The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 23 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Biilmann: Next 100M developers will emerge around agentic tools
“I think we'll see the next hundred million software developers emerge around tools that are Gentic, but I still think it will be a profession to use those tools to do stuff, to build stuff for other people.”
Biilmann: AI agents will likely reduce Salesforce to a system of record
“But they definitely feel it very strongly as like the biggest threat to them to be reduced to that system of record and not the actual like workflow platform. And I think that's pretty likely what would happen, right?”
Biilmann: Build vs buy equation will shift toward custom internal apps
“I think it's a balance that will really start tipping, right? Like where today, if you're a company and you have a specific business need, hiring a development team to build, deploy, operate an internal application just for you to solve that business need, the…”
Biilmann: AI custom apps will challenge enterprise SaaS within five years
“And now my timeline is more like five years and 15 years before it's going to be like really relevant.”
Biilmann: AI agents are 15-20 years away from maintaining complex software infrastructure
“And then you could speculate, can the agents maintain it? But I think. I think that, that then we are definitely in a 15, 20 year horizon before, before they could be relied on for anything like that.”
Biilmann: Figma faces existential revenue threat without end-to-end AI building tools
“But if Figma doesn't manage to connect that to the full end to end chain of prototyping and building and so on, then this could be a pretty existential threat. To companies like that over time, or at least like a threat to their current revenue model”
Biilmann: Chat Prompting Will Never Deliver Differentiated E-Commerce Experiences
“If I follow a link and I land on an e-commerce from like a large brand that's trying to really differentiate themselves and be something different, right? Like I definitely just, I wouldn't want just to have some box saying like, you come up with what you want…”
Biilmann: AI Web Builders Will Force Brands to Adopt Novel Interfaces
“When the cost of building an e-commerce that looks like any of the current brands today goes down to like, just Ask Bolt to do it for you. Ask Lovable to do it for you. And you have that. Those brands are going to have to come up with something much more engag…”
Biilmann: Open AI ecosystems will defeat closed verticalized models
“And it'll actually be an advantage for like the agent builders to not be tied to a specific model and be able to like, just jump around between whichever model is best. And I think once that start is happening, we're going to have like that, that's going to me…”
Biilmann: Bullish on Anthropic due to coding and programming superiority
“Anthropic definitely has really stood out in, in their ability to solve programming and coding style tasks in a way that I think is like I'm very bullish on Anthropic for that reason, because I think that's such a groundbreaking part of what makes LLMs multipl…”
Biilmann: Would buy Anthropic over OpenAI and Grok at current valuations
“I would probably go for Anthropic. It's a really interesting thing from the outside where a lot of their motivation started around these like safety concerns and like, how do we allow the models to not take over the world and so on. And I think after sort of a…”
Biilmann: WordPress has reached the end of its innovation cycle
“I mean, I think WordPress is, is in a challenging position where they are kind of like in the end of their innovation cycle. And I don't think they're in a great position to respond to all of this disruption. So I think like it'll be seen more and more as a bi…”
Biilmann: Google has failed to productize generative AI compellingly
“If I look at Google's products, like I now have all these Genesis buttons all over and I never use them. They just haven't managed to productize it in a way that feels super compelling.”
Biilmann: Cheaper development will trigger radical surge in custom software demand
“Like I think what we're seeing now is definitely the cost of building custom workflows, custom UIs, custom applications is going to dive down dramatically. And typically that will mean that demand for doing that will Go up radically and people will start build…”
Biilmann: Custom AI apps fail on Kubernetes due to overwhelming maintenance costs
“Like otherwise, if it's just fully custom built Kubernetes cluster stuff, all of it, the viability of that whole approach goes away, right? Like the maintenance cost just overtakes everything.”
Biilmann: AI builder tool revenue is durable, not a sugar high
“When I look at tools like bold and lovable, the category itself has something where it seems obvious that there will be a lot of money spent there. Just because like, when you see some of the examples of what people can do with those tools that they just could…”
Biilmann: Would sell Grok over OpenAI and Anthropic
“I would probably sell Grok. I still think like it sits a little more in a middle space”
Biilmann: Founders should always raise capital at the highest possible valuation
“As a founder, you should always raise at the best price you can, right? Like, and capitalize the company as much as you can, because like, you want to be able to weather harder periods.”
Biilmann: Great DX will require great agent experience within five years
“I just don't think anyone can have a great developer experience five years from now, if they don't have a great agent experience.”
Biilmann: Starting new software projects is shifting from design templates to AI prompting
“There's no doubt that the way people start projects in general are really already starting to shift a lot, both from traditional templates and bootstraps and front end frameworks on the one end, on the other end from like design prototypes and visual design on…”
Biilmann: Higher software abstraction layers did not shrink traditional developer populations
“But the interesting thing is that the layer below of like Ruby and Rails developers and Java developers and .NET developers. It's probably still at least as large as this was before that. The new layer just got added on top.”
Biilmann: Microsoft is the safest 10-year stock buy under Satya Nadella
“It's a hard one, but I would probably say Microsoft. I think again, if you can only buy one, you probably want it to be a pretty safe one. You want it to be one that benefits from all of the disruption AI is going to bring to the field rather than like falls f…”
Software companies defer user signup to support AI agent onboarding
“We've seen a lot of companies now start adopting similar flows, right? Like in the authentication space, in the database space and so on to make the tools available to agents without an explicit user's sign up and set up step first and delaying that step to af…”