The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 4,908 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 846 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Macdonald: In 15-20 Years, Nobody Will Own a Car or License
“Which is why I do think in some future world, maybe not five years, but 15 or 20 years, Everyone's going to be like Harry. Nobody's going to own a car. Nobody's going to have their driver's license because you'll be able to get around. And I think bikes and sc…”
Waymo and Tesla Will Eventually Have to Partner With Uber
“I think ultimately it's in both of their interests to put their vehicles on our network, even if they have their own robo taxi apps or their own one P apps, even if they work with our competitors on the rideshare side or on the delivery side. I think everyone …”
The era of no-code software is slowly ending due to AI
“The era of no code, of things that we can, humans can do without engineering resources, it's slowly winding down. And if it's in chat, GBT, man, I'm just worried.”
Anthropic will IPO soon after pulling ahead of OpenAI's ChatGPT
“They will go public because this is peak brass ring moment, and you know, you could argue the trends in 27 are tougher. You've pulled ahead of ChatGPT, so just put a nail in the entropic pit, right? You've pulled ahead of ChatGPT comfortably, OpenAI, to a poin…”
Any startup investment not run by a founder will be a zero
“Any investment I've made that is not run by a founder is a zero. It's going to be a zero in this age. It's going to be a zero. I look across, now you, we have different portfolios, but the ones I have that are not run by founders, whether they're at twenty mil…”
Stebbings: Sam Altman and Dario Amodei will successfully lobby for AI restrictions
“I just think Sam Altman is someone who I would never, ever bet against, and I think he's the best politician in the world, and I think when he says something, he says it with intent, and when he says we should give five percent away to the administration, he's…”
Angelopoulos: Open-source AI pressure could cause insolvency for leading frontier labs
“And I think that the reason to be worried is because if the open source ecosystem somehow makes the cost saving opportunity for businesses much more salient and therefore decreases the revenue of companies like OpenAI and Anthropic within the enterprise, that …”
Lemkin: Open-source AI models will bypass Nvidia's CUDA platform
“He's got to go frontier and open and open is dangerous. Open doesn't need CUDA. Open is cheaper and it's lower margins. Open will bypass him, but he's got it.”
Lemkin: AI agent unpredictability will strengthen US bans on foreign open weights
“I think these models are very risky. I use them every day. I love it. And I think it's an argument to keep the open weight out of the US. It's gonna favor the ban because we can't, we have no idea what these models are gonna do.”
Lemkin: Every company will suffer an LLM agent breach within 24 months
“I believe that every company in the next 24 months will have a security breach due to an LLM agent. Every single company.”
Open-source models will not displace top foundation models like Anthropic
“I think the foundation models, let's say specifically Anthropic, have such special models. This can be hard for somebody to just kind of say, I've used open source with my data. It's going to be functional and positive for some amount of what you're doing, but…”
Sub-$100M boutique seed funds will be the worst-performing VC category
“I think one of the worst performing groups in terms of venture in this vintage will actually be the small boutique seed funds, which is what every single LP that you speak to today, Matt, wants. Every LP. This is the funniest thing. Every LP wants San Francisc…”
Nitski: Forward-deployed AI services are only a short-term enterprise trend
“I think it's the future for the short term as the knowledge of how to use AI gets disseminated throughout industry. We have basically a concentration of a bunch of people in San Francisco who really know how to deploy agents, eval agents, Be AI first in engine…”
Lin Qiao: AI future will feature millions of specialized models, not AGI
“I really believe the future will not be a few small number of AGI models dominating the world. I really believe the future will be, it may be scary, but I think that's true, it will be millions of specialized models, one per application, per use case.”
Curative Headcount Will Shrink In Short Term Due To AI
“We're about 650 people now. In five years we'll probably be bigger. In the short term I think we're going to be quite a bit smaller.”
Lemkin: Legacy pre-AI SaaS companies will die when their contracts renew
“I think when the renewals come, they all just die like Marketo. They're just all gonna die.”
Lemkin: Adobe's Marketo is in terminal decay and heading to zero revenue
“It is going to zero. It is, but it is one of the slowest decays you can get, right? Because moving off a marketing automation system in the enterprise is very slow, but it is without question going to zero. There are no net new logos and everyone hates it.”
Abrahami: LLMs will not replace white-collar jobs because they lack reasoning
“I would not be That concern with LLM is replacing every kind of a white color jobs. That's not going to happen. It's not that smart. You keep making silly mistakes. It's not very good. Actually, it's not very good at reasoning. It's very good at collecting dat…”
Jain: The world's greatest companies will not operate with only 100 employees
“And the, I don't think the world's greatest companies are going to be companies with a hundred people”
Lemkin: Microsoft's enterprise AI deployment strategy will fail
“I think this is going to fail because I don't think there is enough talent To do what we want to do in the enterprise. The idea makes sense to on a spreadsheet. It makes sense. Sad is smarter than me, but I, my today, my experience is it's going to fail with a…”
Arora: Companies will cut G&A headcount by half within three years
“My rule of thumb is that in the next three years, we'll probably have half the people in GNA type activities in companies. Things like marketing, things like finance, things like HR, because there's a lot of process management there, and a lot of process manag…”
Arora: AI will increase enterprise demand for technical and sales resources
“People believe we're going to have less people working because AI is going to take over our jobs. I don't believe that. I think what's going to happen is you can'forward imagine the number of people on my team who want more technical resources, more AI savvy r…”
Standalone AI model builders and token resellers have no viable business
“The output tokens, if you're literally just a reseller of model tokens, you have no business. Because the model will get commoditized. So even if you're a model builder, you don't have a business.”
