The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 8 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Lemkin: Shopify and Monday will be killed by vertical AI startups
“So they're going to get killed by the startup that does it. They're going to get killed. Killed.”
Jason Lemkin Feb 26, 2026 ▶ 16:39 Citrini Research Breakdown: Agents, "Ghost GDP", Consumer Spend | Figma Earnings Beat · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Coates: Shopify competes directly with Amazon today
“Well, I mean, Shafak meets with Amazon today. Oh, absolutely. Hundred percent. Hundred percent.”
Glen Coates Mar 8, 2023 ▶ 45:04 Glen Coates: Why Shopify Will Dominate Amazon; How Microsoft Made Smartest Move of 2023 | E986 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Tobi Lütke aims to keep Shopify headcount flat with 100x AI productivity
“My real hope is seven and a half to 8000, right? Like at a hundred x productivity level, right?”
Tobi Lütke May 4, 2026 ▶ 16:43 Shopify CEO on How AI is a Scapegoat for Mass Layoffs & Trump Derangement Syndrome in Canada · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Lemkin: Three of today's top six B2B stocks will retain 2026 leadership
“My Pekumumusukus, Pekumumusukus, Palantir, Cloudflare, Mongo, Shopify, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, I'll bet you 10 grand, three of them are in the top six of this cohort at the end of next year.”
Jason Lemkin Dec 22, 2025 ▶ 40:01 Predictions for 2026: Top Buy & Biggest Short | Why Salesforce Could Win & NVIDIA’s Challenges · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Lemkin: Shopify will shrink to 7,000 employees while growing 200%
“Shopify is gonna be at 7000 to 200% bigger.”
Jason Lemkin Aug 14, 2025 ▶ 1:04:00 Sam Altman's Masterplan or a Gift to Anthropic? Palantir & Shopify Crush Earnings · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Rajaram: Shopify will not build a competing product to Klaviyo
“I don't think Shopify will build it. Shopify is an investor, and Shopify, I think, has decided, at least in my opinion, that this is, Shopify has these things called missions, and I think they've decided this is not part of their mission to build this product.…”
Gokul Rajaram Mar 16, 2026 ▶ 14:00 Gokul Rajaram: How to Analyse for Durability and Defensibility in a World of AI · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Open
Lemkin: Only 25% of Shopify's revenue is enterprise
“Even today, Shopify is very enterprise. Only 25% of their revenue is, is an enterprise.”
Jason Lemkin Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 34:21 Daniel Gross and Nat Friedman: Acquired by Meta | Microsoft Layoff 9000 People | OpenAI's Bombshell · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2117
Shopify aims to build an independent 100-year company
“We want to stay a large, independent business for a very long time. We want to build a hundred-year company, and at some point, being a publicly traded business, it makes it easier to be a long-term company, and so it just made sense for us.”
Harley Finkelstein May 12, 2017 ▶ 20:29 20VC: Building Shopify From $5m To IPO, Why The Future Of Retail Is Not Online vs Offline & Why Law School Is Like Finishing School For Entrepreneurs with Harley Finkelstein, COO @ Shopify
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