The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 16 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lemkin: SpaceX market valuation will triple in 2026 driven by retail investors
“I'm going to take this bet that it's going to trade up three X, In twenty-twenty-six, just based on GameStoppers driving it up.”
Jason Lemkin: SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic combined IPO values will top past 20 years
“The big three, SpaceX plus OpenAI plus Anthropic, their value at IPO will exceed every other IPO for the last 20 years combined.”
Stebbings: Menlo to make $10B carry on Anthropic, Founders Fund more on SpaceX
“Menlo will make ten billion dollars in carry Spot will too, plus Founders Fund will make more than that from SpaceX.”
Lemkin: SpaceX, Canva, Databricks, and Anthropic will IPO in 2026
“I think we see four IPOs backloaded next year. SpaceX goes out first. Canva comes out of nowhere second. Databricks does it in the back half of the year because it's just time. Anthropic does it at the end of the year. OpenAI probably should have gone first, b…”
Reyes: Nvidia will likely hit a $10 trillion market cap within three years
“I think that there's a real serious chance that if we let SpaceX Be worth two or three trillion, then NVIDIA probably is worth 10. And so I think that the answer's likely yes.”
Randle predicts SpaceX stock price will be lower in six months
“I would personally probably take the under in six months, not because I don't think that the company is going to be valued extremely well... But if I had to go over under, I'd go under from six months from now.”
O'Driscoll: Anthropic still has over 50% chance of IPOing this year
“I mean, statistically, more than 50%, yes, because in a world where this doesn't get solved for four or five months, there's so many other problems that our heads are gonna hurt, right? So you have to say, if a problem, in a world where it does get solved, the…”
O'Driscoll: Starlink Will Drive Most of SpaceX's Value by 2030
“I think Starlink will be the vast portion of the value. The value, I don't think data centers in space will be a meaningful percentage of revenue.”
O'Driscoll: SpaceX valuation will remain below $3 trillion post-IPO
“I'm comfortable in saying it'll be below, okay, I'll tell you what, I'll take, I'm comfortable below three. I mean, I'll totally take that bet.”
O'Driscoll: Markets won't sustain a $400B valuation bump from Musk's fab announcement
“I am significantly more skeptical That six months from now, people are going to attribute another 400 billion of value to a statement that I'm going to build a fab.”
O'Driscoll: Four or more venture exits will top $65B in 5-7 years
“If there's not four exits, Above sixty five billion in the next five or seven years, then the people who bought Stripe, SpaceX, Databricks, OpenAI and Antropic are screwed. So I don't think they're screwed. So I think there's going to be, this trend is going t…”
Pishevar: SpaceX will become a $10 trillion company
“So I think SpaceX will be a 10 trillion dollar company. It's just getting started.”
O'Driscoll: SpaceX is the highest-returning VC deal ever in absolute dollars
“This is the best Venture capital deal ever in terms of absolute return.”
O'Driscoll: Ontario Teachers' Pension Plan will make over $10B on SpaceX
“Who will make, I think, over ten billion dollars from their SpaceX. To clarify, I know you think the entire Midwest is the same, Harry, but I think it's Ontario teachers.”