The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 974 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 974 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Curative Headcount Will Shrink In Short Term Due To AI
“We're about 650 people now. In five years we'll probably be bigger. In the short term I think we're going to be quite a bit smaller.”
Lemkin: Adobe's Marketo is in terminal decay and heading to zero revenue
“It is going to zero. It is, but it is one of the slowest decays you can get, right? Because moving off a marketing automation system in the enterprise is very slow, but it is without question going to zero. There are no net new logos and everyone hates it.”
Arora: Companies will cut G&A headcount by half within three years
“My rule of thumb is that in the next three years, we'll probably have half the people in GNA type activities in companies. Things like marketing, things like finance, things like HR, because there's a lot of process management there, and a lot of process manag…”
Calacanis: Software QA departments will be destroyed by 2027 due to AI
“I think what will happen going into 2027 is an engineering QA departments will get destroyed because you'll be like, I got six QA engineers.”
Rory O'Driscoll: AI Will Not Boost GDP Productivity Growth Above 2%
“Or where I stand, the statistic, the average over the last 200 years has been two percent. It'll stay at two percent.”
Stebbings: Menlo to make $10B carry on Anthropic, Founders Fund more on SpaceX
“Menlo will make ten billion dollars in carry Spot will too, plus Founders Fund will make more than that from SpaceX.”
Rory O'Driscoll: AI will not cause mass white-collar unemployment in 3 years
“And we've grown to accept that, that, you know, we're all here in the Valley with a plan. To automate white collar work such that there's going to be mass unemployment, according to these folks who are totally wrong, in my opinion, in three years, and all the …”
AI Models Will Clone End-to-End SaaS Apps Within 12 Months
“Those capabilities are going to exist in the models in the next 12 months.”
Meta Offered an AI Candidate $20 Million Per Year in Cash
“There was someone I was hiring the other day, and he had an offer for twenty million dollars in cash per year from TBD, and like that's the kind of stuff we run into on a regular basis.”
Josh Browder: Anthropic will reach $1 trillion in revenue
“I think Anthropic will get to a trillion in revenue.”
Lemkin: Traditional marketing automation software obsolete within one year
“I don't think in a year we're going to need any traditional marketing automation software. It's too dated. It doesn't work for agents marketing.”
Adam Foroughi: AppLovin Employees Who Avoid AI Technology Will Be Fired
“If you avoid utilizing these technologies, you're not, and you're gonna get fired, and that's life, and so we demand that the people who are at the company are adopting these technologies rapidly to create more output, but we don't shy away from different diff…”
Levie: There will be more lawyers in 5 years than today
“There are going to be more lawyers in the next five years than we have today.”
Rory O'Driscoll: AI will not displace 50% of white-collar workers
“I don't think we're going to unemployed, 50% of white collar workers. I think it's madness. I think it has some legitimate dangers in cyber security and bioterrorism, but they're manageable.”
Lemkin: VCs backing late-stage AI startups below Anthropic face zero exits
“So many folks sub-anthropic are going to get their arses burned because they'll end up in the dead zone. They'll have great companies without great IPOs and zero M and A opportunities.”
Lemkin: Junior role elimination will spread to sales by 2027
“This is my big worry for 20, 27 is it happens. It's going to be true in sales. It's already true in support.”
O'Driscoll: AI will not drive overall US unemployment above 10%
“Over the, again, I want to be over the medium term, the technology takes longer to diffuse than we in Silicon Valley allow, and people are more adaptable. So over the medium, I'm not, I don't see any kind of 10% plus tech of an unemployment.”
Zinman: Monday.com has hit bottom and will grow from here
“And if you ask me today how I feel great because as I told you, we hit the bottom or maybe close to the bottom. And from here we can only grow and focus on execution.”
Jerry Murdock: AI disruption will cause tech private equity firms to fail
“And so they'll be stories like that. I don't know about Bravo or anybody else, but they'll definitely be PE firms that end up like Forsman Little.”
Lemkin: Shopify and Monday will be killed by vertical AI startups
“So they're going to get killed by the startup that does it. They're going to get killed. Killed.”
Stebbings: AI and Waymo could displace 30-40M workers in four years
“If we want to add in Waymo and what it'll do for self-driving within a four year period, Gosh, I think you could see 30 to forty million people.”
Lemkin: A major tech leader will lay off 50% of staff in one day within 12 months
“I said, one of the leaders in the next 12 months is going to do an Elon Musk and just cut half their team in one day. They're going to lay off half the entire company.”
Emberikos: AI automation will create more software builders in five years
“Yeah. And I, you know, sometimes we change what terms mean, right? Like the term computer now refers to something else, but now we have the term software engineer. And so I definitely think we'll have many more builders.”
