“One commonalities, the most striking one is they are mostly started by young people. You know, we all know some of the extreme examples of Gates, Zuckerberg, and Steve Jobs, who started their companies in their teens and early twenties, but I was surprised by …”
Consumer tech is in a fallow period lacking viral distribution channels
“I think so, yes, but I can change quickly. You know, I think about Alexa or Google Home, those could all, you know, emerge or become an important new distribution channel. We don't know yet. Too early to tell. But yes, we are in a period where we lack new and …”
Marketplace growth occurs in step functions driven by supply critical mass
“The other is, third is actually it takes patience. It takes the growth curve, looks more like step function versus a linear curve. You get frustrated that demand looks flat for a period of time, and we see this often. And then suddenly the demand jumps. You ge…”
Monthly repeat cohort data dictates when to scale marketplace capital
“At that level, when deciding whether you put a lot of capital to work, we look at the monthly repeat cohort data. It really tells you a lot how often they come back, and all the things we just talked about play into and contribute to that cohort data, and that…”