why aren't all 54 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 4 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Held up
Lemkin: A $100 billion startup exit will happen within a year
“The big exits will solve it, right? The whizzes and the, I mean, we thought whizz was big. Now we have cursor. Now I'm going to win the bet of a hundred billion dollar exit in the next year.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2031
Raanan: Within five years, a startup will make Wiz's growth look slow
“I'm, Confident that five years from now, I, I'll be able to show you, I'll be able to demonstrate another team that, you know, showing that actually wheeze was a slog and they can move much faster and they've done whatever it is.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Wiz's marketing team stopped growing headcount because AI 50x'd designer output
“I don't need to grow anymore in people. Cause like what the designer can do now, one designer can do 10 X more output, if not 50 X more output.”
Disclosure
Wiz saved millions by building internal AI tools instead of buying SaaS
“I definitely think that we've been able to save ourselves a lot of SaaS requests that asked us for millions of dollars, and I can give you names of specific products after, and just build it internally.”
Insight
Hypergrowth startup employees must evolve their roles every three to four months
“If you wake up today and what you do in your day is exactly or very similar to what you were doing three months ago or four months ago, you're definitely not doing the right thing. It doesn't add up.”
Disclosure
Wiz invests heavily in unquantifiable brand efforts over pipeline metrics
“And we spend a lot of our efforts on those types of things, and I have no way of tying it back to a number. And I don't really care because I think that's what really matters.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wiz has never needed product refactoring due to its scale-first design
“That's a mindset that, from the early days of Twiz, made us build everything in a sense, in a way that, you know, we've never had to refactor things. We've built for the scale we have today.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wiz Is the Only Startup to Successfully Launch Enterprise-First
“Wiz is the only one I've seen do it successfully, where they started in the enterprise.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wiz's $30B Outcome Returned Only One-Third of Insight's Fund
“Wiz, which was obviously a, you know, 30, thirty one billion dollar outcome, you know, the GDP of the country. And it returned a third of Insight's fund.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2030
O'Driscoll: Jeff Horing won't be fired over $100M Builder.ai loss
“I think Jeff Hoering himself, the founder was involved, who's made scads of money. I think he was a big investor, an early investor in Wiz. I don't think Jeff is going to lose his job for dropping a hundred million dollars when he's returned a couple of billio…”
Assertion Partly supported
Shah: Wiz grew faster in four years than any company ever
“Bottoms up, the, you know, the business in, in, in four years, the company has grown faster than any company of all time with unbelievable productivity in different segments, in different geographies.”
Opinion
Khan: Wiz likely made a mistake rejecting Google's $23 billion buyout offer
“When a business is very small, it's very easy to look at the business saying that, hey, this could be a great business, and in a ways very much could be, I don't know, but the reality is, you know, how many times we have seen that every 50 companies we look at…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wiz is the only startup to successfully start enterprise-first
“Wiz is the only one I've seen do it successfully where they started in the enterprise, right?”
Opinion
Lemkin: Wiz acquisition faces greater antitrust hurdles than Adobe-Figma
“If Figma could be blocked, I actually think Wiz is, is more competitive to, there's more antitrust, even though I don't think it should be blocked remotely,”
Opinion
Lemkin: Google's $23B buyout offer for Wiz was not overpriced
“So I don't think, ironically, it's, I don't think it was overpriced. I do think it might have been a good deal for the investors because you avoid so much dilution and risk.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Wiz must IPO within 18 months after rejecting Google bid
“When the CEOs in, in, in, in the letter to the team says, we're going to go public instead, you got to do it in the next 18 months or so.”
Opinion
Peets: Wiz Built World-Class Sales Org Under Dolly Rogic
“Wiz had a world-class sales organization under Dolly Rogic.”
Opinion
Degnan: MongoDB and Wiz sales leaders excel at developing MEDDIC-trained talent
“Because their sales leaders although tough are incredible, you know, medic disciples who develop the crap out of their people and hold them accountable, and that's what I'm looking for.”
Disclosure
Raanan: I regret selling every single secondary share in Wiz early
“Look, it's not a secret that, you know, we at Cyberstarts we have sold secondary shares at companies like Weez early on. By the way, I regret, I sold every single share at Weez. I regret it because, you know, if I sold it right now, I would make I would, Show …”
Disclosure
Wiz CEO Asaf Rappaport was intentionally generous with employee and investor equity
“I always remember his true approach of being generous with everything, being generous with the equity he gives employees, being generous with the equity he gives investors, and it's because he believed from the get-go he's going to build a big pie, and if it's…”
Disclosure
Early Wiz enterprise deals included unlimited usage terms still honored today
“I made the worst deals in the universe. It's like, to this day, there are salespeople in Liz that hate me because some big customer has, like, A terrible, unlimited thing I gave them in the early days, because it's not about trying to win on the revenue from t…”
Insight
Humor connects with enterprise cybersecurity buyers better than fear
“Humor is something that naturally connects People more than fear.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wiz delivers enterprise security value within 15 minutes of deployment
“We always believed that time to value is value, and so the way Wiz works is very fast, meaning you connect this to your environment, and it's an enterprise security product, so those things are expected to take months and months and months for deployments and …”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Wiz is the security provider for most leading AI frontier labs
“TodayWiz is the security solution for most of the frontier labs.”
