The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4,908 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 846 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Masad: AI coding models are approaching a performance plateau
“And we're, you know, we're approaching a certain plateau in how good coding models could get.”
Masad: Traditional IDEs have no future and are effectively dead
“I think for all intents and purposes, IDEs are dead. I think the, you know, the limp along because again, some engineers just love that, that control, but there's no future in them and that there's no one's going to be asking for like the latest feature of lik…”
Levie: There will be more lawyers in 5 years than today
“There are going to be more lawyers in the next five years than we have today.”
Geoffrey Woo: AI Commoditizes Technical VC Skills, Making Taste Dominant
“So, my sense is that The software and like the classic smart people stuff gets commoditized, and the attention, the taste, the culture side gets more and more important. So I think the world goes into our favor versus away.”
Rory O'Driscoll: AI will not displace 50% of white-collar workers
“I don't think we're going to unemployed, 50% of white collar workers. I think it's madness. I think it has some legitimate dangers in cyber security and bioterrorism, but they're manageable.”
Lemkin is ready to write off portfolio startups failing to adopt AI
“Like you know, I'm ready to move on to the new world and I'm almost, and I'm frankly ready to write off a lot of portfolio companies and a lot of public companies. It's time to move on guys. If you're not going to get there in April of 20, 26, then so be it. S…”
Hassabis: AGI impact will be 10x the Industrial Revolution at 10x speed
“I sometimes quantify the coming of AGI as 10 times the industrial revolution at 10 times the speed.”
Raanan: Venture market imbalance will lead to catastrophe and wasted capital
“I think it's going to end up with some serious catastrophe for many of the players. The market is not balanced. It means that a lot of that cash that's flowing into the market would be wasted.”
Lemkin: VCs backing late-stage AI startups below Anthropic face zero exits
“So many folks sub-anthropic are going to get their arses burned because they'll end up in the dead zone. They'll have great companies without great IPOs and zero M and A opportunities.”
Lemkin: Existing SaaS and tech products will be obsolete in 12 months
“They, in 12 months, their current products will be obsolete.”
Rajaram: B2B software switching costs will drop to zero within two years
“I think switching costs is less going to go to essentially zero because over the next one or two years, ability to port data, your data as a business or consumer from any ecosystem to another ecosystem is going to be very easy.”
Lemkin: Corporate AI Data Center Budgets Will Come From Cutting Junior Roles
“I think getting rid of juniors is where we get budget for these data centers, in part.”
Lemkin: US government will block Anthropic indefinitely regardless of court rulings
“The government's going to say you're either going to agree to this or we're going to freeze you out of the US economy. And it doesn't matter what a court says. Because they'll come up with another justification. There'll be another one. There'll be a different…”
Lemkin: Junior role elimination will spread to sales by 2027
“This is my big worry for 20, 27 is it happens. It's going to be true in sales. It's already true in support.”
O'Driscoll: AI will not drive overall US unemployment above 10%
“Over the, again, I want to be over the medium term, the technology takes longer to diffuse than we in Silicon Valley allow, and people are more adaptable. So over the medium, I'm not, I don't see any kind of 10% plus tech of an unemployment.”
Lemkin: Public software companies will perform worse throughout 2026
“I think all, almost all the public software companies are just going to do worse and worse for the rest of this year.”
Lemkin: Most public software CEOs will abandon growth targets in 2026
“Which I think most public software companies will get to during the course this year. They will give up. The CEOs will give up. This is my point. They will give up on returning to growth.”
Zinman: Vibe coding will not disrupt software companies
“So I think at the end of the day, vibe coding is amazing technology, but I don't think it's going to disrupt software companies.”
Zinman: ChatGPT and Claude won't win enterprise AI orchestration
“I don't think that ChatGPT or Gemini on Tropic are going to do it, because going back to my the second theory that we discussed, you know, of course, you know, people are buying a Tropic Claude, they're buying ChatGPT, but it's not a tool where you work with a…”
Zinman: Software built on LLMs will grow exponentially, not shrink
“I think if anything, we're going to see an excess of software being built on top of the LLMs, not less, exponentially more because the opportunity is so massive and the time is so huge.”
Zinman: Monday.com has hit bottom and will grow from here
“And if you ask me today how I feel great because as I told you, we hit the bottom or maybe close to the bottom. And from here we can only grow and focus on execution.”
Jerry Murdock: Autonomous agents will drive shift from Nvidia GPUs to ASICs
“And my guess is this will lead to the rise of open source models more, more proficiently. And that it's going to lead to the rise of ASICS chips, because what's going to happen with ASICS is you're going to put the model on the chip. You know, ASICS is going t…”
Jerry Murdock: Legacy SaaS vendors face severe disruption within 18 months
“But if you're not making your software for autonomous agents today, you're going to be challenged in the future. Maybe it's six months, maybe a year, maybe 18 months, but you're going to be severely challenged if you still think human beings are going to buy y…”
Jerry Murdock: AI job displacement could decide the next US presidential election
“I'm here to say that that is going to be a major issue On the next presidential election, it could decide the election. It'll be one of the most important things because there's no easy answer.”
