The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4,908 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 846 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Zeev will not change deployment pace for LP vintage preferences
“I'm going to do my thing, and if it works for them, fine, and if not, they can opt themselves out, and some of them have, and it's fine. Good people opted out, and it's fine. I'm not going to do things differently.”
Junestrand: Anthropic and Gemini will outperform OpenAI in enterprise AI
“I'll bet based on what I've seen in the last sort of three, six months. I think for our type of work, it will either be cloud or Gemini. That is the top model. And it will be dependent on if context window is a very important factor or not. So far it is not be…”
O'Driscoll: Google Search ad dollars will shift to OpenAI
“Their cash cow, which kicks off 200 and forty-odd billion a year of revenue, which is the ads business, Isn't the best product on the market anymore, and some of those dollars will go to open AI, and because it's better real estate.”
Weinberg: AI won't replace junior lawyers, law firms will do more work
“I don't think so. I think we'll just get more work.”
Stebbings: Tech leaders face unprecedented demonization by 2026 over AI job losses
“I think another prediction of mine for 2026 is I think we're going to see like the demonization of tech and tech leaders like never before, as you see the first real instantiation of job losses and job displacement in, in large parts of the economy, like in lo…”
Lemkin: Founders will massively exit California in 2027 if wealth tax passes
“I think founders will begin to massively exit in 20, 27 before the next one goes up because there's going to be a second if this passes and a third.”
Lemkin: California wealth tax will turn Silicon Valley into Detroit
“And so, I do think if this goes as far as the folks that have Backing at want, you could have a Detroit in the Silicon Valley. Like, when it becomes a meme to do YC, or to do South Park Common, but then build, you know, get your money, build your team, and the…”
Rampell: AI could drive Zendesk's seat-based revenue down to zero
“On the other side, you have things like Zendesk, right? Where it's like, how many licenses per seat do you need of Zendesk? If now every customer support ticket can be answered automatically, you need zero license. Like their revenue could go down a hundred pe…”
Harries: Conversational AI agents will completely replace inbound SDR roles
“The function of an inbound SDR is I'm sure the best ones are persuasive and they're friendly, but really the function is data collection, and so instead, one, why don't you just add that to the form in the first place? Well, the reason is people don't really w…”
Lemkin: 2026 will mark the end of entry-level sales jobs
“There'll be, this is the year where we will see the end of so many entry-level sales jobs. We still need AEs. We still need people knocking on doors. We do not need two-year-old kids sending emails. Those jobs will disappear.”
Lemkin: SpaceX, Canva, Databricks, and Anthropic will IPO in 2026
“I think we see four IPOs backloaded next year. SpaceX goes out first. Canva comes out of nowhere second. Databricks does it in the back half of the year because it's just time. Anthropic does it at the end of the year. OpenAI probably should have gone first, b…”
Calacanis: Standalone marketing software will disappear by 2026
“In 2026 26, there will be no such thing as marketing software that got Klaviyo public. Marketing sales support have already converged to one agent.”
Rory O'Driscoll: Anthropic will reach profitability and IPO while OpenAI faces overcommitment
“I think the difference between Anthropix and OpenAI is, OpenAI has more ambition, perhaps, but it's more likely to just get caught In the middle with commitments it can't meet. Whereas I think Entropic is very sensibly and boringly converging on profitability,…”
O'Driscoll: US fintechs will use anti-China messaging against foreign rivals
“Competitors are going to be the people who use it first. Because if I was an all-American fintech company, I'd have my all-American flag out there and say, these guys are a bunch of commies. They have commies looking at your data. We're, you know, our stuff is…”
Source code will become irrelevant as AI prompts replace programming, predicts Simionato
“But I think the code will become irrelevant, but I'm biased. I'm a PM. So I care about the prompt and the result. But I think that ultimately what you want to do is to deliver a great UX by giving the right commands.”
Neuralink will transform the world more than AI over 50 years
“I think Neuralink is the product, like the thing that can change the world the most in 50 years, including AI, in my opinion. So I know people love AI, I love AI, I use it every day, but I think that ultimately the way you perceive reality and the way it chang…”
Siddharth: AGI development will follow a slow, steady takeoff timeline
“It's innings one, and I believe in slow takeoff. I'm sorry to pour cold water on all the AI doomers that might be listening to this, but we are not in a rapid takeoff scenario. I believe in slow, steady takeoff for AGI and eventually super intelligence.”
Jason Lemkin: Salesforce Agentforce could render AI startups obsolete within two years
“Salesforce could be the next Google. It could be in 18 to 24 months. We could be like, oh my god, Agent Force crushed it. All these startups, we didn't need them because Agent Force is so good.”
Jason Lemkin: Most B2B software unicorns will fail transitioning to AI
“This is why I think most of our unicorns will fail. Because you've got to be as good or better than Owen to make this transition. Most of them are going to fail. When I look at so many of these B to B unicorns, they just, it's so hard to do both.”
Jason Lemkin: Generative Engine Optimization AI software is snake oil
“I view the pro what there is a category of snake oil AI of which geo is one of them. Okay. And I'll tell you why it's snake oil. And it's gonna die in 26 or 27.”
Shlomo: Vibe coding will become software's largest category, swallowing traditional SaaS
“I felt like in my eyes, this is going to be the largest category in, in software industry. Cause a lot of like existing categories that we're familiar with. And CRM and support systems and task management and project management and stuff like that are going to…”
Shlomo: Building custom CRMs via AI will soon beat buying Salesforce licenses
“And there would be a time, it might be in a few months, might be in a few years, where it will be easier to build your own Salesforce type of CRM than to actually buy a license to something off the shelf.”