Assertion Partly supported
Wiz Acquisition Features the Largest M&A Breakup Fee Ever
“You look at the Wiz deal, There's a 10% breakup fee there. Largest breakup fee ever for an M&A transaction.”
Assertion Partly supported
Index Ventures Is the Largest Shareholder in Figma, Dream Games, and Wiz
“Largest shareholder in Figma, largest shareholder in Dream Games, largest shareholder in Wiz you know, second largest shareholder in Scale.ai, Revolut.”
Disclosure
G Squared is actively buying secondary shares in Anthropic, OpenAI, and Databricks
“A lot. A lot. And I've got appetite for more. Same with OpenAI. Same with Databricks. Wiz.”
What-if
The venture downturn allowed G Squared to build a large Wiz position
“Normalized scenario, we would have never been able to build this position in Wiz because it would, it was a hockey stick from day one, but the capital availability, even to the best assets in the world, wasn't great for 18 months.”
Assertion Partly supported
Stebbings: Insight generated $2.6B Wiz return in $8.5B fund
“It was a 2.6 billion dollar reported return to them in an eight and a half billion dollar fund, which is like one of the best investments of all time.”
Assertion Open
Hulme: Wiz's $32B acquisition valuation is ~7% of Israel's GDP
“The Wiz Acquisition, thirty two billion. That's like seven percent of Israel's GDP.”
Disclosure
Shah: All Index investments in Datadog and Wiz were high priced
“Every investment in Datadog I was at a high price every, it's not an outcome yet, of course, but every investment in Wiz has been at a very high price. I feel great about each of those decisions.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lemkin: Wiz could execute a successful IPO within 90 days
“Going IPO for them, I think it, it'll be no big deal. Like, they can go IPO anytime. They can go IPO in 90 days if they're, if their financials are clean and they'll get a good valuation, it'll be fine.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Lemkin: Wiz will reach $1B ARR within 12 months
“This company will be at a billion in a blink of an eye, so let's, let's just value it at a billion. It's gonna be there in 12 months, 14 months, nine months, it's a billion forward.”
Assertion Supported
Raanan: Wiz co-founder Assaf Rappaport knew nothing about cloud security in 2012
“Now, did Asaf know anything about cloud and cloud security in 2012? I guarantee you not.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
CMO Raz Herzberg claims she has never lost a deal at Wiz
“I've never lost a deal.”
What-if
Wiz should have expanded into adjacent product areas sooner
“If we went backwards, it would have been more clear to me that we should have said, oh yeah, we're going to expand there. But we still really weren't sure we were. So I think those are places where, in retrospect, we could have been more open.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Most Wiz platform logins come from developers, not security teams
“And so most of our logins are from development teams.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wiz operates without middle management layers or long strategy documents
“There's no managers for managers. There's no long documents.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wiz co-founder and VP of Engineering Roy Reznik still writes code
“To this day, Roy, our co-founder and VP of engineering, writes code.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wiz built an internal AI sales bot used daily by every salesperson
“Marilyn is our internal go to market chat bot, and it's a multi-agent system I'built with one engineer. I've never had something I've built that had like a better ratio of impact to effort. So this is like me and one engineer as like a part-time thing for him.…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Wiz landed a Fortune 10 company as its first paying customer
“Our first paying customer was a fortune 10 company.”
Opinion
Chris Degnan: MongoDB and Wiz built world-class sales organizations
“Yeah, I look at companies like MongoDB, companies like Wiz, or, you know, Dolly Rogic, you know, or Cedric Pesh. Those guys built world-class sales organizations. They developed those people. There's grind in a lot of those young people that they've developed.…”
Prediction Held up
Wiz Deal Approval Will Trigger a Big Tech Acquisition Spree
“I think if Wiz gets approved, I think Every other large Mac seven company is going to see a green light in regards to making big, splashy acquisitions again, which is a good thing.”
Insight
Goldberg: Great companies expand TAM by increasing product surface area
“I mean, if you look at, you know, I was very fortunate to see some amazing companies from index from the early days, whether it was a Figma, whether it was a whiz, whether it was a data dog companies that, you know, have been able to build TAM by just increasi…”
Assertion Partly supported
Lemkin: Wiz grew from $0 to $500M ARR in four years
“This is a company that has gone from nothing to five hundred million in four years, ok?”
Assertion Supported
Motamedi: Wiz Raised Series A at $500M Valuation with Zero ARR
“Wiz, when they raised their Series A at a five hundred million dollar valuation, had zero in ARR.”
Disclosure
Casado: a16z has no investments in cloud security posture management
“We don't even have a bet in cloud security posture management, right? Like the laceworks and the orcas and the whizzes, right?”
Assertion Supported
Wiz was originally named Beyond Networks and focused on network security
“Wiz was actually called at the beginning Beyond Networks, and we would talk to CISO security teams, and we would kind of pitch them on this Network idea.”