The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 13 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2036
Cohen: Form-based software like Salesforce will be obsolete within 10 years
“I think I called out Salesforce back then, as I cannot imagine people using something like this in the next 10 years. I think AI accelerates this.”
Ariel Cohen Feb 7, 2026 ▶ 16:44 20VC: From $6.2BN Market Cap to $2.8BN: What Is Not Translating About Navan's Public Story | Are Any Public Company CEOs Actually Happy? | Why Navan Built It's Own Customer Service AI and What it Could Mean For Customer Service AI with Ariel Cohen
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Lemkin: Drift Is Completely Dead After Being Banned by Salesforce
“They kicked Drift off five months ago. Drift will never come back. It is dead. It is completely dead.”
Jason Lemkin Dec 4, 2025 ▶ 16:58 Eventbrite Sold for $500M, Databricks $5B Raise at $134B Valuation & Why SaaS is Like Japan · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2030
Varun Mohan: Salesforce won't be dethroned by database-plus-agent competitors
“It's very unlikely to me that what's going to happen is Salesforce will get dethroned by a company that is just a database with an agent operating on top of it. It just, there's too much inertia for the company building out these complex workflows.”
Varun Mohan Jun 2, 2025 ▶ 42:17 Windsurf CEO & Co-Founder, Varun Mohan: AI's Biggest Acquisition to Date! · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2033
Salesforce Will Lose Its Top CRM Market Position Within 10 Years
“So I would say I am bearish on Salesforce ability to stay number one over the next decade.”
Jean-Denis Greze Jul 21, 2023 ▶ 39:32 Jean-Denis Greze: CTO of Plaid, the $18B Fintech Startup; How to Hire, Fire & Build Great UX | E1038 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2029
Lemkin: Monday.com Will Churn Faster Than HubSpot and Salesforce
“The Mondays will churn faster than HubSpot, right? And HubSpot will churn faster than Salesforce. It's just delayed churn, right? That, that's the thing is, you know, ServiceNow takes you 10 years to get off that platform.”
Jason Lemkin Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 1:33:23 Thrive Raises New $10B Fund | OpenAI Buys OpenClaw | Stripe at $140B: Is Adyen Wildly Undervalued? · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2034
Motamedi: Sales reps won't use Salesforce's interface in 10 years
“And I would argue in 10 years, sales reps won't even know what the Salesforce UI looks like because the interface to the underlying system of record has changed.”
Saam Motamedi Jul 15, 2024 ▶ 19:01 Saam Motamedi: Why Series B Won’t Make Money & Why $1M ARR is a BS Milestone for Series A | E1177 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2031
Jerry Murdock: Salesforce won't melt overnight and will survive long-term
“Salesforce is like a Mount Everest, right? It's an 8000 meter peak sitting there. It's not going to melt overnight. That thing is going to be around for a long time.”
Jerry Murdock Feb 28, 2026 ▶ 17:57 The SaaS Apocalypse: Who Lives & Who Dies | Insight Partners Co-Founder, Jerry Murdock · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2025
Benioff: Salesforce Will Add 1,000 to 2,000 Salespeople Short-Term
“We'll have more salespeople next year because we need to really explain to everybody exactly the value that we can achieve with AI. So we will add another probably one to 2000 salespeople in the short term.”
Marc Benioff Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 12:58 Marc Benioff, Salesforce Founder: Why Salesforce Isn't Hiring Software Engineers | E1236 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2027
Benioff: Salesforce Will Move Its Entire Company Onto Agentforce
“That I've moved my whole support infrastructure to the agentic platform. I will move my whole sales platform to the agentic platform as well. I'll move my whole company onto agent force for no other reason what to show my customers what is possible.”
Marc Benioff Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 18:50 Marc Benioff, Salesforce Founder: Why Salesforce Isn't Hiring Software Engineers | E1236 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2028
Seibert: OpenAI won't build direct Notion or Salesforce competitors
“I would doubt if opening eye goes and builds like an ocean competitor or an HR or Salesforce competitor or so on, they probably want to stay at the more generic level”
Jeff Seibert Nov 22, 2023 ▶ 27:49 Jeff Seibert: Why OpenAI Will Become an Infrastructure Play | E1085 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2026
O'Driscoll: Analysts will soon press Benioff on Salesforce AI agent API calls
“And I'm willing to bet in a quarter or two, someone's going to be asking Benioff for how many calls to your agent, your headless API did you get?”
Rory O'Driscoll Apr 30, 2026 ▶ 12:41 Anthropic Raises $45B but Falls Short on Compute & Thoma Bravo Hand Back Medallia Keys to Creditors · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Benioff: Salesforce Overall Workforce Will Likely Be Larger in Five Years
“I think we'll probably be larger.”
Marc Benioff Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 12:23 Marc Benioff, Salesforce Founder: Why Salesforce Isn't Hiring Software Engineers | E1236 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2024
Benioff: Salesforce Market Cap Tripled to Mid-$300B in Two Years
“So we ended up in the mid three hundred billion dollars in market cap. And, you know, when I think back I think our stock was about one third this value two years ago, one third.”
Marc Benioff Dec 9, 2024 ▶ 5:45 Marc Benioff, Salesforce Founder: Why Salesforce Isn't Hiring Software Engineers | E1236 · 20VC with Harry Stebbings
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