Micron might surpass Meta in valuation within 12 months
“It might not be inconceivable that Micron, the supplier of HPMs, might be more valuable than Meta in the next six to 12 months.”
Grinberg: Coding speed and syntax memorization no longer matter for engineers
“And the parts of engineering that become less important are funny enough, the things that the Silicon Valley has really bragged about a lot, which is like, Competition winning or like Olympiad type. Are you like as fast as possible at coding? Are you, do you m…”
Lauritzen: Legora is avoiding hiring remote engineers to prioritize in-person collaboration
“Well, we're very opinionated about who we are and who we aren't. We, if you're a great engineer and you want to be remote, then you probably also want to work on very isolated problems, and that's, that can be fine. We'll, we'll, we probably have those, and we…”
Calacanis: Companies will choose spending on AI tokens over humans by year-end
“I really do think by the end of the year, we're going to choose tokens over humans.”
Calacanis: Software QA departments will be destroyed by 2027 due to AI
“I think what will happen going into 2027 is an engineering QA departments will get destroyed because you'll be like, I got six QA engineers.”
Calacanis: AI Startups Will Eventually Re-Bloat to Historic Headcounts
“And so even, and so our startups that we're excited about, I think ultimately they will achieve the same historic level of bloat, maybe half the size, but they will get as bloated as they can because they will have much larger, broader product lines.”
Rory O'Driscoll: AI Will Not Boost GDP Productivity Growth Above 2%
“Or where I stand, the statistic, the average over the last 200 years has been two percent. It'll stay at two percent.”
Rory O'Driscoll: AI will not cause mass white-collar unemployment in 3 years
“And we've grown to accept that, that, you know, we're all here in the Valley with a plan. To automate white collar work such that there's going to be mass unemployment, according to these folks who are totally wrong, in my opinion, in three years, and all the …”
AI Models Will Clone End-to-End SaaS Apps Within 12 Months
“Those capabilities are going to exist in the models in the next 12 months.”
Foody: Most businesses will spend more on AI tokens than headcount
“And I think most businesses are going to look like that.”
O'Driscoll: Politically Savvy Regulators Will Outmaneuver AI Leaders
“We have people who are brilliant scientists who politically are utter morons, and the people who are utter morons at AI but brilliant at politics are gonna have us for lunch.”
Lemkin: Tech Leaders Must Hire Thousands to Avoid Social Unrest
“We're gonna have to reflate and hire thousands and thousands of people per tech leader to avoid social unrest.”
O'Driscoll: SaaS will never regain public market focus from AI
“The SaaS businesses are amazing, but the AI businesses are an order of magnitude of maybe two order of magnitudes larger and are at You know, earlier in their growth life cycle. So you're never going to get the attention back on you again.”
O'Driscoll: Politicians will punish Sam Altman and AI industry within 3 years
“And the people who are utter morons at AI but brilliant at politics are going to have us for lunch. That's the movie in the next three years. They're going to have Sam for lunch because he's lied to them as far as they're concerned, and they're going to have t…”
Lemkin: Current tech layoffs will be worse than any in our lifetimes
“I actually think It's worse than that Rory, because I think these are going to be by far the layoffs that Harry just rattled off and the ones for this year, I believe are going to be far worse than any layoffs in our lifetimes. And I'll tell you why. And I kno…”
Browder: Growing tech wealth disparity could trigger a revolution in our lifetime
“I think, actually, there could be a revolution in our lifetime.”
Josh Browder: Anthropic will reach $1 trillion in revenue
“I think Anthropic will get to a trillion in revenue.”
O'Driscoll: Software valuations will never reach 20x revenue multiples again
“Give me 30% growth, give me profits, give me a story that's got some future in it, and I'll get you back to five times. I'll never give you 20 times again. I won't fall for that one this time.”
Lemkin: Traditional marketing automation software obsolete within one year
“I don't think in a year we're going to need any traditional marketing automation software. It's too dated. It doesn't work for agents marketing.”
Tobi Lütke: Restricting youth AI access will drive kids to Chinese models
“AI has so many naysayers, like, we are gonna tell kids they can't use AI. Kids will not stop using AI. What they will do is they will download Chinese models, and you will never, ever, ever get another high school essay about Tiananmen Square as a consequence …”
Lemkin: AI agents render Marketo, Outreach, and Salesloft worthless
“They're not going to recommend Marketo for your agent to do marketing automation, ok? In fact, it mocked Marketo outreach and sales loft as tools useless to agents. Ok, this API grid. They said there is no place in the, an agent will never send an email throug…”
Lemkin: Blocked SaaS founders will increasingly pass company control to peer CEOs
“This is a micro trend that I think is going to accelerate this year is founders giving the keys to their friends, not completely quitting, like eight months after an accelerator that didn't work out, but I mean, it's just, I'm at 40,000,050 1,000,020 million, …”
Adam Foroughi: Companies Will Not Need Separate Product Managers and Engineers
“And so I do think the role of product should end up looking a lot like it does at our company over time is that either your product people become engineers or your engineers become product people, but you don't need both.”
Adam Foroughi Predicts More Tech Layoffs Over the Next Couple of Years
“My guess is you're going to see a lot more tech layoffs over the next couple of years as companies really start understanding that not laying people off creates A blockade to actually getting to this AI native state.”
Adam Foroughi: AppLovin Employees Who Avoid AI Technology Will Be Fired
“If you avoid utilizing these technologies, you're not, and you're gonna get fired, and that's life, and so we demand that the people who are at the company are adopting these technologies rapidly to create more output, but we don't shy away from different diff…”