why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 8 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Lemkin: Shopify and Monday will be killed by vertical AI startups
“So they're going to get killed by the startup that does it. They're going to get killed. Killed.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Coates: Shopify competes directly with Amazon today
“Well, I mean, Shafak meets with Amazon today. Oh, absolutely. Hundred percent. Hundred percent.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Tobi Lütke aims to keep Shopify headcount flat with 100x AI productivity
“My real hope is seven and a half to 8000, right? Like at a hundred x productivity level, right?”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Lemkin: Three of today's top six B2B stocks will retain 2026 leadership
“My Pekumumusukus, Pekumumusukus, Palantir, Cloudflare, Mongo, Shopify, CrowdStrike, Snowflake, I'll bet you 10 grand, three of them are in the top six of this cohort at the end of next year.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2028
Lemkin: Shopify will shrink to 7,000 employees while growing 200%
“Shopify is gonna be at 7000 to 200% bigger.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Rajaram: Shopify will not build a competing product to Klaviyo
“I don't think Shopify will build it. Shopify is an investor, and Shopify, I think, has decided, at least in my opinion, that this is, Shopify has these things called missions, and I think they've decided this is not part of their mission to build this product.…”
Assertion Open
Lemkin: Only 25% of Shopify's revenue is enterprise
“Even today, Shopify is very enterprise. Only 25% of their revenue is, is an enterprise.”
Prediction Open · timeframe May 2117
Shopify aims to build an independent 100-year company
“We want to stay a large, independent business for a very long time. We want to build a hundred-year company, and at some point, being a publicly traded business, it makes it easier to be a long-term company, and so it just made sense for us.”