Emberikos: AI will not eliminate enterprise sales and marketing teams
“But going back to the sales and marketing thing, like, I don't think that goes away because I think that's as, like I said, I think that's just gotten harder as the markets, any given market gets more competitive with more software out there.”
Lemkin: Chamath Palihapitiya has been sued by all his former partners
“Chamath, all his ex-partners have sued him. Mamoon sued them. The Grok guys he sued.”
Siemiatkowski: SaaS revenue multiples could decline to 1x-2x price-to-sales
“But if you look at utilities, normal companies that are more utility, They may trade at one to two. So I, from that perspective, you would argue there is still some unfortunate potential to come down even further. Is it going to be, look at Chegg in the US, ri…”
Stebbings: 20VC will not invest in per-seat software pricing models
“If they sell per seat, we're not doing it. We need to replace jobs. Like labor displacement is what we're investing into. And that's the only way that we can actually return the amount of money that we need to now to make funds worth it.”
Cohen: Form-based software like Salesforce will be obsolete within 10 years
“I think I called out Salesforce back then, as I cannot imagine people using something like this in the next 10 years. I think AI accelerates this.”
Cohen: Navan will ultimately capture the entire corporate travel market
“And I think as the, as long as we will service our customers and our users, the business will continue to gain share. We're going to take the entire market. I really believe in it.”
Lemkin: Tesla is months away from allowing owners to profit off robotaxis
“As soon as this really works, and maybe it's only single digit months away, he has millions of people who could be paid more than their lease price to allow the car into the fleet. And when he said this a decade ago, it sounded effing insane. He said that your…”
Zeev will not change deployment pace for LP vintage preferences
“I'm going to do my thing, and if it works for them, fine, and if not, they can opt themselves out, and some of them have, and it's fine. Good people opted out, and it's fine. I'm not going to do things differently.”
O'Driscoll: Google Search ad dollars will shift to OpenAI
“Their cash cow, which kicks off 200 and forty-odd billion a year of revenue, which is the ads business, Isn't the best product on the market anymore, and some of those dollars will go to open AI, and because it's better real estate.”
Weinberg: AI won't replace junior lawyers, law firms will do more work
“I don't think so. I think we'll just get more work.”
Lemkin: SpaceX, Canva, Databricks, and Anthropic will IPO in 2026
“I think we see four IPOs backloaded next year. SpaceX goes out first. Canva comes out of nowhere second. Databricks does it in the back half of the year because it's just time. Anthropic does it at the end of the year. OpenAI probably should have gone first, b…”
Calacanis: Standalone marketing software will disappear by 2026
“In 2026 26, there will be no such thing as marketing software that got Klaviyo public. Marketing sales support have already converged to one agent.”
Rory O'Driscoll: Anthropic will reach profitability and IPO while OpenAI faces overcommitment
“I think the difference between Anthropix and OpenAI is, OpenAI has more ambition, perhaps, but it's more likely to just get caught In the middle with commitments it can't meet. Whereas I think Entropic is very sensibly and boringly converging on profitability,…”
Lemkin: Drift Is Completely Dead After Being Banned by Salesforce
“They kicked Drift off five months ago. Drift will never come back. It is dead. It is completely dead.”
Jason Lemkin: Most B2B software unicorns will fail transitioning to AI
“This is why I think most of our unicorns will fail. Because you've got to be as good or better than Owen to make this transition. Most of them are going to fail. When I look at so many of these B to B unicorns, they just, it's so hard to do both.”
Jason Lemkin: Generative Engine Optimization AI software is snake oil
“I view the pro what there is a category of snake oil AI of which geo is one of them. Okay. And I'll tell you why it's snake oil. And it's gonna die in 26 or 27.”
Tunguz: Nvidia revenue concentration is 10x worse than Lucent during dot-com bubble
“So Nvidia, two customers for Nvidia represent more than 40% of revenues. Four percent represent more than 50% of revenues. I went back and looked at the dot-com era, the networking companies. NVIDIA is 10 times more concentrated in terms of revenue than Lucent…”
Randle: CoreWeave and AI cloud providers will eventually crash 70%
“I think at some point, like they'll probably, you know, Corweave and all these things will probably go down like 70%.”
Stebbings: Mercor hit $500M revenue run rate in 17 months
“Now this company has gone to five hundred million in revenue, faster than anyone else, I believe, in history. I think it was 17 months.”
Calacanis: VCs will lose money on 80% of B2B AI investments
“VCs are gonna lose, like, 80% of their investments in AI B to B because they're ignoring these issues, and so be it.”
Calacanis: AI companies built models by stealing all my copyrighted content
“Just like in the beginning to get these off the ground, we had to trample copyrights and destroy everyone's IP rights. All of my IP is stolen. Everything I've written, all my videos were taken without my consent.”
Bouaziz predicts Deel will win its legal disputes with competitors
“I feel pretty confident that the same way we've been winning in the marketplace will win in the court of laws.”