The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 33 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Driscoll: Meta and SpaceX rented compute after failing to build AI assets
“Two companies Have done the same thing, which is buy a load of compute to build proprietary assets, fail to build those assets, and then bring that, and then decide instead to sell that compute to others, and both of them have had a very positive market recept…”
Stebbings: SpaceX closes $60B takeover of Cursor
“SpaceX closes the sixty billion dollar all stock takeover of cursor, minting thousand X returns for the likes of Alipartovia Neo. Open AI startup fund is a mega winner who invested six to eight million dollars very early, which Rory, I thought of you when you …”
Lemkin: SpaceX IPO will be a dud and will not trade up
“I think the IPO nominally will be a dud. I don't think it will trade up dramatically.”
Lemkin: Elon Musk will force underwriters to meet SpaceX target IPO valuation
“I think Elon, what Elon said Publicly on X, it ain't going to be two trillion. Maybe he'll change his mind. He said two trillion was too high. So whatever his number is, I think he's going to get it on IPO day. He's going to will it into existence. The underwr…”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic and SpaceX's next funding rounds will be IPOs
“You've got to believe that the next round for this, Antropic, and SpaceX are all public offerings.”
Stebbings: SpaceX acquired xAI in a $1.25T combined valuation merger
“Last few hours, or 24 hours, SpaceX has completed the acquisition of XAI, valuing the combined private company at 1.25 trillion, as Elon moves to pair the businesses together.”
O'Driscoll: Founders Fund's SpaceX deal will return $50B–$100B
“There's no doubt in a world where one investment might return 50 to a hundred Billion dollars. Everyone else has to feel just a teeny tiny tad irrelevant compared to that return for founders fund and good on them. It's a 20 year compounder at 50% plus or minus…”
Calacanis: SpaceX will go public at a valuation of $1T or more
“Tesla had to IPO. Now it was a different time. It really barely had any revenue, but same guy running them. It IPO'd at 1.7 billion, which seemed very expensive. 1.7 billion. The sister company will IPO at 1.7 trillion or one trillion.”
O'Driscoll: SpaceX Valued Over 40x Run Rate at $15B Revenue
“Doing fifteen billion dollars, growing plus or -30%. This year, that's a pretty hefty valuation. I mean, that's, you know, north of 40 times run rate for a company this year growing 30.”
Moore: SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic will reach multi-trillion dollar outcomes
“We're talking about going from talking about 30 to fifty billion dollar outcomes to multi-trillion dollar outcomes in the form of SpaceX or OpenAI or Anthropic.”
Stripe and SpaceX Will Not Go Public in 2024
“I don't expect Stripe or SpaceX to go out next year, and Databricks alone won't be enough to crack open the IPO windows.”
Palmer Luckey: SpaceX and Palantir Were Defense's Only Recent Unicorns
“And when I looked at national security, it was a very interesting space where the only two unicorns in the last 30 years in defense, Palantir and SpaceX, were both founded by people who had just sold their company for billions of dollars.”
Lemkin: SpaceX Is Allocating 30% of Its IPO to Retail Investors
“Elon's putting 30% of the, you know, this massive IPO, the largest in history so far, into retail.”
O'Driscoll: SpaceX revenue run rate is around $20 billion
“For context, the total SpaceX revenue run rates around twenty billion.”
O'Driscoll: SpaceX generates $18 billion in revenue growing at 20%
“The existing business is eighteen billion growing 20%, so it's not obvious that it's worth a hundred times trailing revenues for 20%.”
Stebbings: Founders Fund deployed $3B in under 12 months into mega-rounds
“Founders Fund, deploying three billion in under 12 months, but deploying it into Stripe, SpaceX, and Anduril.”
O'Driscoll: Starlink revenue surpassed the US government as SpaceX's top customer
“The truth is SpaceX, it's just such an amazing achievement that even if your, what was your largest customer, interestingly, is now no longer your largest customer because Starling is such a big business.”
Akhund: Space tech currently has only three functional markets
“There's, like, basically three existing markets in space tech. There's rockets, right? Like, getting things up and down, which obviously SpaceX dominates. There's taking pictures from space and That's actually, like, pretty big market, like, forty billion doll…”
O'Driscoll: SpaceX and OpenAI are the only $100B+ private compounders
“It all boils, the deciding between does this strategy work or not, is other companies that compound from a hundred billion to four hundred billion in the private markets before they go public. And right now there's two. There's SpaceX, There's open AI.”
Most Value in Tesla and SpaceX Was Created After Year 10
“At the 10 year mark was some of the greatest gains. If you look at, okay, at the 10 year mark, where it was Tesla, where it was SpaceX. And there were many, many billions of dollars, hundreds of billions of dollars of value creation still to come.”
Randle: Prediction markets show 70% odds of Tesla-SpaceX merger in two years
“If you look at the poly market Calci odds on a Tesla SpaceX merger, again, you know, not, not that those markets are so big that they're that indicative, but I think the probability that they have on there is something like 70% in the next two years or somethi…”
O'Driscoll: Polymarket pricing gave SpaceX a 50-60% chance at $2T IPO
“Polymarket said the probability of SpaceX being worth two trillion dollars on the IPO went up to 50, 60%, right? From a lower number, right?”
Stebbings: Founders Fund closing $6B in new capital after deploying $3.3B in 11 months
“Founders Fund are closing in on six billion dollars of new funds. They invested the last 3.3 in 11 months in amazing businesses like SpaceX and Stripe and Anduril.”
Hinrikus: SpaceX Has Faced Zero Liquidity Issues as a Private Company
“You know, the best example of all is maybe SpaceX today. It's a private company has had zero liquidity issues. So there is a secondary market always open.”
Suster: SpaceX spin-outs exceed 100 companies raising over $10B
“So there's been more than a hundred spin-outs now from SpaceX, more than a hundred. They've raised more than ten billion dollars, and the vast majority of them are in Los Angeles.”
Founders Fund put $40M into SpaceX from a $200M fund
“And I think even Founders Fund, you know, I mean, back, back in Founders Fund too, I mean, SpaceX was a, basically a forty million dollar position out of a two hundred million dollar fund, and it was a rocket company.”
SpaceX and Planet's 2015 Fundraising Doubled All Prior Space VC
“So we invested in two, exactly two space companies, Planet and SpaceX. They raised 1.1 billion dollars in 2015, and that alone was double all venture capital in the space sector combined forever, meaning prior.”
Ralston: Tesla was $445M in debt during SpaceX's early launch failures
“I remember hearing Elon Musk talk about what it was like for him when Tesla was something like four hundred and forty five million dollars in debt. And the first three launches of SpaceX had blown up”
Stebbings: Tiny Capital has invested in Superhuman, SpaceX, Pitch, and Buffer
“Tiny does also invest in businesses, including the likes of Superhuman, SpaceX, Pitch, and Buffer, to name a few.”
SpaceX began as a temporary project to photograph a plant on Mars
“SpaceX with all of its grand and glory was started as effectively almost as like a Hollywood ask moonshot project to just like take a photo of a plant on Mars, and Elon was going to find some Russian rockets to just send a bunch of stuff to Mars, cameras, take…”
Singerman: Joined Founders Fund after Sean Parker introduction during SpaceX deal evaluation
“And that's when I met Sean Parker and we became friends and he. Said, Hey, why don't you check out what we're doing at Founders Fund? And I came in and that's when we were considering a little investment in a company called SpaceX and, you know, said, this is …”