The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 974 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 974 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Driscoll: AI increasing developer efficiency will lead companies to hire more engineers
“If automation, if 20% spend on tokens, three X's the effectiveness of your developer, then the ROI in developers goes up, so the number of developers will go up.”
Tobi Lütke aims to keep Shopify headcount flat with 100x AI productivity
“My real hope is seven and a half to 8000, right? Like at a hundred x productivity level, right?”
O'Driscoll: Canva and Rippling won't fetch 30x revenue premiums
“Good SaaS companies that aren't AI first are going to trade at fair value, which means if you've created value, you'll get value. And I think Canva and Rippling have both created enormous value. So they'll get value, but what they won't get is that stupid, 30 …”
O'Driscoll: Cursor Deal Will Be Private M&A Peak for Next Decade
“I think this will stand as the high watermark of private M&A for a decade.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic will target a public market debut in Q4
“So my assumption is these guys are going to go public, as we said, October Q-IV time period if they can.”
Lemkin: Anthropic will never build direct Figma or Adobe competitors
“But I do not believe Anthropic will ever build a direct Figma or Illustrator or Adobe competitor. They don't have to maim them.”
O'Driscoll: Core payroll SaaS will survive and compound over next decade
“These are entire businesses that, you know, might have some impact at the margin in terms of agentic efficiency, but this core business will be there in five, 10 years' time. It'll compound because payroll is not, not everything is, I mean, it's, we're actuall…”
Levie: AI agents tapping OpEx budgets will double global tech spend
“And I don't think it like, You know, 10 X's the size of IT spend or technology spend globally, but it certainly doubles it.”
Jake Paul: Anti Fund Aims to Manage $10B to $20B Eventually
“Yeah, I think if the 30 mil fund was, like, the end goal, it would be like, no, but, like, we want to run 10, twenty billion dollars at some point, and look up to people like, you know, Josh Kushner at Thrive, who started with, you know, I think it was four, f…”
Jason Lemkin predicts OpenAI will reach $100B in ad revenue
“I like this as a goal for 2030 because it's clear what people should be doing... And so I think because it is achievable, it will be achieved. I actually think it will be achieved.”
O'Driscoll: Tech giants won't cut AI spending in 2026, keeping Nvidia sold out
“No one's going to blink on their investments for twenty-twenty-six. You actually know the next four quarters of NVIDIA announcement. You know the next four quarters of every one of the infrastructure, which is every single thing we can make. If you can count t…”
Midha: Many Future Frontier AI Companies Will Pass $100B Valuations
“Oh, so many. I'm saying periodic is one.”
Reyna: OpenAI, Google, and ElevenLabs will buy new foundational model startups
“OpenAI and Anthropic will end up, and Google will end up buying, and 11 Labs will end up buying, like, all of the new foundational model companies that will be popping up and creating research and paying just, like, a few billion here, a few billion there, and…”
Lemkin: Investors will discover more portfolio companies fabricating audits with AI
“We're going to find more, more portfolio companies did that.”
O'Driscoll: Mercor will survive its security breach and rebuild customer trust
“And my guess is the likely outcome is You lose a fair amount of revenue. You lose a fair amount of time. You're going to have to spend a ton of money to bolster your defenses, but if you do the right thing, you'll be able to earn your way back slowly and over …”
Hassabis: DeepMind's 2010 prediction of a 20-year AGI timeline remains on track
“We used to do this extrapolation of compute and algorithmic progress, and basically we predicted around 20 years it would take from when we started out, and I think we're pretty much on track.”
Hassabis: Open-source AI models will lag frontier proprietary models by six months
“I think increasingly you know, what you're gonna see is the open source models are probably one step back from the absolute frontier. You know, it usually takes about six months for the open source community to sort of re-implement and figure out what those id…”
Weight loss is not the majority of Hims & Hers' revenue
“So weight loss is actually, you know, nowhere near the majority of this business. And I don't think ever will be just because you're continuing to expand core categories and a lot of new categories.”
Lemkin: US VC investments in Singapore-redomiciled Chinese startups are over
“I don't think another deal like this would happen to you. I think this whole Singapore, Washington thing is over. It's over.”
Andreessen: 5 billion people will use smartphone AI within years
“We're not that many years away from five billion people in the world having AI running on five billion people who have smartphones and internet access.”
Andreessen: a16z will 100% not pass on defense tech deals again
“And so you'll notice that like we are now extremely enthusiastic investors in defense tech and in you know, things involving law enforcement, national security, public safety and, you know, say a hundred percent, we would not make that same mistake again.”
Raanan: Within five years, a startup will make Wiz's growth look slow
“I'm, Confident that five years from now, I, I'll be able to show you, I'll be able to demonstrate another team that, you know, showing that actually wheeze was a slog and they can move much faster and they've done whatever it is.”
Lemkin: Hyperscalers will not buy existing unicorns
“I just don't believe the hyperscalers are going to buy these companies.”
O'Driscoll: Markets won't sustain a $400B valuation bump from Musk's fab announcement
“I am significantly more skeptical That six months from now, people are going to attribute another 400 billion of value to a statement that I'm going to build a fab.”
Lemkin: Seed ownership will increasingly dilute to 3-4% at exit
“I think we're going to see more and more of those. Right. Dilution in time. We'll see more and more seed investments eroded to three, four percent.”