Shlomo: SaaS companies requiring implementers will not survive the decade
“I think every software company that needs implementers, right, there's like a Salesforce implementer or whatever maybe in a decade from now is not going to make it.”
Max Altman predicts climate tech startups will not produce great VC returns
“Yeah, I think we wanted to be somewhat involved with it, and there were a lot of amazing founders building in it, and they're gonna build great things, but they're not gonna get us great VC returns.”
Randle: CoreWeave and AI cloud providers will eventually crash 70%
“I think at some point, like they'll probably, you know, Corweave and all these things will probably go down like 70%.”
Peets Refuses to Hire Inside Sales Reps Unwilling to Commute
“If a sales inside salesperson is not willing to make the sacrifice of a 30 minute commute every day to further his own career, I don't want that person.”
Lemkin: Harvey will improve next year and replace more legal associates
“Whatever Harvey is today, it's going to get better. And I guarantee you it's a better piece of software next year than it is at eight billion. Right. And it will replace more mediocre associates”
Cahn: Any AI bubble unwind will hit household stock portfolios, not banks
“What I think is going to be interesting if to the extent that the bubble unwinds at some point, it's going to be an equity unwind. And what that looks like is 40% of the S&P 500 is basically a bet on AI. And so to the extent that the bet unwinds, stock prices …”
Cahn: AI startups will win by hiring 23-to-25-year-old AI generalists
“I think that the new playbook for these AI startups is actually going to be much more about hire the AI generalist, this 23, 24, 25 year old who's really native in AI, really passionate about it, and I think those are the sort of the front lines that are going…”
Calacanis: Enterprise AI Buyer Demand Will Drop to 5% Within 24 Months
“They got the price of the vendor right, but the soft costs, the training, the onboarding, the business process change were the highest it's ever been in their lifetimes. They're not going to do that every year. And so we may go back to five percent being in ma…”
Calacanis: VCs will lose money on 80% of B2B AI investments
“VCs are gonna lose, like, 80% of their investments in AI B to B because they're ignoring these issues, and so be it.”
Calacanis: Offshore dev shops and WordPress agencies will completely disappear
“They'll all disappear. We don't need these crummy WordPress agencies and terrible offshore dev shops that never finish a project and charge you 20 or 50 grand. They're all going to be gone.”
Bouaziz predicts Deel will win its legal disputes with competitors
“I feel pretty confident that the same way we've been winning in the marketplace will win in the court of laws.”
Lloyd: Open-Source Models Will Not Win at the AI Frontier
“I don't think open either, if I'm being honest. The reason I don't think open, like, is that it's just so damn expensive to build these things, and so what's the economic incentive?”
O'Driscoll: Non-OpenAI and Anthropic AI startups won't raise needed capital
“I don't think it's a monopoly, but I think it's definitely an oligopoly. To be clear. So I think that, yes, the number two at Tropic clearly can. It's a differentiated number two with an overlapping, but strategy, but not, you know, one is winning in consumer,…”
O'Driscoll: Projected AI adoption rates for the next 5 years are overly optimistic
“I personally think that the rate of adoption forecast over the next four or five, that's implicit in all these data center assumptions, will in retrospect prove to be too optimistic.”
O'Driscoll: Meta's AI bet will mirror VR flop, not Instagram success
“If there was a Calci bet, and maybe I should check it that, you know, some version of this AI strategy will not produce meaningful revenue despite a twenty billion dollar burn and will look more like meta VR and less like Instagram and WhatsApp, two of the mos…”
Ross: Total AI ROI will exceed capital invested despite individual failures
“Right now, people are making more money than they're spending. It's just very lumpy. As an aggregate. Plenty of people are gonna lose their shirts, but overall, less money is gonna go in than is gonna come out.”
Ross: Europe will become a tourist economy without rapid AI energy expansion
“Then Europe's economy is going to be a tourist economy. People are going to come here to see the quaint old buildings, and that's going to be it.”
Jonathan Ross: AI will cause massive labor shortages, not mass unemployment
“I believe that AI is going to cause massive labor shortages. Yeah, I don't think we're gonna have enough people to fill all the jobs that are gonna be created.”
Lemkin: Meta's smart glasses have zero percent chance of success
“Zero percent chance they're a success.”
Taneja: AI risks hollowing out the service sector over ten years
“Imagine if every nurse and every lawyer and every accountant that works in London becomes a AI agent of some company in the United States in the next 10 years. You're going to hollow out a lot of your labor productivity and give it to a U S company or a Chines…”
Taneja: Anthropic's enterprise business will be bigger than OpenAI's
“I think their enterprise business I'd argue will be bigger than OpenAI if it already isn't already not having spent that much.”
Taneja: AI and robotics will eventually replace all human labor
“Over time is going to be most of it. And when robotics comes, it'll be all of it.”
Taneja: Stripe will become a $1 trillion company in 10 years
“I think Stripe's gonna be a trillion dollar company. He's gotta give it 10 years, you know, so I'm, we're, it's a compounding business that, you know, Patrick and John always say infrastructure is hard, but it also compounds, and they're sort of steadily just …”
Kaz Nejatian: Opendoor will be the most aggressive in-office public tech company
“Opendoor will be the most aggressive in-office public tech company.”
Reinforcement learning environments will subsume the entire economy
“RL environments will subsume the entire economy, because it doesn't make sense that humans would be doing monotonous, redundant work.”
Tech companies will employ more software engineers in five years, not fewer
“I think more. And the reason is that engineering is such an elastic role, right? Where if we could build a hundred times more software or say we make engineers 10 times more efficient, We would probably build a hundred times more software, right? And so far as…”