Jerry Murdock: UBI will become a ballot question within two years
“When this happens, we're going to see dramatic change, and I think politically, the minimal viable income may become a reality or at least a ballot question in two and a half years.”
Jerry Murdock: AI disruption will cause tech private equity firms to fail
“And so they'll be stories like that. I don't know about Bravo or anybody else, but they'll definitely be PE firms that end up like Forsman Little.”
Jason Lemkin: Value capture by AI agents will push SaaS incumbents into terminal decline
“I believe the agents are going to own enough of the value that, that that just owning less of the value in your space can create terminal decline.”
Lemkin: SaaS companies adding minor AI features will be irrelevant in two years
“You're going to go out of business and you're not going to fail because your customers are going to renew, but your growth is going to fall so far that you become irrelevant in two years.”
Lemkin: Shopify and Monday will be killed by vertical AI startups
“So they're going to get killed by the startup that does it. They're going to get killed. Killed.”
Stebbings: AI and Waymo could displace 30-40M workers in four years
“If we want to add in Waymo and what it'll do for self-driving within a four year period, Gosh, I think you could see 30 to forty million people.”
Lemkin: A major tech leader will lay off 50% of staff in one day within 12 months
“I said, one of the leaders in the next 12 months is going to do an Elon Musk and just cut half their team in one day. They're going to lay off half the entire company.”
Lemkin: AI tools will equal human design quality within 18 months
“I would just be shocked if at some point in the next eight to 18 months, a Claude Code can't automatically make designs that are as elegant, as beautiful as a designer can. Because you already can in some custom LLMs for images, you can build epic images. I ju…”
Emberikos: AI automation will create more software builders in five years
“Yeah. And I, you know, sometimes we change what terms mean, right? Like the term computer now refers to something else, but now we have the term software engineer. And so I definitely think we'll have many more builders.”
Emberikos: AI will not eliminate enterprise sales and marketing teams
“But going back to the sales and marketing thing, like, I don't think that goes away because I think that's as, like I said, I think that's just gotten harder as the markets, any given market gets more competitive with more software out there.”
Lemkin: Fortune 500 will actively replace human employees with AI by year-end
“By the end of this year, that, that train is going to be so far out of the station that, that these growth numbers will be jaw dropping because we will decide enterprises will the fortune 500 or global 2000 will decide we are replacing humans with AI.”
Lemkin: Shopify's storefront software interface may become obsolete within two years
“That software in two years may be obsolete.”
Siemiatkowski: Klarna may have under 2,000 employees by 2030
“No, it may very well be even less than that.”
Siemiatkowski: Software Creation Cost Is Heading to Zero
“You should think that software cost of creating software is going down to zero. That's it. So and that means that like everyone will be able to generate software at any point of time. So it is a massive change. And I was a hundred percent con, you know, convic…”
Siemiatkowski: SaaS revenue multiples could decline to 1x-2x price-to-sales
“But if you look at utilities, normal companies that are more utility, They may trade at one to two. So I, from that perspective, you would argue there is still some unfortunate potential to come down even further. Is it going to be, look at Chegg in the US, ri…”
Stebbings: 20VC will not invest in per-seat software pricing models
“If they sell per seat, we're not doing it. We need to replace jobs. Like labor displacement is what we're investing into. And that's the only way that we can actually return the amount of money that we need to now to make funds worth it.”
Siemiatkowski: X will eventually become the trusted source of information
“And I think it speaks to Elon's vision of X, that over time it can become the trusted source of information.”
Stebbings: Cursor could lose half its revenue this year to Claude Code
“I think there's a chance that Cursor loses half of their revenue this year with the cannibalization of them by claw code.”
Cohen: Form-based software like Salesforce will be obsolete within 10 years
“I think I called out Salesforce back then, as I cannot imagine people using something like this in the next 10 years. I think AI accelerates this.”
Cohen: Navan will ultimately capture the entire corporate travel market
“And I think as the, as long as we will service our customers and our users, the business will continue to gain share. We're going to take the entire market. I really believe in it.”
Lemkin: US government will backstop AI data center spend within 24 months
“I wouldn't be shocked if in the next 24 months there are essentially government government backstops for some of this spend.”
Lemkin: Tesla is months away from allowing owners to profit off robotaxis
“As soon as this really works, and maybe it's only single digit months away, he has millions of people who could be paid more than their lease price to allow the car into the fleet. And when he said this a decade ago, it sounded effing insane. He said that your…”