Steckman: Only one drone startup will ultimately win the market
“There'll be one that wins, right? It's going to be really hard to pick it, I think is the problem. Like, but there will definitely be one winner.”
Steckman: Anduril is a couple of years away from an IPO
“Still a couple of years out, but we're close. We're in the window.”
Rajaram: Marathon will not invest in frontier AI labs at billion-dollar valuations
“Not possible. I don't think with our fund it's possible. I think the ownership is just literally the first round for these companies is, like you said, a billion dollars. So I think it's just too high a, the risk reward is just not worth it.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic will eventually submit to government demands to protect B2B revenue
“They won't clearly get a two hundred million dollar revenue deal with the U S department of war, but in a perfect world, if they bend the knee prevail on the law, what we've seen in multiple other situations is you end up at some kind of, you know, acquiescenc…”
O'Driscoll: AI capex overinvestment cycle will not correct in 2026
“Until that happens. We're going to over invest. And I don't think it's happening in 20, 26.”
Clements: 95% of developers switch AI models daily
“And one of the things that we're learning is like 50% of developers switch model families on a daily basis and 95% of developers switch models on a daily basis.”
Mitchell Green: ByteDance will list in Hong Kong, not the US
“Zero percent chance it'll list in the US. No, I mean, just to answer it, I have no clue, but no, it'll list in Hong Kong.”
Green: Investors Will Still Hold Unsold 2012 Stakes in 2030
“At some point, I don't know if it's three years, or five years, or seven years, for sure. People are gonna wake up in 20, in 2030, in 2032, and realize it's, oh my god, they're still all in this stuff from 20 12 and 20 15.”
Stebbings: OpenAI will IPO in October 2026 at $1.5 trillion valuation
“I'm going to say October and I'm going to say it's going to go out at 1.5 trillion.”
Zinman: Monday.com will transition entirely to consumption-based pricing
“Well, eventually I think it's gonna be more consumption and then entirely consumption going forward. So I think there's also be a transition, but now it's gonna be hybrid, and eventually it's gonna be a hundred percent consumption.”
Zinman: Monday.com will remain public with no reason to go private
“No. I don't see a reason. No. Look, I think at the end of the day, you know, you can be private, you can be public. The question is, do you need to raise more money? And we don't. We generate 27% of free cash flow. We don't need to raise more money. We have ev…”
Rory O'Driscoll: CrowdStrike will not be obviated by Anthropic's security launch
“I don't think CrowdStrike's obviated by this. I think it will totally be fine. It'll continue to be a business.”
O'Driscoll: Only AI-led applications will grow over the next decade
“I think intelligence-led applications are the only applications that are going to sell And grow quickly over the next 10 years. Non-intelligent-led applications will at best be flat to mild growth if they're not obviously disrupted by intelligence, and at wors…”
Emberikos: OpenAI aims for AI agents that run micro-systems without human review
“So, like, I think we want to get to a world where you can have an agent that is un-bottlenecked, right? That you trust to, like, own an entire microsystem or internal tool or whatever, and can do the full iterative loop, including feedback from users, without …”
Emberikos: Startups will soon build on software stacks fully managed by AI
“I basically think that probably big companies will take a long time to, like, deploy this, but many startups might actually kind of start building on a completely new stack that's, like, fully AI managed.”
O'Driscoll: Enterprise AI spending will surge for two years before retrenchment
“My gut would be people will overbet, overinvest, and you will have a retrenchment period, you know, two plus years from now, but I think right now you're just looking at two years where, you know, just as the hyperscaler said two years ago, we're going to do t…”
O'Driscoll: SaaS companies ignoring AI will see multiples fall to 4x-5x
“If you don't get on top of this soon, That 10 X revenues is going to go on a five and four and where the other seven percent growth was are. Fast forward five years, there's really only one or two stories. They get on top of this, they get a third market share…”
Lemkin: Monday.com Will Churn Faster Than HubSpot and Salesforce
“The Mondays will churn faster than HubSpot, right? And HubSpot will churn faster than Salesforce. It's just delayed churn, right? That, that's the thing is, you know, ServiceNow takes you 10 years to get off that platform.”
Siemiatkowski: Nubank will outperform Revolut in US expansion
“I think I have to go with David. Because I think, ah, Nick's challenge right now might be that he is so distributed. I mean, he's trying to go for the whole world, right? I mean, he's launching in Dubai. He's launching in India. He's launching everywhere. You …”
Stebbings: IT consultants will out-earn foundation models in short-term revenue
“I think they will be more revenue generative than the foundation model companies in the next two to three years, as they often are in early stages of kind of cycles.”
Acharya: AI movie creation will be won by startups, not Adobe
“If you said something like, you know, software movies or AI movie making or sort of AI assisted movies, that's just not a category in which there is an incumbent, and I'm betting that a native company will actually win that. It probably won't be Adobe.”
O'Driscoll: The era of tech companies staying private forever is over
“What you just saw is the rehabilitation of the IPO. I'm going to call it the end of stay private forever.”
Lemkin: Top 25 public software stocks slowed every quarter since Q1 2022
“Every single quarter since Q one of 20, 22 growth has slowed for the, for all public software stocks. Every single quarter it has slowed and it continues to slow. And there are a handful of folks that have reaccelerated like Mongo and Palantir. And there are a…”